The CFS has the idea of a storm that can produce its own cold. It would be a sloppy wet snow.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
FWIW the EPS ensembles say the +PNA is here to stay for a while. Consensus actually grows through the end of the run and I’m guessing 90% of the members have a pretty positive PNA by the end of the run with some of those members frigid. I’m sure the mean is glorious for 360hrs.
We’ve been faked before, so it is what it is, but at this point it’s beautiful.
We’ve been faked before, so it is what it is, but at this point it’s beautiful.
Avalanche
Member
Western triad storm. Driving distance. Ill take it!!!
That LP in NE where we would love to see a HP is really jacking this up
The CFS is a thing of beauty. Go to: https://www.pivotalweather.com and run through the LR.
Yeah that mean from 324hrs to the end is legit. No just insane members skewing the trough in the east. Lots of agreement.
The EPS has some idea of a storm system. Note this is -3day totals.
Although most members are to the north, that would be due to temps.
Here is a Meteogram for KINT- Smith Reynolds Airport (Winston-Salem Forsyth County NC)
from a member perspective, just a few onboard.
Although most members are to the north, that would be due to temps.
Here is a Meteogram for KINT- Smith Reynolds Airport (Winston-Salem Forsyth County NC)
from a member perspective, just a few onboard.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Having a +PNA only is perfectly fine for getting a winter storm around here. ~10% of winter storms in NC (since 1948) coincided w/ a +PNA/+EPO/+WPO/+NAO. Also worth mentioning that of these 4 indices, the PNA by itself constitutes about 2x as many winter storms as any other index on its own. Also, the times that only one of the 4 indices (PNA, EPO, WPO, or NAO) were favorable (thus -EPO/-PNA/+WPO/+NAO, -WPO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA, etc.), nearly 50% of those cases featured a +PNA.
January 16-18 2018 is a good, very recent example of having an unfavorable NAO, WPO, EPO, & no 50-50 low, yet +PNA by itself was more than enough to produce a really nice winter storm in NC.
The pattern being modeled at day 11 on both the GEFS & EPS certainly bears some decent similarities to Jan 16-18 2018.
January 16-18 2018 is a good, very recent example of having an unfavorable NAO, WPO, EPO, & no 50-50 low, yet +PNA by itself was more than enough to produce a really nice winter storm in NC.
The pattern being modeled at day 11 on both the GEFS & EPS certainly bears some decent similarities to Jan 16-18 2018.
As you and most here know, we've been badly fooled numerous times this winter. So, whereas I'm always hopeful for a true cold dominated pattern finally getting here (and do expect that to actually start ~late Feb) and a cold looking EPS always excites the heck out of me, I'm not betting on it earlier than late Feb regardless of what the models are showing due to their horrible performance when it looks favorable for cold, especially until the indices overall get better. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me over and over, ...........
Hopefully, we won't need to wait til late Feb. Any earlier would be a huge bonus to me since I've not been expecting it. The MJO staying within or near the COD (a quick low amp 5) instead of going for another long, high amp 4/5 could only help imo.
With the current +AAM, maybe it will be different this time, especially if it lasts?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
With as much skepticism that's being hurled towards the favorable pattern being modeled in the longer-term, it's not like the basic state forcing won't be favorable for it this time. Unlike in the first half of winter, east Indian Ocean convection at this time of the winter (late January onward) actually favors cold & troughiness in the eastern US and this is precisely what the EPS is forecasting in early February.
Phase 2 MJO regressed 200mb height anomalies centered on February 10th.
Phase 2 MJO regressed 200mb height anomalies centered on February 10th.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Personally, I think once the forcing returns back to the Maritime Continent, we may see a return to a milder pattern (~mid Feb (ish)) but that remains to be seen. Fwiw, you can see the seeds of our favorable pattern's demise being sewn at the very tail end of the 12z EPS w/ our nice trough over the central North Pacific disintegrating, hinting at retrogression of our west coast ridge back to the NE Pacific (thus -PNA? (again))
pcbjr
Member
Heads or tails?
In all seriousness, late Feb has potential for places well north of Hogtown ... now whether y'all get anything then is a heads/tails proposition on January 22nd ...
Storm5
Member
Maybe it’s just me but it’s hard to get even remotely excited about that system late week next week that’s showing on the GFs . It’s not like it’s in the upper 30s and we just need a little temp help .
It’s mid to upper 40s for most verbatim . I’m more interested in the first week of February when the PNA looks to go positive . The 12z euro was headed in the right direction with the trailing shortwave . But it’s a long ass way out there
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It’s mid to upper 40s for most verbatim . I’m more interested in the first week of February when the PNA looks to go positive . The 12z euro was headed in the right direction with the trailing shortwave . But it’s a long ass way out there
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NCSNOW
Member
Ive always said that a + PNA is the higgest most favorable signal for the SE to root for. The mac -daddy of them all. Thanks Webb for those stats.
It's not just you. We've been chasing these turd duds all winter. It's all we've got, I guess, but this one is likely going to swirl around the toilet bowl too, unless it can find a magical way to get much stronger. I mean, I wouldn't rule out some wet flakes on the NW fringe, but that's about the extent of it, IMO.Maybe it’s just me but it’s hard to get even remotely excited about that system late week next week that’s showing on the GFs . It’s not like it’s in the upper 30s and we just need a little temp help .
