Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[GaWx]

This loop is from the last 5 ICON runs: focus on the yellow area of precip SE of the Carolinas and you’ll see it has been tending to inch westward closer to SC (~100 miles or 25 miles per run). Now look at the change from run to run in the surface isobar pattern just below that yellow area. If you look closely, you can see pressures are lowering there and are getting pinched off more and more. And the general tendency has been lower pressures further west. As that has happened, the yellow area to the north has been inching westward.

The 12Z GFS and CMC were very slightly better than their prior runs.

I remain at a 5% chance for significant snow to reach somewhere on the coast. I was at 10% yesterday. So, I’m lower now but won’t drop it any lower due to the slightly better tendencies at 12Z.

Let’s see what the King has in store later. He has a lot of weight.

 

[accu35]

Those of us to the west still need to watch this onset.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That D11 look could work out for the NC high country

 

[GaWx]

I know it isn’t a good model. So, this is fwiw. But check out this change in the JMA precip vs the run from 24 hours ago: note the huge increase 100 miles offshore the Carolinas! This is consistent with that loop I just posted of the changes in the ICON over the same 24 hour period. The pink is 2-2.5” of rainfall. Cut that in half (since it tends to be about twice too heavy) and it still is over 1”.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

That D11 look could work out for the NC high country

Looks like it may be more of a CAD event so just East of the mountains would be colder than the mountains actually.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I know it isn’t a good model. So, this is fwiw. But check out this change in the JMA precip vs the run from 24 hours ago: note the huge increase 100 miles offshore the Carolinas! This is consistent with that loop I just posted of the changes in the ICON over the same 24 hour period. The pink is 2-2.5” of rainfall. Cut that in half (since it tends to be about twice too heavy) and it still is over 1”.

View attachment 31465

If it were colder and we had an armada...


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[ATLwxfan]

GEFS looks just darn fine to me. I’ll take that plus and active STJ and roll the dice.


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[accu35]

GEFS looks just darn fine to me. I’ll take that plus and active STJ and roll the dice.


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Gefs showing some back side wrap around snow for the southeast next week for MS/AL and TN

 

[GaWx]

If it were colder and we had an armada...


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It would likely be just cold enough for wintry through to about this time (12Z Wednesday) should it make it to shore.

The 12Z Euro is similar/a hair better than 6Z. But it is still no dice/offshore.

Also, similar to the last few runs, the Euro has an area of light snow flurries/showers (looks convective) moving ESE with the upper low Monday night into early Tue afternoon from TN through N MS/N AL and then into GA/SC (even going all the way to the coast very briefly). The GFS and CMC don’t have this. Moisture is quite limited with this.

 

[Stormdoc]

Well was not expecting anything interesting today but Euro has a scenario that is almost workable...

 

[Webberweather53]

This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect

 

[ATLwxfan]

This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect

I’m thinking we can still salvage this winter in Fab Feb.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

This pattern is hardly a blowtorch in the southern us the next 10 days or so, when your ridge axis is over the Hudson Bay coupled with a strong subtropical jet, seasonable and wet is the way to go. The 40 corridor and points north are still capable of sneaking a storm in if we make a few minor tweaks to the pattern and timing of the incident waves is perfect

Even looks like the afternoon euro 12z run is trying to pop more riding up out west and definitely a lot more than it had yesterday’s run at 12z ... would help us out a bit later in the medium range

 

[Webberweather53]

This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

 

[Ollie Williams]

This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

View attachment 31467

Agreed. The SE is much cooler this run *Note* This is run-to-run change

The Mean is also much higher this run for CAD favored areas

 

[Stormdoc]

This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

View attachment 31467

At least it is hard to see the SE ridge hurting us in that pattern LOL. No serious arctic air either, but like you say a few tweaks with what should be an active southern stream and a high pressure over New England and we could get lucky. I believe we have had winter weather in almost every teleconnection pattern in the past during the best climatological time period , often it comes down to sheer luck.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Agreed. The SE is much cooler this run *Note* This is run-to-run change
View attachment 31468
The Mean is also much higher this run for CAD favored areasView attachment 31469

Believe it or not. the Euro control gives us a big-dog in NC

 

[Webberweather53]

At least it is hard to see the SE ridge hurting us in that pattern LOL. No serious arctic air either, but like you say a few tweaks with what should be an active southern stream and a high pressure over New England and we could get lucky. I believe we have had winter weather in almost every teleconnection pattern in the past during the best climatological time period , often it comes down to sheer luck.

