Banner Elk. Delayed rescues. 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro has had a pretty significant -PNA bias of late, hopefully this continues going forward.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Local NWS WFOs are playing catch up in the mountains.
Nomanslandva
Member
Ok, so what weird conditions cause those strange 2 dimensional flakes? That is super cool!
Fountainguy97
Member
Reports of flurries along the OBX this morning as well. NWS Morehead confirming reports.
If they are getting snow flakes from this, it makes me wonder what could happen tomorrow morning. RH levels keep rising on models down this way as well.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think we will have a weather statement posted tonight if things keep looks good. Nothing crazy just a heads up kinda statement.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Showmeyourtds
Member
Might be all we could hope for at this point.
Wind has been brutal for the last 24 hours. And to Chris’s point, the RH values coming off the SR models do have me a little intrigued. Could be fun
Fountainguy97
Member
I know this isn't the hot topic right now but GFS trending south toward the EURO with our cutoff this weekend. May be very interesting for Western NC.
Fountainguy97
Member
Experimental HRRR looking good for some flurries today into tomorrow. Notice the OBX as well. Still some snow showers at this frame as well.
I think we could start a thread for this flurry event to keep stuff organized. I'll let you guys decide that.
RH looks fantastic on HRRRX
I think we could start a thread for this flurry event to keep stuff organized. I'll let you guys decide that.
RH looks fantastic on HRRRX
Stormsfury
Member
This setup reminds me vaguely of Feb 1996 when down here had an ULL generate heavy snow showers at times with temps in the upper 30s/low 40s ... In the afternoon, had 1" accumulate in just 20 minutes with high winds on elevated surfaces and grassy areas. After that passed, sun out. Back to 41 and snow melted quickly. Huge Low topped CB moving away. Later thundersnow during the evening.
Also look at the HRRR for the outbanks tomorrow .. looks like bands of snow showers for them
We have an obs thread for flurries folks. Jesus Christ.
Fountainguy97
Member
You obviously don't understand what it is like going snowless for several winters in a row.
i remember that im pretty sure we in Columbia got some as well
Umm 12z GFS trending much better. Northern Virginia went from nothing to a big dog for this Friday. Earlier arrival may include the NC foothills and Piedmont. NC Mtns already looking much better too. This is prob our biggest threat so far this year because of the cold being here just prior and verifying.
For sure not a snow setup but I could see it trending to sleet or ZR for NC/VA at hr 96+.
That is a lot of snowpack in the northeast for future cad events to work with in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a weenie run in the not so distant future if New England verifies predictions. For late January.
Do you have a link for this? Thanks!!
Fountainguy97
Member
Here you go. It is plagued with delays as most experimental things are.
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this could catch a lot of people off guard in the Atlanta metro area, certainly some potential for light accumulation under heavier bands given the cold surface temps and preceding cool air mass. Cyclonic vorticity advection underneath this strong upper low will largely be forcing most of the precipitation here w/ orographic assist in the north Georgia mountains.
As we've seen in the past, it takes next to nothing to shut down Atlanta.
Yep, same situation a few years ago with that Novemeber 1st ULL that swung htrough the Midlands. I've felt okay about coastal areas seeing something, originally thinking the precipitation would be close enough.. but now the ULL idea is more prominent versus that imo.. and they are unpredictable. They tend to quickly strengthen and throw models off.. and we are seeing hints at the "idea" of moisture being "squeezed" and in the DGZ region with it, now.
Lets put it this way: On October 31st, I went to sleep saying "it isnt going to snow with that ULL" and woke up to a very heavy snow.
take a look at this. this doesn't mean it would precipitate.. but as the ULL is really cinching down, the burst of clouds start to pop and come inland over the coast with temperatures in the lower 30s.
Just saying........ the simulated "radars" may not look too promising on the 3KM NAM, but this isn't far off:
EDIT: Dew points are quite low, so may end up with Virga.
Just saying........ the simulated "radars" may not look too promising on the 3KM NAM, but this isn't far off:
EDIT: Dew points are quite low, so may end up with Virga.
yea that one was one of those great surprises we rarely get
NCSNOW
Member
The Mtns are gonna score huge because of wrap around, regardless of how front end plays out.
Still spitting snow up on Beech Mtn currently: https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/beech-parkway/
I would say along the coast of NC/SC may get some surprises. Dew points higher along coast.
It has trended to the point where max temp is 36 during the front end it may end up being a 100% winter event imo instead of the usual wrap around. Given it won’t take long to cool 4 degrees the wrap around should cover a much larger region than normal.
NCSNOW
Member
Buckethead posted this image. Oh if only this booger was coming down through Kansas instead of Missouri like NCWeather said, lot of folks, espacilly to my east would be yelling Woof!
MichaelJ
Member
Sounds this morning like JB has thrown in the towel for areas south of New England for the bulk of the remaining winter, although it does look to be way below normal in April as the -NAO looks to get established smh. Looks like the EURO is taking the MJO quickly into phase 6 again
Sitting at a balmy 35
I just booked a cabin about 2900 feet up in the smokies outside of Gatlinburg for the weekend. We will drive up early Saturday and come back Monday, so I will be pulling hard for a nice NW flow event.
Ron Burgundy
Member
A negative JBO (Joe Bastardi Oscillation) is the best signal yet that we’re about to get cold and wintery.
Are you a WeatherBell subscriber? What did he say? His Twitter has nothing so far today. His Saturday Summary said “better late than never”. Regarding his updated winter forecast (which was colder than the slightly warmer than normal to near normal SE he originally had), many folks already knew that was going to be still another fail once we had the very warm Dec through Jan 20th.
It looks like January of 2020’s AO will likely come in 3rd highest on record (back to 1950) (see below) with I think +2.5+. The only two higher ones were in 1989 and 1993. Late 2/1989 and mid 3/1993 had snowstorms for some fwiw. Both of those even gave way down at SAV rare snows.
I don’t know about snowstorms as those are very hard to predict, but analogs I’ve seen suggest a good shot at a sustained cold period somewhere within 2/20-3/20. The MJO will hopefully be in a better position then.
I don’t know about snowstorms as those are very hard to predict, but analogs I’ve seen suggest a good shot at a sustained cold period somewhere within 2/20-3/20. The MJO will hopefully be in a better position then.
Hey everyone, I am sure you're seeing random outages and error pages occasionally. This is not your end, and the maintenance should be complete now.
Also, the blog and wiki pages are back up. It may take up to 48 hours to propagate for everyone.
Also, the blog and wiki pages are back up. It may take up to 48 hours to propagate for everyone.
The Coast mountains of British Columbia look to jackpot in the coming weeks. This was the 12z Euro.. it literally snows from the beginning until the end of the run..smh
Last edited:
I would start watching the pacific during the last few days of the month into the first week of Feb. We may actually get this PNA deal to work out for a short time frame and we could probably make something out of that look. My concerns here though are the models are misplacing the ridge and it will eventually trend west in time and we end up with west coast trough/Se ridge.