• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

From DT: Aleet Aleet! Not really..........

I still see 2 threats for NC VA MD DEL...Jan 22 AND especially Jan 25.

Remember VA MD NC WVA DEL ... we are not PA ... we are not New England ...or OH or IND. Most of the time when WE get moderate or significant snows it occur when the cold air is already in place. In these other places I just mentionerd it is much easier to get rain changing over to snow with significant accumulations. In this portion of the country outside the mountains of VA western MD and WVA ....the climatology / history of winter storms strongly favors having the cold air in place first before the storm actually begins. Have a colder come in at the last possible second almost never works out in this area
 
Clem282340 said:
Is that good or bad
Click to expand...

He’s basically just saying the 850mb westerly wind burst is influencing the RMM phase diagrams, and that the MJO is not really at a high amplitude but is being projected high on RMM phase diagrams due to the WWB and will come back down to earth once the WWB dies down, which is probably that drop toward the circle of death in the phase diagrams that we see (without going into phase 8)

It looks like a real MJO by RMM components (OLR, U850, VP200) etc so I’m not quite sure the meaning, he may think it might not have much influence into feb? Or he may not have a “impact for winter” point and is just talking about MJO phase diagrams because that’s what he does. Kinda how HM talks about stuff but doesn’t necessarily link it to a long range winter consequence.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I remember awhile back @GaWx had a post about Atlanta winter storms and the MJO phases and surprisingly, Atlanta had a lot of storms in phase 4. The MJO is obviously just part of the equation and the warm phases aren't always warm and the cold phases aren't always cold (Feb 2019 for example). Me I'm personally more concerned about the strong tPV and lack of any blocking up there more than the MJO at this point for getting a sustained cold pattern.
 
Robert West said:
Does anyone know where Eric is?
Click to expand...
I’m at the 100th annual AMS conference in Boston and I had a poster presentation earlier today.
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I agree fully about a pattern change coming. You make a good point there. My opinion is it isn't exactly what people want or think it is with a huge trough over the east locked in with multiple threats. Those cold models all have one thing in common, a -EPO which has been a unicorn all year and we have a strong consolidated tPV up near the pole with a +AO and +NAO. Not sure where all the love for phase 7 came from. And down below is the newest GEFS which doesn't get to 8.View attachment 30921View attachment 30922
Click to expand...
There is absolutely nothing wrong with phase 7 in January, it produces about twice as many winter storms as any other mjo phase at any time of the year. Safe to say we’re completely fine
 
SD said:
Icon gets something going later in the run log snow in central/ eastern nc

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That period is definitely worth watching. EPS mean had some coastal snow, but with the struggles on the OPs we may be waiting a while before we see any kind of identifiable trend. Hopefully more snowfall members inland with the 00z


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Buckle up because the rest of this run is about to be chaotic I feel. The wave behind the one that has been producing for Texas seems even closer now, lets see what happens.
 
SD said:
Icon gets something going later in the run log snow in central/ eastern nc

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That coastal was about to go bonkers at the end of its run. Why do I get the feeling this will eventually be too far west for me

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
From Jason Simpson about Huntsville
This is in Celsius AND it's about 5,000' above the ground, but a little bit of math can tell you what this would be as a daytime high next Tuesday (if it were exactly right). That would be about 26ºF *for a high temperature.*

Let's say it's off by 10 degrees (too cold by 10ºF). That's still a doggone cold day!

We're expecting that we are at least looking at highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the upper 10s and lower 20s.

Huntsville is right about 9ºF above average for January so far; Muscle Shoals is close to 10ºF above average. It could get so cold, so fast, and so long that we end January with practically 'average' temperatures (the monthly average, that is). jma.png
 
Looked like for a minute that some form of precip may actually survive, but nope. The energy's looking too strung out and although the southernmost piece is weaker, it seems like it's still affecting it.

Also another problem, the HP is weaker.

Edit: I lied, the southernmost piece of energy might end up playing in on the third wave, which will likely be too warm again here.
 
Last edited:
metwannabe said:
One thing for sure GFS not really biting on the coastal next week, yet. Trough was deeper but too far east

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep on to the euro. That's one nice cold shot early next week though may end up with a day that stays below freezing

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top