Yes, we've had a winter storm in basically every teleconnection configuration in the past, I can assure you of that even going back to 1948 and I'm sure this is even more evident when you look further back into the record. We've even had a major winter storm w/ no favorable teleconnections (+EPO/+WPO/+NAO/-PNA) granted it was also in late March thus the canonical mid-winter relationships start to break down because the wavelengths are short.

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm crossing my fingers for one sneaky shortwave to dig into the Lakes & NE US at just the right time because we almost have a repeat of the March 1927 pattern showing up on the long range EPS. If we make a few minor tweaks to this pattern & get super lucky somehow in the process, all bets could be off

 

[GaWx]

This isn't a torch pattern.

That is all.

View attachment 31467

There's no question that if this would verify as shown here (this EPS run averages only 3 AN at ATL/RDU per my source for 1/27-31/20), it would be like night and day compared to the blowtorch +10 of the last 30 days. With only about a degree rise in normals during 1/27-31 vs that for the last 30 days averaged out, you'd be looking at 1/27-31/20 being about 6 colder than 12/20/19-1/18/20 at ATL/RDU, which I'd welcome with open arms.

The only problem folks need to keep in mind is the obvious that these are modeled temps out 8-12 days (or a movie as @pcbjr called it) and they may not reflect reality. Reality could end up about the same, warmer, or colder. Unfortunately verifications even vs the warmer EPS (vs GEFS) has been coming in pretty significantly warmer on average over the last 30 days per the numbers I've seen and also per my memory of how much warmer it got as the time got closer vs even a good number of EPS runs. The models have been a colossal disaster. So fingers crossed that this won't happen for 1/27-31!

Regardless, folks, the next 5 days will average solidly BN. No worries there. Enjoy these next few days. We deserve them! .

 

[WxWatch]

I'm crossing my fingers for one sneaky shortwave to dig into the Lakes & NE US at just the right time because we almost have a repeat of the March 1927 pattern showing up on the long range EPS. If we make a few minor tweaks to this pattern & get super lucky somehow in the process, all bets could be off

View attachment 31478

Was there any significant winter storms in 1927 in the Southeast during that time?

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[Chandler]

Well, if anybody wants some hope, looks like eps has increased winter wx chances day 11-14, with the control showing a pretty nice storm as well, but then again the eps has been doing this pretty much all winter, so definitely needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Was there any significant winter storms in 1927 in the Southeast during that time?

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Only the biggest storm on record!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Amped STJ with a juiced up ass wave at the right place and cold air at all levels at the right time can do things

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well, if anybody wants some hope, looks like eps has increased winter wx chances day 11-14, with the control showing a pretty nice storm as well, but then again the eps has been doing this pretty much all winter, so definitely needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Interesting enough I’m fairly certain this may be the same system they were picking up on in the long range but then lost it once it started warming things up.. maybe this is the catching it back up part

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Only the biggest storm on record!
View attachment 31481

“WiTh GrOuNd TeMpS aNd SuN aNgLe IsSuEs we would have to CuT tHoSe iN hAlf” Dont wanna hear none of this in early March

 

[ForsythSnow]

Only the biggest storm on record!
View attachment 31481

For NC. I can't find anything for GA so I'm not interested unless I can find something from that year that gave other areas outside NC snow.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This winter going to go down worse than 2011-2012 or nah? Might not get a single threat to track all year?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This winter going to go down worse than 2011-2012 or nah? Might not get a single threat to track all year?

