ATLwxfan
Member
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
It's up to you. The GEFS has a better Pacific look, while the EPS has a better -NAM look (-AO and -NAO). The EPS is better for cold, while the GEFS is better for snow. We want the EPS to trend towards the GEFS on the Pacific, but the GEFS to trend towards the Artic look on the EPS.
Honestly though we would rather have the blocking more than anything
The GEFS
Jon
Member
It’s there in the composite here. It kinda has to be with the -EPO that the GEFS is predicting.
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This would be ok
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Jon
Member
I’d say the GEFS with its strong -EPO is favorable if you want deep cold. EPS is more favorable for snow although less cold (but we are in late January, so “less cold” is still below climo and fine for snow)...If the GEFS is correct it’s going to get VERY cold in the east. Lucky for us, both are favorable winter patterns.
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packfan98
Moderator
This might be the biggest weenie run yet for the GEFS. There are some wonderful coastal bombs!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I thought it was one epic member but there are 5 to 7 big dogs. Member 2 is a legit boardwide storm.mean so far
whatalife
Moderator
Man that looks good. Hopefully the GEFS is onto something and I’ve seen this happen before only to be let down.
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This is the best run I've seen since the 2018 December storm
packfan98
Moderator
Wait and post again at the end. Half of the members have a major SE winter storm at hour 384. Geez! I can't wait to see you post the Weathermodels map that counts all frozen as snow. You rarely see this much agreement in the long range.
There are some amazing members on the latest GEFS run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:
Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm
January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015
Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:
It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.
Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
I do like how the ensembles are progressing, but it is a little troubling that neither the GFS or the Euro Ops are all that cold. I realize the pattern really isn't getting going till around D10 or after, but you'd think we'll have to start seeing some consistency in the operationals sooner or later.
It’s nice to see gfs ensemble agreement in mid range. I know the gfs op has been all over the place.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Is it safe to be excited again @packfan98
Man y'all trying to pull me out of the cliff with all these beautiful maps weenie mode in me is about to get turned back on..