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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Big dog incoming foothills/mtns. Shame it’s still several days out
 
The ECMWF and GFS MJO forecasts continue to correct towards a higher amplitude and longer duration phase 7 event and we’re probably going to end up in phase 8, which is also no slouch when it comes to producing winter storms in NC during Jan. It’s no coincidence imo that the EPS continues to get better just after Jan 20th w/ higher ensemble snow means and probabilities when its MJO forecast is growing more amplified into phase 7 during that time (& history + published literature says it will continue to correct towards a higher amplitude phase 7 event in the coming days).

January MJO phase 7 strikes again.

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Lol


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Despite being a little far out, one huge positive factor namely for NC, is that wiggle room appears to exist to our south. Meaning we can pull the rug a little from Alanna GA to southern Charlotte NC with mix or rain while heavy snow accumulates for areas like Winston-Salem. Of course, no one wants to hear that and certainly too far out to know how good Frosty is sitting up in Surry County NC.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Gfs always overdoes those type of high pressures in the long range that’s why I believe it was said to avoid looking at those type of details that far out cause they will smooth out .. nothing about the Gfs looks terrible right now
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Absolutely. Given the pattern we are entering according to the ensembles I would not be surprised to see things trend colder in the medium and short range. As long as the pattern supports cold in the east we have seen the gfs trend favorably in this way. It just seems like it’s been forever since we have actually been in a pattern where that happens.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah Mountains/Foothills gets hit hard by the phaser...unfortunately for everyone else it cuts inland and warmer air floods in.
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If the GFS was not so dang progressive in the northern stream and the high pressure can hang around longer we are talking big dog. Just small changes are needed, so that’s good. Only negative here is I prefer to see the GFS suppressed at this range.
 
Stormdoc said:
If the GFS was not so dang progressive in the northern stream and the high pressure can hang around longer we are talking big dog. Just small changes are needed, so that’s good. Only negative here is I prefer to see the GFS suppressed at this range.
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Yeah you can see the Euro members Ollie posted the wide range of possiblities of this system....from an early phase to one that doesn't phase until it's off the eastern seaboard. One thing that remains consistent of that someone in the East is getting a massive snow from this.
 
Basically what we’re seeing is the models doing exactly what the models should be doing. Trying to figure out this pattern but of course it’s too far out so you’re going to get a bunch of different solutions cause they can’t figure out the evolution of these small pieces of energy plus high pressure placement this far out... that’s why at this juncture we need to be locked into the ensembles and nothing more .. once we get into the 4-7 day window operationals will be more telling
 
FWIW 12z gefs mean is a little better than 6z. Timing is everything
 
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