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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

GaWx said:
For at least the 10th or so run in a row, the Euro has flurries over much of metro Atlanta this morning or at least had as of 7AM, mainly NW metro. Anyone there see any? I want to know whether this verifies:

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I seen it on radar, but most of the moisture was drying up before reaching the ground. I did see like one flurry or two. It was just too dry at the surface. The snow was falling though just below the clouds I bet. Maybe next time it won't be so dry.
 
Rain Cold said:
The telles aren't impressive, but the image below is interesting. Don't recall seeing this kind of look before at H5, which makes me think it won't look this way in 16 days. Anyway, hopefully the GFS is onto something with the MJO.

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Maybe we will get a Montana Mauler, seems like I remember a storm sometime in the last 10-20 yrs that tracked like that, dropped in over Montana and came SE across the central plains and ended up giving us a big storm in the Carolina's....everyone kind of poo poo the models since that low track typically wouldn't do it for us and it ended up paying off.
 
Is there a record for number of cutters in a single season? ICON had an interesting system late that stayed south but the GFS cuts that on too. Just an endless parade of them this year. Also tabbed through the EPS members from last night and did not see any sort of storm signal:-(
 
GaWx said:
For at least the 10th or so run in a row, the Euro has flurries over much of metro Atlanta this morning or at least had as of 7AM, mainly NW metro. Anyone there see any? I want to know whether this verifies:

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Nothing here. The maps are too over the top. I sort of figured off of pivotal's soundings that the DGZ being dry was a sign.
 
The LR GEFS looks a lot like the most recent Euro weeklies except they have the AK vortex getting dislodged during the 2nd week of February, so it's possible we move towards that pattern but maybe the GEFS is accelerating it a bit (as usual). I'd love nothing more than to see a nice -EPO show up and dislodge all that cold air that's been bottled up in Alaska and to have it couple w/ the really active southern stream we've had this year.
 
GaWx said:
For at least the 10th or so run in a row, the Euro has flurries over much of metro Atlanta this morning or at least had as of 7AM, mainly NW metro. Anyone there see any? I want to know whether this verifies:

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Hey Larry,

Not sure about others, but I've been in the Roswell area and the Decatur area today & haven't seen a single flake. There were thick clouds this morning, but now the sun is out. If flakes were fallin', you needed to squint to see 'em...and as far as I'm concerned, it don't count if I have to squint.
 
baroowoofr said:
@SD I'm not sure, but I think maybe he is talking about the GWO field plots for AAM:


If that's what he's talking about then maybe he's arguing the transit will favor a more Nina type pattern.

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Where did you get the aam forecast?

It makes sense though when he was talking about the STJ collapse. If that's the case with northward momentum transport shouldn't we possibly see this at least try to go north and spike the pna/epo
 
SD said:
What is david gold talking about on Twitter? I understand the aam spike but the 8-1-2 transit has me confused
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He's talking about Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) phase space (and again the GWO is basically just AAM + the tendency of AAM).
When you're in a state of high-very high AAM which is often the case when you have central pacific-western hemisphere tropical convection, frictional torques will act to dampen the AAM anomaly, negative mountain torques will thus commence soon thereafter, and the positive angular momentum anomaly will begin to propagate and be dispersed poleward along mid-latitude wave trains. Retraction of the Pacific jet often occurs during this period of time, which can favor at least transient periods of North Pacific blocking (i.e. -EPO). This is exactly what we'd want to see to send the entire N American continent into the freezer later in February.
 
Webberweather53 said:
He's talking about Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) phase space (and again the GWO is basically just AAM + the tendency of AAM).
When you're in a state of high-very high AAM which is often the case when you have central pacific-western hemisphere tropical convection, frictional torques will act to dampen the AAM anomaly, negative mountain torques will thus commence soon thereafter, and the positive angular momentum anomaly will begin to propagate and be dispersed poleward along mid-latitude wave trains. Retraction of the Pacific jet often occurs during this period of time, which can favor at least transient periods of North Pacific blocking (i.e. -EPO). This is exactly what we'd want to see to send the entire N American continent into the freezer later in February.
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The GFS also has a significant -AAM bias that becomes particularly evident in the medium-extended range, this goes hand-in-hand w/ the -EPO bias we often see on a regular basis from this model because -EPOs are favored when we see a GWO orbit from high to low AAM
 
Nerman said:
Big jump N with the precipitation getting into GA.

