Pattern January 2017 Discussion

[GaStorm]

[quote author=GaStorm link=topic=60.msg4034#msg4034 date=1482972161]
The AO is going negative in the 10-14 day forecast which is a huge drop from the 4+ value it was at not long ago. So we have a chance at a -NAO, -AO and nice -EPO to boot. This should be interesting!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

That's what happened in Jan 2014 after the strongly +AO of Dec 2013.
[/quote]

Definitely a very cold period in Jan 2014 with the notorious snowjam. One of the few storms to hit with 20s during the day as well.

 

[NWTENN]

Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

 

[Stormlover]

[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]Memphis National Weather Service Forecast Office

 

[JHS]

[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.

 

[SD]

[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]
Lol! Winner!
I think the server may be tested tonight! This thing is gaining momentum and looks good, even at 8-10 days out!! A lot better than looking at 15 days of AN!

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

 

[JLL1973]

This is from meg in afternoon discussion. I thought the euro was showing winter weather and GFS was not.

Long term...Tuesday through late next week...
The models diverge quite a bit through this time period. Both
models agree on cold air diving down into the southern U.S., but
only the GFS is producing potential winter weather with the arctic
front. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer in time. For now,
it just looks like a good blast of winter air for late next week.

 

[Metwannabe]

[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[SnowHusky]

This is from meg in afternoon discussion. I thought the euro was showing winter weather and GFS was not.

Long term...Tuesday through late next week...
The models diverge quite a bit through this time period. Both
models agree on cold air diving down into the southern U.S., but
only the GFS is producing potential winter weather with the arctic
front. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer in time. For now,
it just looks like a good blast of winter air for late next week.

Both models have been showing winter wx for days now. It's just the models are having a hard time agreeing with each other for the winter wx and timing.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Brick Tamland]

Using a shirtless pic of yourself as an avatar on a weather board is weird.

 

[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4051#msg4051 date=1482975882]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I felt like he was trolling more than adding. People have said they wanted him gone a while ago.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=60.msg4063#msg4063 date=1482976720]
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4051#msg4051 date=1482975882]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I felt like he was trolling more than adding. People have said they wanted him gone a while ago.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Good call...He was really irritating...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.

Interesting. I'm not sure what to believe yet, but the sigoal is there

 

[deltadog03]

can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Would be nice to just see more consistency  for sure. Gfs will likely squash it for now.

 

[NCSNOW]

can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Been thinking the same thing all afternoon. Instead of focusing on 8 to 10 days out. Watch the big players on the field
/ pattern and see if they are still there by this Sunday night. Then we'll be well inside the 72-100 hour  mark before the first precip, hopefully frozen breaks out in TX, Arkansas.

 

[$alt]

Using ensemble/mean is a best option right now this far out, imo.

 

[NCSNOW]

Got to get our blocks set up and the artic front through first. Then we can start focusing on 1 wave, 2 waves or just overruning.

 

[SnowHusky]

can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

It'll start coming out within an hr or so. Patience is key, when it comes to winter wx watching in the south. Oh yeah, if we can make it to the weekend with the looks we've been seeing lately, I'll be very excited.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[NCSNOW]

Using ensemble/mean is a best option right now this far out, imo.

Without a doubt. Watch ops at 5h and the ens 5h to hopefully keep a consensus minus the gfs op quick trigger to be progressive with the Atlantic blocking. Man the euro, EPS with the blocking, 50/50 low is drool worthy.  All this goes to pot or is the real deal 9f it's unfolding in its genesis come Sunday.