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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

NoSnowATL said:
Its the only one though. Looking at all the MJO models I can’t see a month of cold for the SE. he has to think it’s going into 8,1. I might be wrong.


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Let’s hope he’s right and what you see is wrong
 
Last post on the EPO. Makes you wonder if the EPO is really going to go negative. We’ve been head faked a couple of times this winter. It hasn’t been negative all winter and EPS says it stays that way through most of Jan at the least.

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SD said:
You have to think whatever is going on in the d7-11 period may be an appetizer for the main fun arriving in the d14-20 range. As this pattern amplifies and matures we could go really cold with the main action forced well south.

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Hmmm, reminds me of another time we had warm temps in January in the 70s, and then a smaller round of winter weather later in the month, followed by the big show.
 
SD said:
Yeah the eps in the d10-16 take a little luster off of things for me. If it ever goes all in with the big epo ridge and pv getting stretched over the pole I might die in excitement. That said the geps are on team gefs.

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It’s never easy :)

This still looks promising and can easily trend better.

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Going back to short term, hrrr spits out some insane CAPE values tommorow in East NC, soundings remind me of late spring, this is not typical for January and it’s probably a bit overdone, but these soundings do support a elevated hail risk with solid cape in the HGZ and dry air aloft and a WBZ wayy below 700mb, also some solid flow at 500mb still, feels weird talking about this in mid January...5D95A3B1-BFC5-46D4-B21A-0BA08E073777.png
 
KyloG said:
It’s never easy :)

This still looks promising and can easily trend better.

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Oh no doubt things look good through d16. I guess I'm just getting greedy and wanting the full blown massive Alaskan ridge and pv lobe over hudson bay pattern. Its just been so long since we had a long duration positive pattern, yes late December 17 into Jan 18 was good from a cold perspective but it failed down my way on the snow side

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SD said:
Oh no doubt things look good through d16. I guess I'm just getting greedy and wanting the full blown massive Alaskan ridge and pv lobe over hudson bay pattern. Its just been so long since we had a long duration positive pattern

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I’m right there with you. I don’t like the 2 steps forward one step back. Yeah the net is still forward but we can’t unsee the 0z EPS run from this morning.
 
STJ is juiced

18z GFS @ 222

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Yeah for short range stuff, it's been thundering since lunch for me seemingly, finally seeing some lightning flashes. More thunder/lightning than that period with the severe warning, although it's otherwise not bad.
 
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