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Would be a pretty cold (40s) rain for @pcbjr and El Ninolike during this strong +AAM, where the coldest anomalies in the entire country are down in FL then and the next day further south with only 50s in the early afternoon with the rain then there. That's quite chilly for S FL (as much as 15-6 BN).
 
GaWx said:
Would be a pretty cold (40s) rain for @pcbjr and El Ninolike during this strong +AAM, where the coldest anomalies in the entire country are down in FL then and the next day further south with only 50s in the early afternoon with the rain then there. That's quite chilly for S FL (as much as 15-6 BN).
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That area was non-existent of a storm 2 days ago. Now it's moved over 100 miles North in just 18 hours of GFS runs. The Euro made the jump too. I'm not sure if it can get far enough North to the freezing line but it's starting to get 'that look'. I'd love nothing more than to get a surprise inside 5 days during this crap cold dry/warm wet pattern we've been in.
 
The end of the GEFS continues to look pretty similar to most of the LR GEFS progs so far this season...some ridging along the west coast with a trough through the center/eastern part of the country and the PV sitting over Greenland. The GEPS, as has also been the case most of the season, looks a bit better. Don't have access to the 360 EPS, but I assume it probably doesn't look better.

850s through the period look average, to slightly below, depending on your model of choice. So, it's not a torch, as others have said, and it's possible to sneak an event in here somewhere. But I'm just putting lipstick on the pig by saying that. We need something to shake up the pattern before the clock runs out. In mid-December, we were looking at early Jan, which became mid-Jan, which turned into late-Jan/early Feb. Now, we're likely out to mid-Feb before a better pattern sets in, if it does.

Maybe the GWO/AAM will help force a change, at least for a while. I don't know. The ensembles at range have been fairly useless this year, IMO. I'm sure the EPS has done the best, but it's still whiffed a few times. Basically, nothing showing a cold and wintry pattern has played out. The CFS is hot garbage. The JAMSTEC is a mess. The JMA is a dumpster fire. The only thing that's been a reliable longer range predictor is persistence, once winter started.

I still think (hope) we get into a one or two week pattern where we get some blocking somewhere across the north that will provide a sustained cold air feed into the eastern US. But I'm not really sure how we get there in time, at this point.
 
Nerman said:
That area was non-existent of a storm 2 days ago. Now it's moved over 100 miles North in just 18 hours of GFS runs. The Euro made the jump too. I'm not sure if it can get far enough North to the freezing line but it's starting to get 'that look'. I'd love nothing more than to get a surprise inside 5 days during this crap cold dry/warm wet pattern we've been in.
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It is further north than 0Z on the EPS, too, and gives FL a nice, chilly soaking.

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Rain Cold said:
The end of the GEFS continues to look pretty similar to most of the LR GEFS progs so far this season...some ridging along the west coast with a trough through the center/eastern part of the country and the PV sitting over Greenland. The GEPS, as has also been the case most of the season, looks a bit better. Don't have access to the 360 EPS, but I assume it probably doesn't look better.

I still think (hope) we get into a one or two week pattern where we get some blocking somewhere across the north that will provide a sustained cold air feed into the eastern US. But I'm not really sure how we get there in time, at this point.
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1. Based on history/analogs, I expect the SE will experience a 2-3 week long BN dominated period but patience would be required imo as I think this wouldn't be til somewhere between 2/20 and 3/20.

2. Ask and you shall receive fwiw:

A. 12Z EPS hour 360 500 mb/sfc: cold W US/warmth hanging on E US
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B. 12Z EPS 2 meter temps hour 360:
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GaWx said:
1. Based on history/analogs, I expect the SE will experience a 2-3 week long BN dominated period but patience would be required imo as I think this wouldn't be til somewhere between 2/20 and 3/20.

2. Ask and you shall receive fwiw:

A. 12Z EPS hour 360 500 mb/sfc: cold W US/warmth hanging on E US
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B. 12Z EPS 2 meter temps hour 360:
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That 500mb pattern does not match the surface temps in the least...... something is off here.
 
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