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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Storm5 said:
Northern stream isn’t that far behind . It’s all timing as always ANd most importantly it’s post day ten


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I agree. Still lots of potential and things to iron out. Could this be a year where we get something to pop up without much warning?
 
Storm5 said:
Northern stream isn’t that far behind . It’s all timing as always ANd most importantly it’s post day ten .

Edit :Even with a faster northern stream and or slower southern energy temps still suck
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At this point based on recent model consensus, I'd be surprised if there doesn't end up being 1-2 threats within 1/21-5 to cause a separate thread to be needed. I'm not saying one is needed now because it is still too early. But by late week/weekend, I predict there will be a thread warranted and created.
 
GaWx said:
At this point based on recent model consensus, I'd be surprised if there doesn't end up being 1-2 threats within 1/21-5 to cause a separate thread to be needed. I'm not saying one is needed now because it is still too early. But by late week/weekend, I predict there will be a thread warranted and created.
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I think there will be as well even if it’s just a thread for Brent lol . I just hope we score by the 25th cause things look hostile after that


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GFS still looks wonky with our coastal next week, not really diving into it but seems its struggling with how to resolve the energy. I still like where the euro and eps are at this lead time. GFS will catch on eventually

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Interestingly, with the 2nd wave on the GEFS, there's about 6 or 7 that don't at all just dive south. There's even a couple that don't bring snow into Alabama/Georgia because of how far north they are (mainly TN/NC).

So, there's a chance here.
 
TOMMOROW Marks the half way point of Met winter. Never been shutout imby. However if we miss this upcoming 12 to 15 day window, i will have to entertain the unthinkable. Cant tell if we head back to the crap pattern thats dominated this winter or the re shuffle holds serve. Words of wisdom is to "always bet the streak." Forget who coined that over on easternwx back in the day. But its stood the test of time.
 
KyloG said:
We don’t need arctic blocking but we can’t have this either.

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That really matches the indices well. Not sure it matters what the MJO does with a strong undisturbed PV with an active STJ. Doesn't exactly scream cold to me. The GFS is flat out wrong on a -EPO and we know that. There are no signs of a SSWE either. With what I'm seeing today there is no indication of a good pattern locking in. And if it does with every tele against us then we have to acknowledge that there are forces simply unknown to weather forecasting at this time. But I'm sure theres no magic formula hiding in the bushes ready to run out and save us. We need changes up top and we simply aren't seeing it.
 
People see operational models without snow and for 1 or 2 cycles and just go canceling like it’s nothing ... we’re seeing a good amount of cold and definitely much more cold than we’ve been seeing be modeled in the past half of winter .. in no way shape or form can u cancel winter at this juncture .. some of y’all are being ridiculous
 
Welp I'll chase this for the next 4-5 days. Btw does anyone have the eps h5 in the late hours?

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Nick_boynton_ said:
People see operational models without snow and for 1 or 2 cycles and just go canceling like it’s nothing ... we’re seeing a good amount of cold and definitely much more cold than we’ve been seeing be modeled in the past half of winter .. in no way shape or form can u cancel winter at this juncture .. some of y’all are being ridiculous
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I don't know who you're referring to, but I havent canceled winter. I simply stated that in my opinion this cold pattern is just a mirage and stated plenty of facts to back that up. If you don't agree then please tell me why you think its going to be a great pattern setting up?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
That really matches the indices well. Not sure it matters what the MJO does with a strong undisturbed PV with an active STJ. Doesn't exactly scream cold to me. The GFS is flat out wrong on a -EPO and we know that. There are no signs of a SSWE either. With what I'm seeing today there is no indication of a good pattern locking in. And if it does with every tele against us then we have to acknowledge that there are forces simply unknown to weather forecasting at this time. But I'm sure theres no magic formula hiding in the bushes ready to run out and save us. We need changes up top and we simply aren't seeing it.
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In the short term this doesn’t look promising but climo says our best month is ahead of us. This is a workable pattern...the tPV just needs to get stretched/shoved off the pole.
 
KyloG said:
In the short term this doesn’t look promising but climo says our best month is ahead of us. This is a workable pattern...the tPV just needs to get stretched/shoved off the pole.
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I agree it's a lot better than what we see now. And it could progress to a good look. I think the models the last few days jumped the gun and we were always further from a favorable pattern locking in that what was shown. Its better than a constant west coast trough and north Pacific death ridge look. But as you said until the tPV moves and we see changes up there I'm not sure MJO will be a factor at all unless it was high amp 8 and 1. That might would get things shuffling around up there. And I'll admit I don't have a clue what it'll take to dislodge the tPV. I just know the next two weeks doesn't look great for doing it.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I'm certainly not expecting a 2nd once in a generation winter storm just 2 years later. Having 2 wintry events with one major and the other minor just two years apart is one thing and is rare enough. But another early Jan 2018 storm just 2 years later? The closest thing I can find to that is way back in the 1890s (1/1893 and 2/1895) and then the winter of 1851-2 had two nice ones though neither as big as 1/2018 in liquid equiv. 1976-7 also had two but neither was anywhere near 1/2018 for liquid equiv. 1985-6 also had two but with neither major.

Edit: Winter of 1799-1800 had multiple events, including the real big one.
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In Saskatchewan The winter of 1799-1800 was so unseasonably mild that bison herds and the hunting bands that pursued them stayed out on the plains.

People probably forgot, at least momentarily, how bad Saskatchewan winters could be.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks. So, the 12Z EPS surprisingly to me has ~25% of its members with snow most concentrated on/near the coast. I didn't expect that many and having that high a % of EPS members there is quite uncommon since snow there is pretty rare and this is the EPS, not the usually colder GEFS. This is consistent with the Myrtle Beach snow members that were posted. Interesting to say the least. Check this out @Stormsfury, @Bham 99, other CHS area members, and even @pcbjr. Also, @Shaggy and @Downeastnc.
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Thanks for that. This is my first winter on the coast. I imagine there are ten times more forecast busts in regards to snow than it snowing. And I imagine it's one of those things where you're really not certain it's going to do it until it starts.
 
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