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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

With all the extremely high temps at the pole and low sea ice cover the AO has to start tanking at some point sending a big chunk of the polar vortex south.
 
GaWx link said:
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
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Larry, if you don't mind, what does it show for the Cumming area? Thanks!
 
bhs1975 link said:
With all the extremely high temps at the pole and low sea ice cover the AO has to start tanking at some point sending a big chunk of the polar vortex south.
Click to expand...
Depends on the blocking as well. Not just the AO, and a +PNA helps out too. But I think with a +PNA we would see mostly just cold and no winter storms (Systems are suppressed). Speaking of the polar vortex, I think it was 13-14 winter were it stayed cold for days. (The polar vortex was stuck). That is when we had the snowjam here in ATL in Feb. of 2014.

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The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

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SD link said:
The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

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Click to expand...
The falling AO is a great response to this. It will move is off the pole just enough and elongate the PV so we can hopefully cash in.
 
Met1985 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4114#msg4114 date=1482980903]
The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

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Click to expand...
The falling AO is a great response to this. It will move is off the pole just enough and elongate the PV so we can hopefully cash in.
[/quote]
c309681997c679acb1da86516f9f9897.jpg


The GFS is showing a weak warming over Asia that really disturbs the pv at 10mb. This should help keep cold in play through hopefully midmonth

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Lots of energy going on over the Rockies at 102-108. Nice trough coming down 500mb at 114 out west.

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CummingWx link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg4020#msg4020 date=1482968770]
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
Click to expand...

Larry, if you don't mind, what does it show for the Cumming area? Thanks!
[/quote]

Cumming gets some light ZR (~0.10) late on 1/7.
 
Alright y'all, it's looking like the 0z GFS is bringing the first wave further south than the past two runs from today. Snow coming in north and central TX at 174.

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I-20 winter event? Hmmm it's shaping up to be that way at 186.

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I don't know. This run looks a fair bit different with not as deep a trough and not as cold coming in.
 
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