Showmeyourtds
Member
as they say, rates can overcome. See Dec 2017 in Atlanta
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
as they say, rates can overcome. See Dec 2017 in Atlanta
So, I see the GFS has brought back the storm it was showing a week ago. Now it's showing it coming in a little later. The GIF I added was from the 18z run on Wednesday, Jan 15th. We have 10 days to real this one in!
Edit: What I'm saying is, I think this is how it's going to pan out from what it was showing a week ago.
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Need it track off shore about 100 miles for my area.
I mean it probably won't turn out exactly like what that run showed. Of course, there would be some differences. Overall though, I think that's how it would turn out for track of low and placement of snowfall. I did save the snowfall output from that run as well. (I'll post that in the Whamby.)
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Gfs has been consistent with next Fridays system for several runs now. It's definitely what I like to see at this range. Don't get caught up in the details till we get closer but the potential is defenatly there. This is the GFS wheelhouse for picking up systems too imho from watching models this season.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim, wasn't a whole lot of moisture w/ it on this run because there's a lot of synoptic-scale sinking on that backside of the cold front behind the low over Maine but it's definitely closer to something.
Not a big winter weather storm threat, but I guess it could trend to one of those storms with some initial slop before changeover if it can drag enough moisture north.
ATLwxfan
Member
Again we’re just trying to get some players on the field. Could get interesting around here.
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NorthGaWinter4
Member
Yeah. I’m getting December 2017 vibes from this one
I keep thinking of how the big ones show themselves long range. The EPS members were screaming this days ago.
Remarkably similar to GFS this far out, especially with so many moving parts
Holy cow. That is almost absolutely epic....
995 east of HSE.... driving rain storm
packfan98
Moderator
Euro is way too warm verbatim on this run. Rain all the way through the mid-atlantic regions.
Temps during the storm on the Euro
packfan98
Moderator
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely too warm, but I checked the soundings and if these were somewhat cooler we would have a big storm with a phase. It's good to see some agreement this far out between the GFS and Euro.
If only it were the middle of winter. In all seriousness though give me the low and the track, I'll sweat temps in about 8 days
I’m interested in seeing the control, the OP isn’t far from another storm after day ten.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ECMWF is a hot mess at 500mb, at least 3-4 shortwaves yet to be resolved within the streamflow. Better phasing with the northern stream entities would produce a stronger surface low, colder surface temps, and more widespread snow (& vis versa). I definitely wouldn't be too worried about surface temps 9 days out given the complexity of this kind of setup
Jon
Member
Speaking of, look how poorly the models have been with the PNA region at a 10 day lead. Good god. Euro in third place during this period, not something I’ve seen before. Yuge fail by the euro here.
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I disagree, I think it is indeed a winter storm threat for some areas.
NCSNOW
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Ehh not sure why anyone would get too bogged down by verbatim temps on the Euro thus far out.
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Note I said “big”, of course this winter seeing a few graupel pellets would be big?
I think that first one is going to be more difficult to get something going, but lays the ground work for the bigger one after.
Seems to be some noise on the EPS. 10 members showing some snow for my area between 2/1-2/5
EURO looks like it will have something on the "caboose" shortwave at the end.
Well I will say this, it appears the players are on the field and we might a good window of opportunity.
Downeastnc
Member
That storm was nuts, if I recall correctly we had quite a bit of ice with that one here, full grown pines bent over to the ground with a solid 1" of sleet on top....
Avalanche
Member
Yes, we all did. I remember it as a major ice maker. Couldnt get traction walking on anything.