RollTide18
Member
Grain of salt and the usual but temps are in the low 40s when this is rolling through, if it could trend colder, who knows?
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
There is WSW 500 mb flow and SW lower level flow ahead of an oncoming upper trough/cold front producing warmth in the E 1/3 of the US. Look at the surface isobars closely. Also, in NC, 850's are +4 to +6, which are ~3 C warmer than normal. Around RDU for example, the daily means late in this run are ~50 vs Feb 5th normals of 43.
If we can muddy the pattern up enough we might be able to get lucky. We have to have these occluding systems over the lakes/ne to supply these marginal air masses and to temporarily suppress the flow. If we catch a decently timed wave on the back end you might have something. I wouldn't bet the farm but its something to watch forGrain of salt and the usual but temps are in the low 40s when this is rolling through, if it could trend colder, who knows?
NCSNOW
Member
Update NCSNOW Greensboro last 42 days of winter forecast.
Off to a great start. As of midnight tonight GSO will be -3.5BN with 38 days to go. Really like our chances to get on the scoreboard as we head into the 2cnd week of February, Feb 6th time frame. Week 3 and 4 in Feb look very promising, but ill pass another week before cashing in on some encouraging model news. It looks like we will be shutout for the 2cnd January in a row. Odds are 95% + in that favor at the moment. Still think we are looking good to end the 42 day spell -1 BN and hit climo snowfall. Time will tell.
Todays all time record low occured on this date at GSO is -8. Also the biggest snow Ive personally witnessed in my county was Feb 28,2004 of 18 inches. All time record for the county is 26 inches from one storm. Bottom line it may not look like a royal flush on the models at H5, TC etc, but it aint over yet folks.
Off to a great start. As of midnight tonight GSO will be -3.5BN with 38 days to go. Really like our chances to get on the scoreboard as we head into the 2cnd week of February, Feb 6th time frame. Week 3 and 4 in Feb look very promising, but ill pass another week before cashing in on some encouraging model news. It looks like we will be shutout for the 2cnd January in a row. Odds are 95% + in that favor at the moment. Still think we are looking good to end the 42 day spell -1 BN and hit climo snowfall. Time will tell.
Todays all time record low occured on this date at GSO is -8. Also the biggest snow Ive personally witnessed in my county was Feb 28,2004 of 18 inches. All time record for the county is 26 inches from one storm. Bottom line it may not look like a royal flush on the models at H5, TC etc, but it aint over yet folks.
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NCSNOW
Member
If you ever want to know your all time record snowfall for a county in NC. Fishel,wral have a NC map, you can point and click, pulls up alltime 3day,2 day and 24 hour record for each county. Pretty neat
link?
pcbjr
Member
KGNV - Hard Freeze Warning
Clear, with a low around 25. Wind chill values as low as 17. North wind 8 to 11 mph.
Lovin' every blessed spoonful moment of it ... finally ...
Clear, with a low around 25. Wind chill values as low as 17. North wind 8 to 11 mph.
Lovin' every blessed spoonful moment of it ... finally ...
If I lived between charleston and myrtle I'd be glued to the radar right now with those returns only 40-50 miles away
I'm still wondering if a few showers will sneak into the FL coast from Daytona to Canaveral corridor later tonight just before the upper air gets too warm for snow. If so, with 850s below 0C and thicknesses below 540, I wonder if there could at least be a little snow mixed with the light rain? I know the surface will be above 32 near the coast. @pcbjr, are you going to chase this?
pcbjr
Member
Would love to, but I'm hunkered in for the night - more litigation tomorrow and that cannot be done blurry eyed
Chance of a mixed shower or flurries for coastal SC. 
Not seeing any MPING snow reports out of any coastal areas
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If only we could get this low to shift northwards a few hundred miles.
then there go your perfect 850s..
Sctvman
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Landfall in 15 mins Folly Beach. Maybe Stormsfurry is chasing. Snowband rolling in
Likely all virga unfortunately
Stormsfury
Member
Not chasing. You can literally see the snow aloft from the clouds reflecting off the lights in the city.
Impressive backing of the cloud deck on water vapor.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well the GFS was closer with at least some moisture in S GA.
Stormsfury
Member
If only ... Just closer ...
LOL to chasing virga band snow on the South Carolina coast! Sorry, guy...
Well that was interesting. 0z GFS 12z Thursday much more precip Georgia/Tennessee. Barely misses western NC when temps are below freezing. That frontal thump of rain wasn’t as impressive in prior runs,
Brad P tweeted a cam from folly beach and definitely a few flurries
Does appear to be a few flakes flying, certainly rare for coastal SC.
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This is an equally brutal pattern we’re going to have to suffer through for at least the next 2 weeks. Stale cold. Highs in the lower 50’s and lows in the upper thirties/mid 40’s..unless we get something to close off and make its own cold air, I’m extremely doubtful it snows outside of the mountains..hopefully we can get the Pacific to play ball by February 10
This type of pattern would work better in March with ULLs
FV3 showing the big storm around the 1st. Actually has had some support from the EPS members.
Cmc and GFS tonight showing a similar type of set up with plenty of time to change positions ... but definitely seems like a storm threat (rain or snow) depending on how much cold air we can wrap in
GFS tried to do that thing towards the end..??
Avalanche
Member
Wish it wasnt heading up the apps. Could work here if there was significant CAA.Hour 240
This is like a really sexy almost perfect girl on your first date, but her face is wonky, just not right. Then she leaves you dry on prom night for the star quarterback.GFS tried to do that thing towards the end..??
accu35
Member
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App runners work for me. I'm west of the mountains
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That's not that bad of a pattern to be honest, it's definitely not a torch pattern. I'd say the temps would be average for the most part (maybe slightly above or below average) for some area's depending on where you are located (factoring in mesoscale features.) I still think early February, the pattern may develop into a much more favorable pattern for below normal temps and active with storms across the Eastern US (including a good portion of the Southeastern US) The colder pattern could be long established, meaning a long duration of below normal temps through early February and possibly into mid February.
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Can someone either agree or disagree that we should now be looking at the Canadian model and it’s ensembles with a more higher regard .. even vs Gfs now? In other words is the Canadian more trust worthy now in what it shows
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things could get real interesting early next week if this trend continues. Most models are slowly ticking northward w/ this system, we would need to see a pretty dramatic shift to give any of us a chance & of course also have enough cold air in place.
What the temps on EPS for above frame?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It would have to keep this trend up and get the tilt better. It's working on it, that's for sure.