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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Every year the GL low is blamed for killing snow events and just about every year that myth has to be killed and by the next winter it has risen from the grave again.
lol I would generally agree. But it clearly ran interference at least on that run. Just a model run though. I needed something to dissect
 
In reality you should be biting at ensembles and nibbling at operationals
I guess but this aint my first rodeo as vern gosdin might say........Yeah its nice to see some big dogs in the ensembles but theres hardly a trace on the others you want to see a bigger spread imo to support this senerio. It was just a few weeks ago we had a system show up and slowly faded away as we got closer. All the ensembles are telling me is theres an opportunity during that time frame. Get some consistent op support by this weekend and i think were golden time will tell.
 
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Is it just me or would this be very interesting if you could only manage to shift the ridge west some 200-300 miles? Based off past chatter, that's why I'm thinking this.
 
I wouldn't completely wipe away next week. Plenty of ensemble support for a couple storms next week. Still a lot to nail down. I wouldn't "throw out" any threat until this Thursday-Friday once things are more consistent. For now the storm signals are there and we have cold to work with. We haven't said that for a while.

We take this look at 200 hrs any day of the week.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

500hv.conus.png


UPDATE: Did I mention its COLD????

I rarely "sound the alarm".... but wow this look....


this.pngcold.png
 
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Is it just me or would this be very interesting if you could only manage to shift the ridge west some 200-300 miles? Based off past chatter, that's why I'm thinking this.
I agree. It looks to try and phase too late in the game due to position, but if that were much further west, we'd see a massive storm. Ensembles could be nice.
 
So close... Imagine that have phased down in the Gulf.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Anyone throwing out the potential of a winter storm happening next week may regret it. Euro is very close to making some in the SE very happy.


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I think us I-20 folks from Alabama west sees nothing while areas east and North of us do... I pray I regret it so that way it snows here
 
If that euro run didn't give you that feeling then you are dead to me

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Coastals just don’t do it for me..but plenty of time for an earlier phase so I’m not too upset about it
 
Anyone throwing out the potential of a winter storm happening next week may regret it. Euro is very close to making some in the SE very happy.


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It always happens when the major mets deny it lol. Seeing all the major models with something is a big flag for something. We just don't know where and for whom it will be yet, but something's coming.
 
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