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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

We've already seen this today but here's the time period I'm interested in, nice setup with an active STJ, just need well timed cold air and a shortwave entering the SW US/Baja. I know it's been too much to ask so far with these disappearing good looking patterns, but I trying to stay positive about this and hopefully we can score.
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Folks, the models are firing warning shots. The only thing we can say today is that there will be a favorable period for a winter storm before the end of the month. Still a lot of things to be sorted out, but I like seeing fantasy storms showing up. I counted 14/20 GFS ensembles giving mby some sort of winter weather before the 31st. Far cry from the pattern we are in right now.
 
I hope everyone realizes that even if the s/w is real, it’s absolutely 100% gonna cut up through AR based on 500mb and logic, right?

Beautiful show for Missouri though.

gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Folks, the models are firing warning shots. The only thing we can say today is that there will be a favorable period for a winter storm before the end of the month. Still a lot of things to be sorted out, but I like seeing fantasy storms showing up. I counted 14/20 GFS ensembles giving mby some sort of winter weather before the 31st. Far cry from the pattern we are in right now.
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As I've mentioned already today, this pattern verbatim is very good for winter weather. The energy in the SW, a ridge in Canada, strong 50/50 low. Hope we can maintain this look through future runs.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0212800.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0256000.png
 
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Six Mile Wx said:
Euro ControlView attachment 31086Euro MeanView attachment 31090GFSView attachment 31091GEFSView attachment 31093
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What a roller coaster the last 48 hours have been. I know it is a long way out, but it is nice seeing both the Euro and GFS ops and ensembles show this one at the same time. I believe that is a first with all four this winter, and having the Euro on board is a big plus.

I would not be surprised at all if this disappears and then comes back again on the models the next several days. We have seen that happen plenty of times before when we actually get a winter storm, where the models show a good storm a long way out, then lose it, and then pick it up again.
 
Ollie Williams said:
As I've mentioned already today, this pattern verbatim is very good for winter weather. The energy in the SW, ridge a ridge in Canada, strong 50/50 low. Hope we can maintain this look through future runs.View attachment 31097View attachment 31098
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I like the anomaly configuration for the most part. But I wonder how cold the air is that will be available? The PV's going traveling for a bit.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Folks, the models are firing warning shots. The only thing we can say today is that there will be a favorable period for a winter storm before the end of the month. Still a lot of things to be sorted out, but I like seeing fantasy storms showing up. I counted 14/20 GFS ensembles giving mby some sort of winter weather before the 31st. Far cry from the pattern we are in right now.
Click to expand...
Ollie Williams said:
As I've mentioned already today, this pattern verbatim is very good for winter weather. The energy in the SW, a ridge in Canada, strong 50/50 low. Hope we can maintain this look through future runs.View attachment 31097View attachment 31098
Click to expand...

And a lot of times we have to go through some "noise" with the models showing possible storms and them not materializing before we actually get one that's the real deal.
 
Arcc said:
I hope everyone realizes that even if the s/w is real, it’s absolutely 100% gonna cut up through AR based on 500mb and logic, right?

Beautiful show for Missouri though.

gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png
Click to expand...
Not necessarily... it will come down to how much that confluence in the north-east acts on the advancing wave. Also the timing of that piece of energy diving down in the northern stream will have big implications on where the storm tracks. A lot of small things have to align to get the outcome we saw on this 18z run and we are just not in the range to nail those features down yet. Let's just get the pattern change first, and then see where we are with the individual pieces of the puzzle after that. This will be our best period so far this winter. Enjoy the chase.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Essentially if it wasn't for that energy that sweeps up the s/w, without it, this goes negative too quickly then goes to Missouri.
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Exactly. If you watch, the FV3 holds that northern wave almost completely still or slightly backs it SW. In reality, that joker will dive in and phase and north it goes.
 
Arcc said:
I hope everyone realizes that even if the s/w is real, it’s absolutely 100% gonna cut up through AR based on 500mb and logic, right?

Beautiful show for Missouri though.

gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png
Click to expand...
Why that flow supports due E

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