This winter is similar to last year. All we do is track escarpment onset ice events and even those turn out to be 40 degree light drizzle to heavy rain

 

[NCSNOW]

These last 42 days of met winter for GSO are right on que for what I thought was gonna happen. Dont need vodka cold outbreak to score one. Just timing. To many opportunities in southern stream coming along not score atleast once. Also normal to -1 BN looks like a solid bet.

 

[pcbjr]

Given the somewhat understandable doom and gloom, maybe these will shed a slight ray of positive karma on someone, somewhere ...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/t7loop.html

Open, and animate ...

BTW - These were once in our long AWOL Wiki ...

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This winter is similar to last year. All we do is track escarpment onset ice events and even those turn out to be 40 degree light drizzle to heavy rain

Last year was better. It had a couple of almost events. This year we haven’t even had a legit dud to track. People getting excited over 300+ hour stuff lol. I haven’t even really paid much attention, because there hasn’t been anything to pay attention to.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Last year was better. It had a couple of almost events. This year we haven’t even had a legit dud to track. People getting excited over 300+ hour stuff lol. I haven’t even really paid much attention, because there hasn’t been anything to pay attention to.

I would say this winter has plenty of time to redeem itself with a backloaded winter still possible with all of February and beginning of March still to go... but I would say if we’re dealing with the same type of issues by mid to late February ... this winter would be one of the worst most likely

 

[ATLwxfan]

People killing winter on January 19th where modeling has been so terrible is pure bittercasting and frankly more banter worthy than anything else. Be sad in the banter or whamby thread. I am glad we don’t have a blowtorch forthcoming and we don’t need a deep freezer to get wintery. We need some marginal could and an active SJT and we may certainly have that.


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[GaWx]

People killing winter on January 19th where modeling has been so terrible is pure bittercasting and frankly more banter worthy than anything else. Be sad in the banter or whamby thread. I am glad we don’t have a blowtorch forthcoming and we don’t need a deep freezer to get wintery. We need some marginal could and an active SJT and we may certainly have that.


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Actually, you may get flakes as soon as tomorrow night. For at least the 4th run in a row even though it is the only major model showing this, the 18Z Euro has light snow in the ATL area and much of N GA tomorrow night in advance of the upper low moving SE.

Meanwhile, the precip is about the same as recent runs just with it almost all just offshore. Still watching that for any unexpected last minute trends toward the coast.

 

[Ilovesnow28]

Actually, you may get flakes as soon as tomorrow night. For at least the 4th run in a row even though it is the only major model showing this, the 18Z Euro has light snow in the ATL area and much of N GA tomorrow night in advance of the upper low moving SE.

Meanwhile, the precip is about the same as recent runs just with it almost all just offshore. Still watching that for any unexpected last minute trends toward the coast.

Does parts of Alabama have a chance of maybe seeing flakes too?

 

[GaWx]

Does parts of Alabama have a chance of maybe seeing flakes too?

Per Euro, yes especially N half of AL has a chance during a portion of tomorrow and tom night (may be two waves of it)! Euro has patches of light snow, flurries, etc. Enjoy it!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS trying to pop the beginnings of a +PNA..starts around 264 on the 18z..good trends..should help aid to shove that big ridge out of Canada and at least give us a shot by the end of the first week in February..I mean I’m trying to find something positive here..hope

 

[GaWx]

The 18Z EPS is continuing a general trend of inching toward the coast and is actually kissing parts of the NC coast with light precip. In the Wilmington coastal area, it has it starting around Tue at sunset and continuing though much of Tue night. Most or all of this would be snow from all indications. Keep watching it, especially coastal folks, as this is still not a done deal/48 hours away and moderate precip is only ~30 miles offshore/heavy only 75 miles offshore!

 

[SD]

GEFS trying to pop the beginnings of a +PNA..starts around 264 on the 18z..good trends..should help aid to shove that big ridge out of Canada and at least give us a shot by the end of the first week in February..I mean I’m trying to find something positive here..hopeView attachment 31489

Yeah models have been a little enthusiastic about some pna ridging and some shuffling going on in the Pacific over the last 24 hours