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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

MichaelJ said:
It is highly unlikely (but not impossible) to have two storms back to back, only drawback is that the sky has to have time to heal. I seem to remember 2 storms back to back in 1979 or 1980 but my memory ain't what she used to be.
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I think we had 2 storms within 10 days in 14 here in Georgia.


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MichaelJ said:
It is highly unlikely (but not impossible) to have two storms back to back, only drawback is that the sky has to have time to heal. I seem to remember 2 storms back to back in 1979 or 1980 but my memory ain't what she used to be.
Click to expand...

I wanna say it was in 1980. I believe the storms were about two or two and a half weeks apart.
 
WxWatch said:
Okay, fair enough! That comment I made saying, as I see as of now, just some cold shots with minor chances outside of the mountains is based off of thinking realistically. This is the southeastern US and most of the time, no major winter storms verify that shows up in the mid to long range. The pattern is crap and it's January, the time window is already cut short for a winter storm this month.

So what that I made snow/winter storm maps that turned out wrong. At least I tried and put some serious effort into them. If I don't know what I'm talking about or if I get something wrong about the models, just say so. Just don't sit there and say, "you don't know what you're talking about" or saying I basically suck. I could have huge potential in the meteorology field by providing custom maps and predictions, but I can't never improve my predictions if nobody never helps me out if I'm wrong about something. I get bashed every winter year and I'm so over it. If nobody helps me with my predictions and sits there saying, "you don't know what you're talking about" everytime, I'll just stop posting then, good grief.



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Ok let's unpack a few things here. #1 we all bust at some point when you make a forecast that's the reality of it, I busted hard thinking the pattern would change in early january, oops it didn't life goes on. #2 saying it's only going to snow in the mountains is a bold statement given the mjo and ensemble prediction. #3 winter isn't cut short we still have over 50% of our snow climo left and if you look at the period with the highest frequency of events we are just now approaching peak. #4 no one is saying stop posting but you did completely go from extreme A to extreme B and it really seemed more like bittercasting. #5 please remember we are all here for constructive discussion if we as staff feel like people are going outside of that we will take care of it. #6 building off of that if you want help with things just ask, no one knows it all but if you are unsure of something pose the question.

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MichaelJ said:
It is highly unlikely (but not impossible) to have two storms back to back, only drawback is that the sky has to have time to heal. I seem to remember 2 storms back to back in 1979 or 1980 but my memory ain't what she used to be.
Click to expand...
Sky healing is not a actual thing and I'm not sure who started this term although I remember Wilkesdud saying if every other post back on AmWx. The truth is, back to back storms have happened when good patterns that lock in, you can go to webberweather.com and look at the years and view the dates that are back-to-back with snow storms. The only way it doesn't happen is if said pattern is transient (aka transient blocking, transient +PNA, etc)...it might be a bias to say we need "healing" instead of just saying it doesn't snow often in the south and that's why it's not snowing again in a relatively short period of time following a big snow.
 
Jon said:
Sky healing is not a actual thing and I'm not sure who started this term although I remember Wilkesdud saying if every other post back on AmWx. The truth is, back to back storms have happened when good patterns that lock in, you can go to webberweather.com and look at the years and view the dates that are back-to-back with snow storms. The only way it doesn't happen is if said pattern is transient (aka transient blocking, transient +PNA, etc)...it might be a bias to say we need "healing" instead of just saying it doesn't snow often in the south and that's why it's not snowing again in a relatively short period of time following a big snow.
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Exactly it really just takes such a perfect pattern in the SE to get snow that back to back events is low on the chance of happening scale

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Jon said:
Sky healing is not a actual thing and I'm not sure who started this term although I remember Wilkesdud saying if every other post back on AmWx. The truth is, back to back storms have happened when good patterns that lock in, you can go to webberweather.com and look at the years and view the dates that are back-to-back with snow storms. The only way it doesn't happen is if said pattern is transient (aka transient blocking, transient +PNA, etc)...it might be a bias to say we need "healing" instead of just saying it doesn't snow often in the south and that's why it's not snowing again in a relatively short period of time following a big snow.
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He can speak for himself but I thought he was being facetious
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I see nothing wrong with the eps there at all
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I'd rather see the lowest NH heights on our side of the pole. 500mb heights in the eastern 3rd of Canada are not impressive for this time of year, not by a long shot. It's a better look than the previous 6 weeks of dumpster juice, but still not solid imo.
 
WeatherNC said:
I'd rather see the lowest NH heights on our side of the pole. 500mb heights in the eastern 3rd of Canada are not impressive for this time of year, not by a long shot. It's a better look than the previous 6 weeks of dumpster juice, but still not solid imo.
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Prefer seeing the heights in Alaska too. That sets up true cross polar flow from Siberia. Get that ridging too far east over the Rockies and you'll see storms OTS that clip the Northeast.
 
MichaelJ said:
It is highly unlikely (but not impossible) to have two storms back to back, only drawback is that the sky has to have time to heal. I seem to remember 2 storms back to back in 1979 or 1980 but my memory ain't what she used to be.
Click to expand...
No such thing as healing. But..usually the s/e can use up or deplete dry cold air at the surface with one storm and rain on the second. And tracks of low pressure are very unique like hurricanes which alter lots of things with qpf and temps.
 
The GEFS & EPS have generally trended towards the seasonally adjusted MJO analog composite (via Paul Roundy) w/ increasing -NAO being shown just after Jan 20th.

figregmjo20012.png


gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_21.png






This composite looks awesome well into early-mid February.

We can certainly hope this pattern change actually sticks this time. One thing to consider going forward is that +IOD forcing at this time of the year (unlike earlier in winter) is actually conducive for more frequent troughiness & cold in the E US during February & March due to seasonal changes in the E hem monsoon circulation & mid-latitude jet.
figregmjo20028.png
 
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