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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

With a dominant pacific flow you can want the low to be where you want it. It’s not going to play along.


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Take it fwiw but the CMC has snow in less than a week for NC and parts of the upstate. We'll see if the upgrade has it looking better, but it's handling the energy differently from the Euro/GFS lately from what I see. Has the initial southern wave moving faster than them I'm pretty sure.

Edit: alright I may actually be wrong, it's been a long day for me. Looks like it just likes the earlier wave better. ICON might as well.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Take it fwiw but the CMC has snow in less than a week for NC and parts of the upstate. We'll see if the upgrade has it looking better, but it's handling the energy differently from the Euro/GFS lately from what I see. Has the initial southern wave moving faster than them I'm pretty sure.

Edit: alright I may actually be wrong, it's been a long day for me. Looks like it just likes the earlier wave better. ICON might as well.
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28464975-C937-40D7-A3D0-8466EED875C5.png
 
Ill sleep well with the 0z icon and cmc. Check euro in the morn. No need to sweat the model in last place now a week out. More trends and changes to come. Icon is very similar to its 12z placements
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Yeah that'd be a really nice hit if it were to come true, problem is while this wave does exist on everything else, I just backchecked and this wave is weaker or gets overtaken on other models.

Wintry would be supported here if the GFS didn't have a weaker and more stretched out wave that was suppressed.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Take it fwiw but the CMC has snow in less than a week for NC and parts of the upstate. We'll see if the upgrade has it looking better, but it's handling the energy differently from the Euro/GFS lately from what I see. Has the initial southern wave moving faster than them I'm pretty sure.

Edit: alright I may actually be wrong, it's been a long day for me. Looks like it just likes the earlier wave better. ICON might as well.
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This is an interesting deal .. if u look at the run previous is has a totally different look and this recent run looks telling for a winter storm for SC NC ... would be interesting to see euro and all the ensembles
 
ALSO fwiw the GEFS also are picking out this storm that the CMC is showing .. most of our winter storms pop up as we get close
 
gfs_asnow_seus_65.png
 
packfan98 said:
gfs_asnow_seus_65.png
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I can’t find evidence of the pattern on the means supporting this system. The GFS Op looks like it gets a decent -NAO and a somewhat decent ridge on the west coast, and the 50/50 is there 1 day before the system which is also a positive...but the means don’t reflect this. Even with all that said, the Feb 7 period seems to have more legs for the SE to me.


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Jon said:
I can’t find evidence of the pattern on the means supporting this system. The GFS Op looks like it gets a decent -NAO and a somewhat decent ridge on the west coast, and the 50/50 is there 1 day before the system which is also a positive...but the means don’t reflect this. Even with all that said, the Feb 7 period seems to have more legs for the SE to me.


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Euro op looks similar 78 hours later. Maybe we get a transient -NAO at some point. But we are talking about la la land, so who knows. I have found the LR ensembles to be utterly useless this year. Once we get any potential inside D8, I think everything will be more useful.

Right now, about all we really know for sure is that the flow is really fast and energetic for as far as we can reliably see. Until that changes, it's going to be very hard to get any meaningful intrusions of cold air into the deep south.

As long as this pattern is in place, we will need a lucky bombing storm that sets up a 50/50 and we need to pray that another system comes in on its heels. Maybe we get a pattern change later in the month. But that's just wishful thinking right now.
 
Rain Cold said:
Euro op looks similar 78 hours later. Maybe we get a transient -NAO at some point. But we are talking about la la land, so who knows. I have found the LR ensembles to be utterly useless this year. Once we get any potential inside D8, I think everything will be more useful.

Right now, about all we really know for sure is that the flow is really fast and energetic for as far as we can reliably see. Until that changes, it's going to be very hard to get any meaningful intrusions of cold air into the deep south.

As long as this pattern is in place, we will need a lucky bombing storm that sets up a 50/50 and we need to pray that another system comes in on its heels. Maybe we get a pattern change later in the month. But that's just wishful thinking right now.
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Agree 100%.

The chaotic nature of the flow will likely blow the boards up, but it’s just fools gold. We’ve seen better looks that gave us similar big storms but they were never supported on the ensembles.

Assuming the ensembles are right it may be mid Feb before we get something.

I really hope the -EPO shows up this year, I think that’s what gets us out and opens the door to cold intrusion. We may have to deal with suppressed systems but we could crank one out.

ff7dfcf7c55a4c808741f2078ddebff3.gif


5d699cc610f99645d22c6f9d276b0fba.jpg


SSWE or not, it seems like we are gunning for a shake up in Feb. I just want something to get rid of the +EPO and go from there.


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Jon said:
Agree 100%.

The chaotic nature of the flow will likely blow the boards up, but it’s just fools gold. We’ve seen better looks that gave us similar big storms but they were never supported on the ensembles.

Assuming the ensembles are right it may be mid Feb before we get something.

I really hope the -EPO shows up this year, I think that’s what gets us out and opens the door to cold intrusion. We may have to deal with suppressed systems but we could crank one out.

ff7dfcf7c55a4c808741f2078ddebff3.gif


5d699cc610f99645d22c6f9d276b0fba.jpg


SSWE or not, it seems like we are gunning for a shake up in Feb. I just want something to get rid of the +EPO and go from there.


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Yep, agree. And I think I said it backwards above lol. The Euro looks like the GFS 78 hours later...Euro240 ~= GFS318 with a little bit of -NAO and a 50/50ish type feature, with another system behind haha.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_54.png

I am actually pretty amazed that we have had absolutely no help wrt a -EPO this year. I thought it was almost a lock that we would see that feature for a while at least.
 
KyloG said:
I'm not a strat hugger by any means but a stout t-PV over the pole ain't good. Nice to see th Euro going for a split.

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The GFS actually splits the vortex in the extended FWIW. It hasn't been really keen on the idea (or a displacement) up until now.
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