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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Anyone
That looks a little like the operational on steroids.
Would you please post the other 50 members when you get a chance? TIA
That looks a little like the operational on steroids.
Would you please post the other 50 members when you get a chance? TIA
NCCWOP9077
Member
Definitely a few members with the coastal low solution.
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Thanks. So, the 12Z EPS surprisingly to me has ~25% of its members with snow most concentrated on/near the coast. I didn't expect that many and having that high a % of EPS members there is quite uncommon since snow there is pretty rare and this is the EPS, not the usually colder GEFS. This is consistent with the Myrtle Beach snow members that were posted. Interesting to say the least. Check this out @Stormsfury, @Bham 99, other CHS area members, and even @pcbjr. Also, @Shaggy and @Downeastnc.
Avalanche
Member
The Pamlico sound special
@Ollie Williams, do you have the 12Z EPS mean? TIA. Though in this case, I agree with @Arcc that the mean probably isn't as useful as looking at the individual members.
Honestly If we can get a stronger low pressure off the west coast to pump that western ridge into Canada and sharpen it/nudge it west and allow The trough/ULL more SW, it could have a very very similar look to jan 2018, and you know how that worked
MichaelJ
Member
Long way to go but this thing will likely come NW as this is the Climatology
Honestly If we can get a stronger low pressure off the west coast to pump that western ridge into Canada and sharpen it/nudge it west and allow The trough/ULL more SW, it could have a very very similar look to jan 2018, and you know how that worked
As it is now, about 25% of 12Z EPS members have a system that is somewhat similar to the other big Jan 2018 storm at least in location/track in case it were to persist and also not do the usual NW shift.
gotta be happy if your back west in the Triad to the blue ridge. We need it near Myrtle at this range if not further offshore as it’s likely to come TOO far north-west
I am glad you guys got your historic storm a couple years ago, really am. But that Jan 3rd 2018 storm haunts me to this day. I bought in so hard to that NW trend. What made it worse was 2 weeks later, we got warm nosed. If we are going to do Jan 2018 again, please let this thing at least reach Columbia.
Might not matter much, but FWIW the ICON already had a better initial trough in Canada at hour 120 vs 12z 
Here's the mean, it's not impressive, but, you can see the highest totals are along the coast.
Matches the euro nicely rn
Don’t see that happening sir with that vicious trough that’s forecasted.
Yeah, I'm certainly not expecting a 2nd once in a generation winter storm just 2 years later. Having 2 wintry events with one major and the other minor just two years apart is one thing and is rare enough. But another early Jan 2018 storm just 2 years later? The closest thing I can find to that is way back in the 1890s (1/1893 and 2/1895) and then the winter of 1851-2 had two nice ones though neither as big as 1/2018 in liquid equiv. 1976-7 also had two but neither was anywhere near 1/2018 for liquid equiv. 1985-6 also had two but with neither major.
Edit: Winter of 1799-1800 had multiple events, including the real big one.
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It’s actually possible with current trends we’re seeing today (trough trending west)