It’s mid to upper 40s for most verbatim . I’m more interested in the first week of February when the PNA looks to go positive . The 12z euro was headed in the right direction with the trailing shortwave . But it’s a long ass way out there
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This is especially the case for folks like @pcbjr and myself in the deep SE because the correlation to cold is highest the deeper in the SE you are per charts I've seen.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Maybe it’s just me but it’s hard to get even remotely excited about that system late week next week that’s showing on the GFs . It’s not like it’s in the upper 30s and we just need a little temp help .
It’s mid to upper 40s for most verbatim . I’m more interested in the first week of February. The 12z euro was headed in the right direction with the trailing shortwave . But it’s a long ass way out there
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Surface temps are highly dependent on the interaction between the various shortwaves triggering this surface low, and the feedbacks between the nature of the phasing between those s/ws alters the strength & placement of the surface low which influences the amount of dynamical cooling and cold advection on the backside of the low and that causes variations in surface temps. While the model on this particular run shows upper 40s-50F, we actually don't know anywhere near enough information to assume that's going to be the case given the aforementioned statement(s).
Even the inner quartile range on the often underdispersed ensemble suites (like the EPS) is 6-7F & upwards of 10F+ in places. It's totally reasonable to assume we could be in the 60s (perhaps w/ thunder) or as cold as the mid-upper 30s w/ the possibility of wet snow. I'm not saying a cold/snowy solution is by any means probable-likely (it's almost certainly very unlikely atm), but rather I'm saying don't jump to conclusions about exactly how far we have to go wrt surface temps based on a single or a few operational model runs. Cold rain is by far & away the most likely solution atm but it's not set in stone either.
Patience RC! You’ve got to set the table before you can feast!
pcbjr
Member
If ... if ... if that happens, it's no snow for me (yet then is there ever?), but at least it's not shorts and t-shirts yet ... makes a gator very happy to see that map ... Thanks ...
The EPS never bought into the EPO going negative and we are currently in the modeled BN pattern...it wasn’t that bad. Yeah, pattern collapsed and the GEFS was really bad at tanking the EPO.
Indeed, the EPS never bought into the -EPO. And I don't think it has been bad as the GEFS overall. But don't forget that the EPS has had enormous swings from cold to much warmer in just one run. Example: Here's last Thursday's (1/16) 0Z EPS, which had solidly BN over virtually the entire US in the 11-15 (see images below) and which looked cold at the end:
0Z 1/16 6-10: cool SE, AN much of N US
0Z 1/16 11-15: cold SE and much of US
The very next run, 12Z on 1/16, had a whopping 24 fewer HDDs! From another BB per a met there:
"Yeah, that 12z EE was incredibly warmer. 24 less HDD's which is a ton for an ensemble in just 1 run."
12Z 1/16 6-10: N SE and A to MA much of N US
12Z 1/16 11-15: N SE and much of US
Then the next two EPS runs, the ones on 1/17, each continued the sharp warming to the point that the 12Z 1/17 run had an astounding 50+ fewer HDD than the 1/16 0Z run!!
12Z 1/17 6-10: A to MA much of US including SE
12Z 1/17 11-15: SE is a little AN; N to AN most of US other than SW
And the latest EPS (12Z on 1/22), despite some modest cool changes and a better look, is still AN much of the US in the 6-15 as it warmed a good bit further over the long weekend:
12Z 1/22 6-10: A to MA most of US
12Z 1/22 11-15: AN most of US
So, I'm advising extreme caution in buying into a colder pattern based on how the EPS looks in week 2. Perhaps it will be different this time?? Who the heck knows?
Note that the 1st 6 maps are 850 anomalies whereas the last 2 are 2 meter. That's because I have old 850s saved but not old 2 meter. I would have preferred to display only 2 meter maps if I could. But the general point is still clear.
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pcbjr
Member
Fabulous stuff!
Thanks, Larry!
Learn something and scratch the head simultaneously ... that's what this is all about ... well, that and folks who take the time to think and share ... so, really, thanks Larry!
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One of those weird cases where a +EPO/big Alaskan vortex is pumping our possible +PNA
I actually think this could* be our best shot. Yes, there won't be super cold air around, but we will have plenty of energy flying around and if we can actually time it right, EURO and GFS not far off, could be our best shot overall so far this lackluster winter.
Ron Burgundy
Member
I’m all in because I don’t think I’ll have another chance to be all in.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I'm right there with you.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
I was thinking the same thing. It’s really interesting how many possibilities exist in an ever changing system where there really is no cause & effect, it’s as if time is really just an illusion and each moment coexist with one another, as if there is a connection there. This is definitely an interesting period coming. Although not perfect which is completely fine, I’m just curious to see what the atmosphere decides to dish out these next few weeks.
ICON certainly looking interesting at the end of its run ... this storm is continuing to peak interest ... probably too warm tho .... unless ?
Boom!!
Avalanche
Member
Time for an old fashioned Mt Airy trip with that look!!
Believe it or not, Temps are decreasing as the storm gets going, verbatim, the snow line would most likely shift south.
Avalanche
Member
Didnt realize there was any CAA. Great news!!!
Looking at soundings on the GFS it was very close precip didn’t evaporate this run as much and temps were boarder line
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You’re looking at the wrong storm.
Oops I was
my bad
No problem. At least we still have more of the run to go, to see if the FV3 will bite.Oops i was
I believe this is that system now and the low placement is much better than the 18z run. However temps are an issue this run being in the mid 40’s
I’m not thinking that wave itself is going to work out, but the one behind it also has my attention. There are so many waves, that I can’t pinpoint which one I need to pay attention to.
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