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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

DixieBlizzard said:
Well, prepare yourself to stay tired. We all spend most of our winters on here hoping and wishing and most of the time it never turns out unless you favor the non-winter type scenarios. But again, we do live in the friggin south.
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But these are not the winters many of us grew up with. We used to get a couple of 2-4 inch events most winters, and a crappy winter was one 1-2 inch event.
 
wow said:
Here it comes.. the first wave after the 50/50 is established that the ensembles have been harping on. The STJ is juiced up!

18z GFS

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Welcome aboard sir!
 
Looks like it may be too warm in the SE when the system approaches on this run of the GFS. That hasn't been the case on the ensembles so far. There's also another system behind it...
 
Obvious large scale changes in the new operational model of the GFS .. steps in the right direction as far as I’m concerned
 
The skill level of the GFS must be pretty low after 5 days. I know the pattern change is causing the chaos but it can’t put together 2 runs that are consistent. I’m calling for a new AI model!
 
cd2play said:
But these are not the winters many of us grew up with. We used to get a couple of 2-4 inch events most winters, and a crappy winter was one 1-2 inch event.
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I'm 52 and don't remember it that way but was raised in the Birmingham metro. Now the early 80's i seem to recall were pretty epic. The 70's? Hit or miss. Nashville did seem to get more snow back in the day tho.
 
Storm5 said:
Hot mess express . Of course it’s way out so it’s irrelevant. Just shows how touchy the runs are going to be over the next 7-10
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Though the juiced up STJ isn’t an unreasonable solution. Three dissimilar runs except for the fact that they aren’t that cold.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
FWIW: The 18z GEFS ensembles are showing more suppression than 12z which is good at this stage. Also, places along I-20 south Snow Mean stayed the same or increased.
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I don't think it's suppression, It's too much interaction with the northern stream. We need that energy to stay in the SW,
12z
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-vort500_z500-9586400 (1).png
18z
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-vort500_z500-9586400.png
 
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