RollTide18
Member
Trying to remember the last time there have been this much support for the Deep South, at least this far out.
This post clearly shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about (as usual). Declaring winter is over as you've prematurely done more than once here the last few weeks means there's absolutely no chance of it coming back and we immediately move onto spring, there's a big discrepancy between saying that and winter is taking a break. Seems pretty obvious here you don't understand the difference between the two.
"As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February"
This is based on what exactly? You're speaking in absolutes and already talking about specifics wrt who will get snow & who won't, roughly how intense those cold shots & storms will be for a mediocre pattern that probably won't verify a few weeks to a month from now. This is a good way to have egg on your face, as you've probably experienced several times this winter when you were making winter storm threat maps for a storm that was over a week away & don't be shocked if everyone laughs at you in a couple weeks for declaring winter was over last week.
You've overcorrected for your far too overzealous mannerism, you need to find the happy medium/middle ground and learn to not speak in absolutes or discuss ANY specifics in a pattern more than a week or two in advance as you've done here, let alone make winter storm maps for events that over 6-7 days away. That is just as bad as someone declaring winter is over or that we're going to have a "pants exploding" winter storm based on a singular 300+ hour operational model run.
I do like how the ensembles are progressing, but it is a little troubling that neither the GFS or the Euro Ops are all that cold. I realize the pattern really isn't getting going till around D10 or after, but you'd think we'll have to start seeing some consistency in the operationals sooner or later.
Well anyone have the 12z Euro run? Just curious on what it had to say...
View attachment 30350
This looks interesting. I don’t know if anyone else has precip maps.
That is last nights runProbably not going to happen, but close.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That is last nights run
Do you have 216?Duh. Second time that’s happened today. Here are correct maps. We just need a stronger Shortwave in the SW.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Eastern NC/SC ended up having a good snowstorm on 1/3 or 1/4/2018... Charleston has 5 or 6 inchesFound it in an old text! Did NC or anyone get anything during this period? If so than this time could be different if the mean I posted included a storm that actually happened in the short term and this mean includes that. View attachment 30340
Found it in an old text! Did NC or anyone get anything during this period? If so than this time could be different if the mean I posted included a storm that actually happened in the short term and this mean includes that. View attachment 30340
That one done me in here in Columbia. Had a severe virga storm. We were the only major city in the SE without significant winter weather that Winter.
Okay, fair enough! That comment I made saying, as I see as of now, just some cold shots with minor chances outside of the mountains is based off of thinking realistically. This is the southeastern US and most of the time, no major winter storms verify that shows up in the mid to long range. The pattern is crap and it's January, the time window is already cut short for a winter storm this month.This post clearly shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about (as usual). Declaring winter is over as you've prematurely done more than once here the last few weeks means there's absolutely no chance of it coming back and we immediately move onto spring, there's a big discrepancy between saying that and winter is taking a break. Seems pretty obvious here you don't understand the difference between the two.
"As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February"
This is based on what exactly? You're speaking in absolutes and already talking about specifics wrt who will get snow & who won't, roughly how intense those cold shots & storms will be for a mediocre pattern that probably won't verify a few weeks to a month from now. This is a good way to have egg on your face, as you've probably experienced several times this winter when you were making winter storm threat maps for a storm that was over a week away & don't be shocked if everyone laughs at you in a couple weeks for declaring winter was over last week.
You've overcorrected for your far too overzealous mannerism, you need to find the happy medium/middle ground and learn to not speak in absolutes or discuss ANY specifics in a pattern more than a week or two in advance as you've done here, let alone make winter storm maps for events that over 6-7 days away. That is just as bad as someone declaring winter is over or that we're going to have a "pants exploding" winter storm based on a singular 300+ hour operational model run.