Ilovesnow28
Member
Hmmm 
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Ilovesnow28
Member
Perfect low track even though this is in voodoo land and I'm probably just wasting my time posting these maps
MichaelJ
Member
Unfortunately, if the EURO is right, the MJO looks to be headed to phase 5 and at a fairly high amplitude over the next 20-30 days. It basically meanders around 5 until late February which could be the death knell for most in the SE wanting snow. Not saying it will end up being right but I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about it. We would need a miracle of timing and track to get lucky IMO if this occurs.
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This is some additional text that was in the Link I posted yesterday:
THIS UPGRADE REAFFIRMS OUR STRONG FOUNDATION OF HIGH-PERFORMANCE
COMPUTING, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SERIES OF TECHNOLOGY
TRANSFERS FROM RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS OPERATIONS. SUCH
UPGRADES ARE THUS ESSENTIAL IN ORDER TO PROVIDE CONTINUALLY IMPROVED
WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SERVICES TO CANADIANS,
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER USERS AND PARTNERS.
So it looks like the computing system upgrade they just did is going to allow them to actually start upgrading the model output itself in the near future.
pcbjr
Member
Amen ...
You said the key words, “until late February”. My best guess per analogs and an anticipated better MJO is that late Feb will be the time to start watching for the best shot this winter at a sustained (say 2-3 weeks) period of BN starting to dominate. So, patience will be needed for that.
In the meantime, although we will still imo likely average somewhat AN in early to mid Feb, I don’t think it will be outright torchy like most of Dec and early to mid Jan have been. We should have a lot of pleasant seasonable and even a few BN days mixed in even before late Feb. In other words, more normal winter wx overall. And of course these last few days have been quite cold!
Per the last few runs of the GFS and assuming they have somewhat of a clue, we won’t have any more muggy summerlike days anytime soon. Note that 850s look to stay below +10 vs having been in the torchy teens much of recent weeks. In contrast, we’ve now got the benefit of Ninoish +AAM though I need to get updated AAM forecasts.
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That's not a high amp phase 5. When it's near or within the circle, the MJO fluctuation doesn't have much of an influence. There are other major key factors within the pattern and not just the MJO, so results can vary. I do think the month of February will be better in terms of below normal temperatures and winter storm development verses this month.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's not a high amplitude phase 5 look because uncertainty and spread increase faster w/ range than actual signal. However, that doesn't necessarily mean a strong MJO event can't emerge in phase 5-6 again in February.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This basically means that MJO amplitude is artificially damped/weak (vs reality) (in most cases) at longer leads and most of this is attributable to spread within an ensemble suite (&/or biases) rather than something physical.
NC high country getting crushed at hour 222 (GFS)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is really close to being heavy, wet snow on this run from GSO-CLT and points west.
I would feel good about early Feb if I lived in WNC..they can kick ass and take names with marginal cold such as this. Big heavy rainers over the SE while places with elevation get buried
soundings aren't awful.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the GFS is finally starting to get the hint that it'll actually rain in Florida early next week. I definitely recall on the old GFS that if the low was suppressed down to Cuba around day 5, that was usually ?in the bank for a winter storm around here. Who knows, maybe one of these storms will actually continue trending NW inside day 3-4 instead of stalling out just far enough offshore.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even in the Atlanta area, this is pretty close to being wet snow w/ the melting layer below 900mb and surface temps in the upper 30s.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That GFS run basically just tried to do its best impression of the March 93 superstorm w/ 3 separate shortwaves phasing into the base of the trough over the Gulf coast.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Really not too far off. I'll be looking at the CMC and Euro to see if we come close.
So, I see the GFS has brought back the storm it was showing a week ago. Now it's showing it coming in a little later. The GIF I added was from the 18z run on Wednesday, Jan 15th. We have 10 days to real this one in!
Edit: What I'm saying is, I think this is how it's going to pan out from what it was showing a week ago.
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Edit: What I'm saying is, I think this is how it's going to pan out from what it was showing a week ago.
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Yeah gfs has trended to more NS phasing, which was once embedded in the Canadian ridge, nice western ridge, you gotta love/hate the Canadian ridge, helps shoves things/acts as blocking but it’s not really good for CAA 
Honestly I saw this earlier when looking at the models and was surprised it wasn’t showing more in the way of snow outside of the mountains. That looks like a really good storm track
To be inside 200hr, this is still a mess..I’ll be surprised if the CMC and Euro spit out something similar 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subtropical jet really juices up the day 9 storm on the GFS w/ a clear link from the central Pacific. The warm, moist conveyor belt for any storm that attempts to get going at the end of January into early February will be quite potent.
Some GEFS members a bit more north
That look at the end of the GFS ? ..several good looks actually..LR GFS I know yadda yadda..we might be able to work with this..until it changes again in 6 hours
I was taking a look at the Gulf SSTs and there is a warm blob of 26°C (about 80°F) which would induce convection/higher QPF? (Help me word that better?) with Gulf lows. I'm not sure if SSTs are above normal in the Gulf. (Still searching for SSTs maps for the Gulf.) @Webberweather53
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something funky may be brewing to start feb..the CMC had high pressure building in..really weird how it handled a wave entering British Columbia which in turn shoved that western ridge eastward and turned it horizontal..idk
whatalife
Moderator
Well...Let’s see what the doc has to say...
CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
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CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
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If we can phase in that other NS s/w it may be enough.
Everything was too positive tilt but looked like it had plenty of time to go negative..extrapolating a crappy model of courseWell...Let’s see what the doc has to say...
CMC doesn’t have much moisture with it. Mainly throwing this out here because of the 850 temps...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty drastic changes in 12 hrs on the GEFS for the storm early next week.
I’m calling it. The pattern we are in has been griped at and whined about. Watch it nail the SE with three straight winter storms.
as others have said, GFS was very close to a heavy wet snow for many across the SE. Here locally, you will notice once things get going a pocket of sub freezing temps at 850mb develops. The melting layer isn't awful, wouldn't take much more to fully support heavy wet snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A stronger surface low w/ more QPF & stronger cold advection would be able to take care of that.
yes sir I agree! I would think the EURO should have a storm, maybe not shown like this, but a bit further north from last nights run?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 12z GEFS 5-day averaged 850mb temperature anomalies were below normal the entire run in the SE US. Obviously, they're going to be a bit cooler than the 2-meter temps anomaly wise but still, it's far from the torch most were fearing.
You would have fun with that. Very nice UVVs in the DGZ.
Agreed. That H850 layer cools very quickly with the heavier precip. Nice look this far out.
