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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
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WXinCanton
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
Storm5 link said:let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......
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That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
H
HartselleWeather
Guest
The euro had a real nice look for a lot of folks board wide.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
Re: January 2017 Discussion
That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
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I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out
WXinCanton link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3851#msg3851 date=1482951947]
let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......
Good Grief .....Sign me up
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That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
[/quote]
I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out
Tagat link said:
It was a good while out.
Shawn link said:
Seems like a February 2014 redux for us, which is fine. We didn't get much snow, but we got a nice sleetstorm which was a lot better than the nasty icestorm folks got to our south and east.
Re: January 2017 Discussion
Nothing cuts there. That is up there with the super fantasy looks of all time.
Storm5 link said:let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......
Good Grief .....Sign me up
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Nothing cuts there. That is up there with the super fantasy looks of all time.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?
Agreed, we don't need to focus on details. With it being this far out, the things we can focus on is the placement of winter weather (which area's are likely to see snow and area's that are likely to see ZR/IP) and model agreement.Storm5 link said:
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WXinCanton link said:
I wouldn't worry about specifics now. It shows cold rain for my back yard. If you blended the Euro and GFS though, many many more of us be happy. Just happy it's picking it up.
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That's a super impressive dual block. I like that the Greenland block is coming in a little stronger instead of going the other way.
GainesvilleWX link said:
Because the 500mb look is good and supportive. Aside from some poop runs here and there, this look is really trying to hold on across various guidance. The storm threats are gonna jump around of course.. but it's good to see what is possible in the pattern we could potentially have.
Shortly, 500mb/overall pattern helps give credit to Wintry events like we saw on GFS/Euro today.
WXinCanton
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
[/quote]
I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out
[/quote]
Oh yeah. So far out, but if that blocking verifies like it shows I would not be surprised at an adjustment south. Usually can't say because we usually don't have much blocking/-NAO thus we get the NW trend But on the Euro there is plenty of blocking.
NorthGaWinter link said:[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg3863#msg3863 date=1482952542]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3851#msg3851 date=1482951947]
let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......
Good Grief .....Sign me up
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
That is about as good of look you can get. Check please
[/quote]
I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out
[/quote]
Oh yeah. So far out, but if that blocking verifies like it shows I would not be surprised at an adjustment south. Usually can't say because we usually don't have much blocking/-NAO thus we get the NW trend But on the Euro there is plenty of blocking.
Because there is dual blocking, we are going to go into a favorable pattern that increases the chance for winter wx across the south. Also, there could be a LP coming up along the frontal boundary in the Gulf per 12z GFS.GainesvilleWX link said:
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WXinCanton
Member
GainesvilleWX link said:
Because we are all weenies at heart.
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywayGainesvilleWX link said:
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Storm5
Member
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywaySD link said:
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not me Playa I've living on day 8 . Hell by ten it's starting to end slowly in your neck of the woods .
#day8isbetterthanday10
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H
HartselleWeather
Guest
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywaySD link said:
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Yea SD is right. A few years back we had highs right at 70 the day before and the next morning we had a 3 inch sleet storm.
Cary_Snow95
Member
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywayStorm5 link said:
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not me Playa I've living on day 8 . Hell by ten it's starting to end slowly in your neck of the woods .
#day8isbetterthanday10
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If the Euro went out another 24 hours I assume central NC would turn to all snow and get a good amount more
Storm5
Member
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywayHartselleWeather link said:
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Yea SD is right. A few years back we had highs right at 70 the day before and the next morning we had a 3 inch sleet storm.
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only need to go back to 2014 . all the meta here said not to worry cause it was in the 60s the day before
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HartselleWeather
Guest
Re: January 2017 Discussion
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Yes, I saw that, I'm still more focused on that possible 2nd wave, cause it forms at the end of the frontal boundary, plus it could come up from the Gulf, and we know what Gulf lows can do. That first wave could give the Carolinas some winter wx and then it's gone out to the Atlantic following that cutter.
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gulf lows cause way too many issues. I'd much rather have an overrunning event vs a gulf low . gulf lows will screw many with WAA and track issues
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I can't remember but was the 2 big snows we got in February in 2013 and 2014 overrunning events?
I'm not talking about the lakes cutter at all. it's the whiff the gfs has after that at day 8 . the same wave the cmc has . there could easily be two waves outside of any cutterStorm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Yes, I saw that, I'm still more focused on that possible 2nd wave, cause it forms at the end of the frontal boundary, plus it could come up from the Gulf, and we know what Gulf lows can do. That first wave could give the Carolinas some winter wx and then it's gone out to the Atlantic following that cutter.
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gulf lows cause way too many issues. I'd much rather have an overrunning event vs a gulf low . gulf lows will screw many with WAA and track issues
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[/quote]
I can't remember but was the 2 big snows we got in February in 2013 and 2014 overrunning events?
A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anywayCary_Snow95 link said:
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[/quote]
not me Playa I've living on day 8 . Hell by ten it's starting to end slowly in your neck of the woods .
#day8isbetterthanday10
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[/quote]
If the Euro went out another 24 hours I assume central NC would turn to all snow and get a good amount more
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There most likely would have been some great numbers across our area if that run continued. If the euro look were to be true I think we would be good for 4-8 that setup really likes to mix with sleet and cut our snow totals a bit
I really hope us central Alabama folks will be able to score out of this pattern, if you weren't really
In northern Jefferson or even north of cullman we got screwed while areas to our north were in pound town. We've always done better on a gulf low/Miller a type setup, but maybe there will be more cold to work with in a few weeks.
In northern Jefferson or even north of cullman we got screwed while areas to our north were in pound town. We've always done better on a gulf low/Miller a type setup, but maybe there will be more cold to work with in a few weeks.
Storm5
Member
here comes the biggest eps run of the winter......
Till Tonight at 2am .....
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Till Tonight at 2am .....
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Storm5 link said:
I am waiting for the weeklies tomorrow night >
I can say that when we created multiple threads recently for a very light ice storm, I was confused on which thread to post/read in. I would say actual threat threads should be 3-4 days out at the longest. People might start to get confused with all the separate waves floating around out there as we currently stand.
Shawn link said:
I am going to post about this in the banter thread....I think its a worthy discussion since its possible to have 2...3....4 active threads at once.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
AgreeShawn link said:
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ryan posted on twitter NCEP is having an ongoing melt down. Doubt we get an 18z run. UGH
I don't buy it. Too good to be true. Lol. Jk it's a nice look for sure. I see the SFC boundary looks down near I-10 (from what I could briefly tell) thats nice for sure.
Storm5
Member
good hopefully they have a other meltdown at 06zCary_Snow95 link said:
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Cary_Snow95
Member
good hopefully they have a other meltdown at 06zStorm5 link said:
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As long as we get a 00z lol
WXinCanton
Member
EPS looks pretty good
Cary_Snow95
Member
EPS mean for central NC is around 2" at day 11
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
And with that eps run, we have a serious threat WOW
Storm5
Member
Holy hell the eps....the control run is sweet . Looks like I might be traveling to the in laws next week........
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah shows something similar to the OP. Verbatim NC is still snowing when the run ends. The control's snow map is impressiveStorm5 link said:
whatalife
Moderator
They are limb trimming around my neighborhood... coincidence or sign? LOL!Shawn link said:
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Re: January 2017 Discussion
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Yikes, those are pines, not good during an ice storm. That power company must be those guest's that are here on the forum. Lol.
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They are limb trimming around my neighborhood... coincidence or sign? LOL!whatalife link said:
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[/quote]
Yikes, those are pines, not good during an ice storm. That power company must be those guest's that are here on the forum. Lol.
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