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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Myfrotho704_ said:
one more swing back SW and....... View attachment 30866
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Yeah. The gulf boom Miller A look was showing up days ago and I feel like this coastal look is relatively new to the scheme. Won’t take much at all to make it revert back. My coastal rule may not be at play here
 
I like where the Euro is headed, I also like where the gefs is headed. Little more NW trend and places along the south Texas/Lousiana/MS/Al/GA and Carlionas are going to score.
 
Storm5 said:
For those of us back to the west we need the trough further to the west for this to work out for us
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Yep. We're all fighting progressive tendencies, as there is one s/w after another. You guys want the flow to slow down a little and allow the western ridging to hang back and steepen. That allows the trough to remain farther west and the northern energy to dive farther south and phase with the southern energy more quickly. A little extra blocking would help too.
 
12Z EPS mean suggests most members more progressive/dry even on the coast with dry westerly 500 mb flow instead of wet SW flow thus keeping precip offshore. But some very close calls at least and maybe a few members will be on the coast when members come out.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’d love to see that low pop in the gulf before amplifying and shooting poleward. Still time. I’m not yet convinced this is a true coastal
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Yup, we got to have it popping in the gulf! Most times Coastals no good for the western NC/SC.


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The 12Z EPS then is a warmer run vs the 0Z EPS for the followup system and too warm for most for wintry it appears. Yuck. But I suspect there'd still be some wintry members for CAD regions at least
 
LovingGulfLows said:
You act like we're only three days away. There's still like 8-10 days left.
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I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.
 
WxWatch said:
I know I am; I'm being aggressive with these models this winter season. If they don't show solid consistency with something to my liking, I'm moving on to the next. I better refrain myself from posting further about this cause I don't want to get banned.
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There’s been a clear consistent trend to a trough digging more SW, You can’t just look at a few runs and precip maps that show nothing and write it off, there more to it , and going back to that Canadian ridge, it doesn’t hurt the system, it helps keep it separated from any NS/SS interaction that would cause a early phase
 
GaWx said:
The run 12Z EPS overall is sig warmer than 0Z late in January. Hopefully it is drunk but we've seen this many times.
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Could it be first red flag? I sure hope not. But some outlets give cause to be concerned. Short lived cold.


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