Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Ollie Williams]

Wow! Apologize for any Weenie post I make about this EPS run, but that is the highest I’ve seen since the December storm.
A lot of big dogs mixed in this run. Crazy seeing that high confidence this far out.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Wow! Apologize for any Weenie post I make about this EPS run, but that is the highest I’ve seen since the December storm.
A lot of big dogs mixed in this run. Crazy seeing that high confidence this far out.
View attachment 30468
View attachment 30464View attachment 30465View attachment 30466

Wow. Has the probability of >1 gone up for Columbia SC since 12z?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Wow. Has the probability of >1 gone up for Columbia SC since 12z?

Yes, here is 12z

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[Ethan80963]

Many EPS members looking at a system around the 22nd. For example here’s GSP’s snow chart (converts all frozen precip to snow)

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Many EPS members looking at a system around the 22nd. For example here’s GSP’s snow chart (converts all frozen precip to snow)
View attachment 30469

Wow could you show Columbia SC?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Wow could you show Columbia SC?

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[Meteorologist1999]

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Wow big increase!

 

[Six Mile Wx]

The Jan 21-26 time period continues to produce in the ensembles.

 

[John1122]

I know its meaningless, but I'd love to have seen 24 more hours from that 06z GFS. Went colder again that run, keeps honking potential, hopefully in a few days its honking it for day 6-8 instead of 11-14.

 

[packfan98]

What a great looking pattern setting up by day 9 on all of the ensembles. It looks to have some staying power because all ensemble suites still look wonderful on day 15 and 16. Let’s get through this next week and see if we can’t get some winter storms for the SE!

 

[KyloG]

Below is the pattern 1-2 days before some of Raleigh’s bigger snowstorms over the past 20 years or so versus what the EPS/GEFS is modeling.

I would be curious to see what Atlanta’s is.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

0Z6Z

 

[Six Mile Wx]

If you haven’t read this then you should! This article really shows the limitations and biases of our current weather models. I’m looking forward to new AI machine learning models!

https://eos.org/opinions/artificial-intelligence-may-be-key-to-better-weather-forecasts

 

[Webberweather53]

It's not surprising to see a winter storm showing up on the EPS & GEFS in NC just after January 20th given this RMM MJO forecast, certainly may not materialize but there are legitimate reasons it's consistently there. I'm curious how this forecast evolves the next few days, I think we'll see the MJO end up somewhere in between the EPS & GEFS given their respective biases w/ the MJO in the West Pac.

 

[KyloG]

Here’s Atlanta’s composite versus Raleigh. Raleigh’s are the most recent bigger events since 96 and Atlanta’s is its top 10 snowfalls.

Top is Raleigh

Can see Atlanta has the NAO signature and deeper further south low practically over upstate NY.

Caveat this by saying it obviously can snow in other patterns.

 

[Stormlover]

Coldest air of the season looking to be a good bet: View attachment 30433

I hit 16 in early November here near Huntsville

 

[Jon]

Here’s Atlanta’s composite versus Raleigh. Raleigh’s are the most recent bigger events since 96 and Atlanta’s is its top 10 snowfalls.

Top is Raleigh

Can see Atlanta has the NAO signature and deeper further south low practically over upstate NY.

Caveat this by saying it obviously can snow in other patterns.

View attachment 30481View attachment 30482

How many events are in raleigh’s composite?


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[KyloG]

How many events are in raleigh’s composite?


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Maybe a dozen. I restricted to Jan 96 until present though.

 

[GaWx]

For the record and very much fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a moderate (and very rare) ZR in SE GA and far S SC 1/22-3 (see images below). This then leads into a major NE snowstorm with the next shortwave (see 3rd and 4th images). Interestingly, this combo of events is sort of similar to what happened in late January of 1922, when there was an historic deep SE ZR followed by a big snow in NC and then the NE US that is known as the tragic Knickerbocker Storm. As best as I can tell, that series of events, too, was due to two different back to back shortwaves. That winter was also mainly mild in the SE outside of late January.

 

[KyloG]

EPS snow trends