Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[NWMSGuy]

Wow, that's a good point. All this mjo discussion could be hogwash. Didn't help us the last 2 years.

Even though they were great phases, I also wonder what fly in the ointment, so to say, were/might have been at play to mask the real outcomes of those phases?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Weren’t u saying like 2 hours ago it wasn’t going to happen since we’ve been “hot” and wet

Yea some of the initial fantasy storms I’m not sold on. But I see a door is starting to open to allow some true cold air down...even if it dries us out..the cold I see could lead to a sig. winter storm event at some point in late Jan.

 

[SD]

Have to think poleward propagation of +aam from the recent spike is helping here too

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[GaWx]

Wow, 12Z EPS +PNA!!

 

[Metwannabe]

Wow, 12Z EPS +PNA!!
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And actually start heading in that direction around @258, nice nice NICE!!

 

[Metwannabe]

It's out there still I know but dang from around D10 on that pattern looking fairly stable and dare I say locked in

 

[whatalife]

I’ll just leave the EPS days 10-15 temps right here.

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[John1122]

The EPS is beautiful, it's colder than the GEFS 10-15 and much more reliable this winter. Great ridging all along the west coast and into Alaska. Several waves of moisture traverse the cold across the South and Southeast.

 

[GaWx]

Makes you wonder...last 2 years we went though low amp 7-8-1-2 and high 7-8-1-2 for Jan into Feb which resulted in the same pattern GEFS keeps spitting out. Things that make you go hmmm...

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Yeah, N Pacific ridge FTL. Feb 18 and 19 both had very strong -EPO/-PNA/N Pac Ridge as well as +NAO. Also, 2019 had a strong +AO.

 

[Ethan80963]

Just to show this is a pretty big increase, especially over Western NC, will be interesting to see if the mean will continue to increase. Looks like it will be based on the projected pattern we look to be entering.

00z


12z

 

[Arcc]

And actually start heading in that direction around @258, nice nice NICE!!
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To do a Larry, do not look at the EPS members at 288hrs.......

 

[Oconeexman]

To do a Larry, do not look at the EPS members at 288hrs.......

Oh you know I'm gonna look now...evil!
Good to see the eps on board for sure

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah, N Pacific ridge FTL. Feb 18 and 19 both had very strong -EPO/-PNA/N Pac Ridge as well as +NAO. Also, 2019 had a strong +AO.

and if I remember correctly the coldest air got stuck on the other side of the globe and with the raging Pacific jet had no chance of coming over the pole

 

[Arcc]

Some of the members at 360hrs are Late January 2014.

 

[Rain Cold]

It's pretty cool when the pattern thread is finally busier than the Whamby thread. Make the most of it!

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Just in time for the 20th anniversary of the Carolina Crusher

 

[tramadoc]

Just in time for the 20th anniversary of the Carolina Crusher

The 850’s aren’t super cold. Maybe -3° C over NC.

 

[SD]

The 850’s aren’t super cold. Maybe -3° C over NC.

We've got 3 degrees of wiggle room!

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[Ethan80963]

Just to show this is a pretty big increase, especially over Western NC, will be interesting to see if the mean will continue to increase. Looks like it will be based on the projected pattern we look to be entering.

00z
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12z
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And to and on to this the mean wasn’t the only thing that went up the amount of members went up as well. Here’s an example of the 00z run vs the newest 12z run. Look Great

00z

12z

 

[cd2play]

The 850’s aren’t super cold. Maybe -3° C over NC.

That almost means ice storms.