Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Rain Cold]

I like the Op GFS doing Op GFS things, even if it's hour 384.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Here ya go

 

[accu35]

Here ya go

Seems like the focus here on those members are the deep south

 

[WeatherNC]

I like the Op GFS doing Op GFS things, even if it's hour 384.

Appreciate the 384hr Op, especially from you. That's a solid look with the primary NH PV lobe pinched in to Hudson Bay, ridging in the Gulf of Alaska would likely retrograde NW based on a Beaufort Sea connection. As I am sure you know, this is single computer simulation, well outside of it's useful range, and still lacks maturation of algorithms and the hardware that runs it compared to foreign based on verification . I'd be eyeing continuity of ops around 168 to their Ens mean / hand-off for D7-10, particularly in Canada, anything after D10 is a crap shoot even with the means, especially during pattern changes. I do agree the odds of a sig pattern change with Winter finally arriving in the East are increasing after 1/20, likely MA and north initially, with SE in play after 1/26.

 

[accu35]

This is how I feel. Gfs op runs has been back n forth and gefs has been solid on wintry weather for the south. Couple years ago in December, I remember the gfs going crazy with the winter storm I received with different run to run solutions for a while and the gefs solid with consistency. Not saying I'm right here, but ive learned over the years when the gefs and the eps is honking hard and loud and consistent with wintry weather, then most likely it happens.

 

[WeatherNC]

1/25 ish is the SE's real go outside of preferred CAD or Elevation.

 

[Rain Cold]

Appreciate the 384hr Op, especially from you. That's a solid look with the primary NH PV lobe pinched in to Hudson Bay, ridging in the Gulf of Alaska would likely retrograde NW based on a Beaufort Sea connection. As I am sure you know, this is single computer simulation, well outside of it's useful range, and still lacks maturation of algorithms and the hardware that runs it compared to foreign based on verification . I'd be eyeing continuity of ops around 168 to their Ens mean / hand-off for D7-10, particularly in Canada, anything after D10 is a crap shoot even with the means, especially during pattern changes. I do agree the odds of a sig pattern change with Winter finally arriving in the East are increasing after 1/20, likely MA and north initially, with SE in play after 1/26.

Completely agree on all points. I think there is a preponderance of evidence to support the idea that the pattern is changing to a more wintry one. I will feel better when the change moves much closer in and when the Ops and ensembles are in sync.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Here it comes.. the first wave after the 50/50 is established that the ensembles have been harping on. The STJ is juiced up!

18z GFS

Great to see you here man. Always enjoy your analysis!!!

 

[WeatherNC]

Completely agree on all points. I think there is a preponderance of evidence to support the idea that the pattern is changing to a more wintry one. I will feel better when the change moves much closer in and when the Ops and ensembles are in sync.

It's coming Man, I'm confident enough to say Winter will arrive, albeit late, with a vengeance and a weenie ban hammer last week of Jan until at-least mid Feb. Regarding KU potential, less confident, 1/25 ish has some early ingredients, from what I am seeing MJO may be off the charts in to phase 7. If that happens with the main PV lobe in to Hudson Bay, coupled with our Min, it's game on for a mid or major KU.

 

[Chazwin]

Growing up in Georgia, we definitely had a lot more ice storms in past decades then we do now. Of course that could change again. This decade could be a lot more different then 2010-2019

The same can be said for the Charlotte area. It use to seem that we would see a major freezing rain event every 1-2 years, but the last freezing rain only event that I can remember with widespread 1/4 inch or greater in the metro area was 2005. There have been a few forecasted since then, but have usually ended up being predominantly sleet.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here it comes.. the first wave after the 50/50 is established that the ensembles have been harping on. The STJ is juiced up!

18z GFS

Wow, wow is here now. Welcome and glad to see you make it over from the ghost town.

 

[wow]

Thanks. I thinks it's been about 15 years since I was just a member on a weather board.

I'm ready to kick this warm weather out. I'm so close to clicking on the AC and that is really depressing me to just have to think that in January.

 

[Brick Tamland]

And it looks like things are starting to look up for a pattern change and more positive for winter weather. It doesn't surprise me at all since we are having a severe threat today, which is extreme for this time of year, and sometimes we need an extreme event to change things up and get the pattern going in a different direction.

 

[Stormlover]

Been a long time since the outlook from the CPC showed this

 

[NCSNOW]

It is highly unlikely (but not impossible) to have two storms back to back, only drawback is that the sky has to have time to heal. I seem to remember 2 storms back to back in 1979 or 1980 but my memory ain't what she used to be.

? We had 4 in 12 days in 2000

 

[RollTide18]

I can deal with a torch these next few days knowing that winter is coming back.

 

[NCSNOW]

I can deal with a torch these next few days knowing that winter is coming back.

It does make it atleast bearable enough to stay away from the cliff as we torch. Bullfrogs been singing all afternoon.

 

[MichaelJ]

He can speak for himself but I thought he was being facetious

Exactly Stormdoc, I was making fun of one of the most ridiculous comments I ever saw on a weather board!

 

[MichaelJ]

The GEFS & EPS have generally trended towards the seasonally adjusted MJO analog composite (via Paul Roundy) w/ increasing -NAO being shown just after Jan 20th.

View attachment 30371


View attachment 30372






This composite looks awesome well into early-mid February.

We can certainly hope this pattern change actually sticks this time. One thing to consider going forward is that +IOD forcing at this time of the year (unlike earlier in winter) is actually conducive for more frequent troughiness & cold in the E US during February & March due to seasonal changes in the E hem monsoon circulation & mid-latitude jet.
View attachment 30373

My goodness gracious what a beautiful map!

 

[WeatherNC]

Thanks. I thinks it's been about 15 years since I was just a member on a weather board.

I’m about half, but’s it’s refreshing, stress with verification in ones backyard coupled with moderating a diverse competing audience and at your level dev issues takes away from the enjoyment, at least from my view I don’t want to go back. I like to cook and eat but I don’t want to run a restaurant.