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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Cad Wedge NC said:
Folks, the models are firing warning shots. The only thing we can say today is that there will be a favorable period for a winter storm before the end of the month. Still a lot of things to be sorted out, but I like seeing fantasy storms showing up. I counted 14/20 GFS ensembles giving mby some sort of winter weather before the 31st. Far cry from the pattern we are in right now.
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Did anyone post the GFS ensembles or did I miss it?
 
deltadog03 said:
What a pattern if the euro control run is right...storm after storm after storm just dropping down and rolling across..
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I guess we just have to be patient. Had to get through the noise on the models with the mirage storms, but in a way they could have been setting off the alarms for what's to come.
 
Check out the snow showers in the gulf lol
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_45.png
 
packfan98 said:
Do you think we will hit the snowfall average?
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Yes, even as putrid as this pattern has been and given the fact It usually takes 2 solid hits for us to hit climo snowfall wise.
Several times weve hit climo with one whopper and unfortunately we always deal with mixing issues during our storms more times than not, thanks to warm noses.
Im confident because all winter and going forward its a slam dunk given the moisture is gonna keep coming every 3 to 5 days minimum.
What weve been waiting on is the cold. Even if it takes 24 to 48 hr lapses thanks to the progressive pattern, we dont have to have vodka cold wall to wall to see snow in our area. Its just a matter of sitting back now, starting Friday and watching for the 2 players to time it out, show up together.
 
accu35 said:
Check out the snow showers in the gulf lol
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_45.png
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I think this first storm will show us that we can’t count on the northwest trend that much the rest of winter or we should be cautious about assuming we get a north west trend ...

In other terms this image shows how cold it’s really about to get which will definitely get everyone back in the wInter shock mood .. this cold air doesn’t like moving so it gives more credibility to the potential CAD event with the storm after it ... we nail that CAD event we can bet positive trends will continue for the board wide storm thereafter
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think this first storm will show us that we can’t count on the northwest trend that much the rest of winter or we should be cautious about assuming we get a north west trend ...

In other terms this image shows how cold it’s really about to get which will definitely get everyone back in the wInter shock mood .. this cold air doesn’t like moving so it gives more credibility to the potential CAD event with the storm after it ... we nail that CAD event we can bet positive trends will continue for the board wide storm thereafter
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Yep, like last years failed coastal, but aye I’ll take the confluence from that trough that tries to develop a coastal for a miller B, since it’s the only storm we seem to get that does sum
 
CAD signal is there just a tick warm as modeled. Some ice for a very few western NC.
 
SD said:
Not a lot left to saturate on this sounding
339a8226d56c5d895621199827c77740.jpg


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Yeah not much to work with, though sometimes it doesn't take a lot.....I have seen similar setups that pay off especially down here if there can be any kind of surface low formation offshore.....need it to dig a bit more and go negative or at least full neutral....
 
Would think the sub 32 is more expansive than just western Wilkes County after all that cold prior. Hope lives on for now Jan. 24th.
 
SE RIDGE FORMING.
 

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BufordWX said:
Well... it’s something.View attachment 31111View attachment 31112
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I’ve also been watching this and brought it up a day or so ago .. some Gefs members are more amped with the clipper system shooting down and its able to squeeze out some good snow showers (on some ensemble members) this looks like a flizzard but I’ll take it if it’s a precursor to bigger and better thing
 
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Downeastnc said:
Yeah not much to work with, though sometimes it doesn't take a lot.....I have seen similar setups that pay off especially down here if there can be any kind of surface low formation offshore.....need it to dig a bit more and go negative or at least full neutral....
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Looks like this wave is still up near the pole and has an interaction with some other waves in about 72 hours. Maybe we can find a way to get it stronger and west

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A little warm up be nice after temps in the low teens and single digits in the mtns. Don’t like it that cold for long periods of time.
 
GFS didn’t give us our 50/50 low this run. Look what it tried to do with that big bombing coastal this run vs 18z..

00z
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18z
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We need that other LP over the Atlantic to trend stronger over the next several days similar to what happy hour was showing
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Warm ground temps before our snowstorm in late Jan
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Probably not it’s only one day and the temps behind the front are way cold enough to bring any type of small ground warm up from continuing ... plus in January we know ground temps are no problem to overcome After 30 minutes of heavy snow
 
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