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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

This may not mean nothing, but this time frame still has my attention a little. There are still a few members that do show some hope on this first little wave. I've learned that the icon may not be as crazy as people think and sometimes it matches up with gefs when it come to wintry weather and sometimes it's good with leading the way. I'm not giving up, lol.
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I still feel okay about coastal areas having a chance at something Wintry if the cold settles in well and a system stays suppressed. There's been quite a signal on ensembles that something might sneak up. Again, way too far out, and it's a nightmare to figure situations like those out even a couple days in advance. Track matters, but cold has to be firmly well in place first.
 
accu35 said:
This may not mean nothing, but this time frame still has my attention a little. There are still a few members that do show some hope on this first little wave. I've learned that the icon may not be as crazy as people think and sometimes it matches up with gefs when it come to wintry weather and sometimes it's good with leading the way. I'm not giving up, lol.
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There still appears to be a very faint signal for something from Montgomery to Macon to Myrtle, we'll see.
 
SD said:
If you look at the actual height maps and not the anomalies it's not a disaster. Split flow with some ridging in the west. All you need at this time of the year is a reasonably cold dry air mass and you might have something

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We actually have low pressure off the east coast for once and high pressure up into parts of the arctic. A complete flip from the first half of January.

The GEFS did have a -EPO so that helps a ton but it's been wrong about that a lot.

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SD said:
If you look at the actual height maps and not the anomalies it's not a disaster. Split flow with some ridging in the west. All you need at this time of the year is a reasonably cold dry air mass and you might have something

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I like looking at the height maps better, actually. We're just having a problem getting real cold to push into the SE. I was looking at last night's LR Euro NHEM map and the strongest high that I could find was, I think, NE of AK at 1032 or something. That's ridiculous.
 
SD said:
If you look at the actual height maps and not the anomalies it's not a disaster. Split flow with some ridging in the west. All you need at this time of the year is a reasonably cold dry air mass and you might have something

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Agreed 10000000000%
 
SD said:
If you look at the actual height maps and not the anomalies it's not a disaster. Split flow with some ridging in the west. All you need at this time of the year is a reasonably cold dry air mass and you might have something

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Well, I'd agree in general. But I think here in the SE, if we're looking for snowfall we need a perhaps a bit more. We need well below normal temperatures and pretty great ridging IMO. Ok, a bit below normal won't get us snow I don't think. That's the frustrating part to me is we need a really good pattern, and it's just absent the last few years.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, I'd agree in general. But I think here in the SE, if we're looking for snowfall we need a perhaps a bit more. We need well below normal temperatures and pretty great ridging IMO. Ok, a bit below normal won't get us snow I don't think. That's the frustrating part to me is we need a really good pattern, and it's just absent the last few years.
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Hey man I am just trying to find any positives I can here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like looking at the height maps better, actually. We're just having a problem getting real cold to push into the SE. I was looking at last night's LR Euro NHEM map and the strongest high that I could find was, I think, NE of AK at 1032 or something. That's ridiculous.
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No blocking near the pole and a strong PV will do that to you. That said give me a 1032 over the NE and something in the southern stream and I will take my chances
 
12z Hour 240 till 360 on the Canadian and GFS Ensembles turn in True winter. Both have negative 850's across the entire conus as time progresses. Encouraging to see. Not digging into what,why ,How it comes up with these solutions. Just gonna monitor trend. Use pivotal and you can roll em forward. Heres one screen shot.

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EURO agrees on cold prior to our storm threat. This can work for heart of CAD if storm trends are quicker and a tick cooler. 40s but can see isobars bending during the storm. I’ll chance it for now and leave it on the back burner. DD526D9D-1961-4D29-99F7-8D7C183D8FAD.jpeg
 
whatalife said:
Not at all and I would agree about the trough in the west. Only problem is we can’t really trust it.


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The tPV consolidates in the wrong spot so we have to wait for it to do something. A piece breaks up and forms an Aleutian low and the other is still consolidated. We need it to stretch out and come pay us a visit or break apart come Feb.
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KyloG said:
The tPV consolidates in the wrong spot so we have to wait for it to do something. A piece breaks up and forms an Aleutian low and the other is still consolidated. We need it to stretch out and come pay us a visit or break apart come Feb.
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Oh.... that's going in the right direction at a snail's pace

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SD said:
Oh.... that's going in the right direction at a snail's pace

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Once it consolidates we are kind of screwed until it stretches and/or breaks apart. Hopefully right in time for Fab Feb.
 
KyloG said:
Once it consolidates we are kind of screwed until it stretches and/or breaks apart. Hopefully right in time for Fab Feb.
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What's 384 at h5. I know you've provided a lot but figured I'd ask

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Jon said:
That account flips like the modeling. Every post is what the latest modeled temp departure is. Not sure how anyone can follow that with confidence.

He can’t take away this cold that is ending up verifying very, very nicely for early next week.




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Heck for some of us the colder air comes tomorrow and into Friday morning before a very very brief Saturday afternoon warmup. After that the really cold air comes in.
 

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Not getting the trends we want out of this first system. EPS support really falling off and that's a very bleak sign.

But models are still spitting out a wide range of scenarios so there is still some significant wiggle room left.
The JMA is the closest I've seen to a monster but still its just too far offshore.

If there is a significant shift in the works we would likely see it in the next 24-36 hrs. Our energy is dropping down in the 120-144 timeframe so we should start to see some consistency run-to-run over the next few runs. Its in this 100-140 timeframe we usually see our significant trends if they occur. Of course they can happen up to hour 0 as well.

In my opinion this is becoming a long shot but its still totally a wintry threat.
At least it will feel like winter. 50s and 60s in the mountains is not winter lol.

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Actually fairly impressive EPS snowfall output. This is for Greensboro.. get a fairly dry week after Saturday but then precip ramps up just as temps start to drop. There is roughly 20+ members with snow in the 26-30th range.

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