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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

WxWatch said:
I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.
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It's weather man, it's going to do what it wants regardless. Just relax and let everything get sorted out, it ALWAYS does.
 
WxWatch said:
I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.
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No one should be discouraged from sharing their opinions, but I think the problem a lot of people have with you is that you speak in absolutes and "almighty authority". Even the professional meteorologists who post here don't post like that.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS then is a warmer run vs the 0Z EPS for the followup system and too warm for most for wintry it appears. Yuck. But I suspect there'd still be some wintry members for CAD regions at least
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yeah the third system towards the weekend of the 24th would need work but its so far out and things will change so much . I mean just look at the flipping and flopping with the ensembles
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS mean finally cools back down some to a little BN on 1/28 but it is not nearly as cold as the 0Z EPS or the 12Z GEFS. ALEET, folks, and not in a good way.
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Okay? It’s one run. It’ll change
 
GaWx said:
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H5 doesn’t really make sense so I don’t see a cause for concern. At the surface it’s only ~5F warmer which still puts us in RDU at climo for late jan. It being day 11+ doesn’t have me worried, model could easily pop a ridge there with 00z


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EPS has the MJO going back into the phase 6 with a deeply +EPO, flooding pacific air, it’s better than a SER but it’s definitely not a good winter storm pattern in the LR based off what it shows, I consider that something to watch, hopefully it’s a blip and not a soon to be dumpster fire part 2
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
 
KyloG said:
Yeah...whoops. The complete -EPO fail is definitely concerning...the models have tried to take it negative a couple of times this winter and it's failed to materialize. When that continually happens it makes you pause and wonder if it's ever going to come.

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Yeah, and throw that GEFS -EPO Into the mix certainly makes things more questionable
 
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