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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Ethan80963 said:
I believe this is that system now and the low placement is much better than the 18z run. However temps are an issue this run being in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s
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That 540 line continues to creep closer and closer to the south .. absolutely crazy things seem to be going .. our way as of right now ... interesting pattern we’re heading into with ample energy
 
I’d truly love to be on this band wagon however it’s a little too early for me. I’m still recovering after what seemed to be like a promised blizzard a few weeks ago that turned out to be quite the opposite, on the bright side I am enjoying the seasonable temperatures! Let’s hope for the best! ❄️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is a mess I honestly can’t explain rn View attachment 31779
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I know right! I was taking glances at the surface and I could tell that the 500mb was a mess. Something with great significance can happen with those three pieces of energy. Hopefully the models will have a better handle on things within 2-3 days for that time window... watch for those trends and consistancy!
 
Totals aren’t bad. Wake county cutoff in laughable.
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I think our best chance is prob the one for late next week. The early to mid next week looks ok, but I think the better shot is the one after.
 
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
 
Ensembles are very barren for this far South. Of course the extended Euro ensemble charts show more promise, but they have all season only to change to rain as they get into a shorter range.

I feel better for TN across through NC & VA versus the deep South (right now.)
 
Poimen said:
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
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I think winter is over for everyone south of Tennessee and North Carolina. Just my opinion.


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Poimen said:
Serious question: other than it looks like a less than torchy pattern, is there anything to really be excited about going forward? I mean, I don’t see any signs of being able to really tap into the arctic in the next 7-10 days and I don’t trust anything beyond that time frame.
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No, not really. The storm track isn't favorable. There is no strong high pressure. Outside of a storm taking a perfect track and bombing out, I don't see how we will see a bona fide winter storm. I guess we can try to shoehorn in the above scenario, but the odds are very poor, the way it looks now.

We're still at least 10 days away from potentially seeing somewhat of a better pattern. But as you indicated, there's not much reason to put a lot of stock in hoping for something at that range to work out.
 
I have yet to see the ensembles scream for a threat in this area this Winter. There were a couple GEFS runs that had many members, but usually the Euro would shut that idea down quick.

Regardless of the GFS upgrades, Euro for the most part, is still king. It gets a bad wrap when it busts some major forecasts up North.. but I truly believe it's the most consistent model available to the world and we have to respect it, and ask ourselves : "how can the other modeling be wrong?" instead of "when will the Euro bite?"

Euro has and will generally handle 500mb better. That's where it matters. I've heard on the old GFS they have taken the Euro's initialization data and fed it to the GFS and it would spit out more accurate forecasts than the Euro. I don't know what we need to change, but initial variables and data may be a good start instead of all this "WE HAVE TO CATCH UP WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT"... maybe lets ingest better data first.
 
Rain Cold said:
No, not really. The storm track isn't favorable. There is no strong high pressure. Outside of a storm taking a perfect track and bombing out, I don't see how we will see a bona fide winter storm. I guess we can try to shoehorn in the above scenario, but the odds are very poor, the way it looks now.

We're still at least 10 days away from potentially seeing somewhat of a better pattern. But as you indicated, there's not much reason to put a lot of stock in hoping for something at that range to work out.
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Yeah as much as I wish it were different, it ain’t. If past is prologue then it’s cold chasing moisture or moisture coming in as cold retreats. I think maybe a legitimate chance for upper south and upper CAD regions but nothing really points to an I-20 threat or even an I-85 threat for north GA.


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To be more specific, they are waiting for the 12z suit models to come in.33003EB6-2A2B-4B60-8B97-00BAB53CEF5F.jpeg
 
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