D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Guess he forgot about the blizzard of 93
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
reverse psychology people. I guess y’all missed it. Relax. I want it to snow.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Anyone checked the decadelies?
I'm now casting
NorthGaWinter4
Member
That’s a good look
Okay, I had a feeling that they were probably from a private/paid service. But, I thought I'd ask, no big deal.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
I don't think I buy those 2m temps with 850s cold enough. I generally tend to think 2m temps take care of themselves if the mid-levels are cool enough, at least if precip is heavy enough.
Nomanslandva
Member
Agree. Maybe it is because it is dinner time and precip is just moving in/getting started??
Stormlover
Member
But it's not based on anything...for example
Agreed. However, did you see how dramatically further south the low is this run?
Yes that’s is a near perfect low track for a lot of us, just need it a little colder
Euro is a great track but the 900-sfc layer is ugly. That being said at D6+ I will take my chances that we can get just enough help from the 1031 over Maine to have at least a doable profile in the lowest 100mb
Looking at the imagery above and the bent isobars over Flordia (where the center would likely go/do its thing), is exactly a track that would be needed for I-20 North in this area. Something I have not seen in a while, as we enter Climo period for this area.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We rarely torch or are significantly AN when the center of the ridge is over the Hudson Bay, especially w/ a strong southern jet. Strong +EPOs are very much an anti-SE ridge pattern
If we dropped enough melting snow into that we might be able to cool that 925 layer to 0
give me cold 850s and ill worry about the bl temps closer to time. been screwed too many times with warm noses so i'll take the risk of a warm bl that rates need to overcome.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Epic torch.
NoSnowATL
Member
Correct. Just based off my feeling. It’s all good. I hope the CFS is actually right.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Definitely very close (local sounding near CLT) just cool it down 2-3 degrees and bam, we definitely have time to do that, a green flag that I’d watch is how steep those 3-6km lapse rates are, which would help out with rates/more Convective precip
One thing is for certain ... I can’t find one model that’s heading in any direction of warmth heading into February ... it’s actually looks fairly cold lol ... AN winter may be in jeopardy ??
AN winter is all but a lock at this point..but maybe we can scrap something together to get what we’re all here for
As y’all have said, the changes in the 0z euro vs 12z run are laughable. Lol. This 1st system, mid next week, has some potential. I think there might be another one late next week also.
I love pivotal weather but it’s difficult uploading images here sometimes because file size to large. Lol
I love pivotal weather but it’s difficult uploading images here sometimes because file size to large. Lol
I just SS and crop it to a minimum, and if that doesn’t work I SS the pic Again and somehow it takes up less
There's no way that AN winter (DJF) is in jeopardy. It is about as much as lock as it can possibly be on 1/23. Do the math.
Screen shot
NCSNOW
Member
Correct. However I've been going with -1 the last 42 days of met winter at GSO. Thats doable. sitting at -4.6 so far. But to the point Dec, Jan will be so much +, that it would take like a -10 or greater Feb to pull it back down for the whole 90 day period. That aint happening as you stated. Just glad we salvaged the 2cnd half even if its normal or slightly BN. Hopefully we all can sneak in a accumulating event to save face. Before the gnats and 70 DP's return for 6 months.
I thought so. Might have to make the image smaller size again. Lol. Ty
packfan98
Moderator
There's a little noise on the EPS for the I-85 corridor. Maybe someone can post the members when they are available.
NCSNOW
Member
I still think we have a shot at a storm late next week too.
GSP has issued winter weather advisories. Waiting on Blacksburg. Mostly an escarpment event but hoping for a pellet of sleet.
NCSNOW
Member
Euro Op:
