High Wind Warnings out for eastern TN. This has been one of the more windier winters in recent memory.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Nomanslandva
Member
A little Monday ICON snow for NC high country
RollTide18
Member
I wouldn’t go that far, it wouldn’t take much for areas south of I-40 to get something. But we’ve all been following winter weather long enough to never write winter off, where it be a marginal setup, some sneaking up on us, an amped up low with wraparound or a bowling ball ULL, countless possibilities that can still happen that don’t necessarily involve the classic miller A big dog.
Stormlover
Member
That's a ridiculous thing to say on Jan/ 23
NoSnowATL
Member
Again just my opinion. Never said I was going to be right. I hope I’m not.
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12z RGEM supports some winter weather advisories along the escarpment. Sleet to ZR. 
Two back to back Potential sliders by hr 144 on the 12z gfs, the plot is thickening.
SimeonNC
Member
And everyone who doesn't live in the mountains of those areas too.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Warm sliders with a side of fries but sliders nonetheless.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. Nice NC CAD event.
Damn New England gets rocked. Blizzard hr 240.
ATLwxfan
Member
For CAD regions close to the mountains perhaps. Outside (and south) of that we aren’t close. Obviously it just takes one really cold model run to change the narrative.
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That won’t work
This is a rain or snow pattern imo..so a low tracking right over us just isn’t even the least bit interesting. Even a perfect low track is going to leave favored areas on the fringe in a marginal setup. What the GFS is puking out will not work. Still lots of details to be worked out but the theme so far this winter is a low that verifies much further north than modeled at d8-9. Just my thoughts
Well well well 
It should be at the very least interesting especially being this far out .. we know that the position will change just as the models have been pushing the lows south as we come further towards verification
Six Mile Wx
Member
GFS run to run variability is insane
Really hoping this at least works out for the mountains, at this point, it would be great to track anything here in the SE. For once, it would be awesome for something, anything, to trend in a good direction from the long range.
Models flirted with a triple phaser yesterday at 12z, but were still too warm
Not verbatim but might be workable. Need to see that high SE Canada get stronger or further south, and obviously that low to be further south and not phase or bomb out until later. Not too much to ask for, right?
Those two weak waves that slide through next week with insufficient cold air is going to be a hard pill to swallow. Sheared waves like that have been hard to come by the last several months and those are usually the types that bring areas south of 85 good snows. It’s tough. You hate to see those miss. You can’t help but think we’re striking out again and again
ouch 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Its gonna be at least another 4-5 days or so probably until we can figure out if we can get a ULL situation that brings some heavy wet snow, although even still it might only be a good thing in the mountains. Thinking probably ULL or just some weak waves.
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Right? Good lord
Six Mile Wx
Member
I’d like to see the 850 temp position across the south during our historical snow events of greater than 2”. I suspect it stretched from Texas through NC and was probably south of Dallas and Columbia SC. These narrow trough bottoms don’t seem to work for us. New thread : The Quest for late Winter Blocking
NCSNOW
Member
GFS 1st Slider
Canadian 1st Slider
Canadian 1st Slider
Can you link me to the site that provides these maps?
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Dang at least there is still some BIG dogs to enjoy on the GEFS ... at hour 384 ?
NCSNOW
Member
GFS Second Slider( Actually right down the middle. over the top of us, Apps runner)
Canadian storm 2 has colder thickness with a weaker HP, but not as amped as GFS. Players in same general location, agreement.
Canadian storm 2 has colder thickness with a weaker HP, but not as amped as GFS. Players in same general location, agreement.
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This is the one. I’m sure of it. Just hold on a little bit longer, guys and gals
The GFS is terrible if you want a southeast winter storm. We can continue to celebrate not having a torch. But it's going to rain and be fairly seasonal.
Flopping harder then James harden 
That actually legitimately could work. But we know the height field won't look anything like that in 16 days.
Looking at 500mb, with the flexing heights out front, I wouldn't count on it, until it can spin up and throw moisture onto NC. #story_of_the_sc_life
tennessee storm
Member
What’s. New . Lol
Would probably be a little slider, but that’s neither here nor there. Ain’t happening. You checked the monthlies lately?
Nope. Too late for monthlies to save us. About time to start checking the yearlies for next winter.
Snownut
Member
Yeah smart thing to say when some of the biggest winter storms has been in Feb and March.
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