• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Here's the Day 7-10 CIPS analogs for the upcoming wintry wx threat. Definitely a tad north and west of where a majority of the guidance is atm, but closer to the EPS. Areas along/north of the I-40 corridor, the I-64 corridor, Virginia/West Virginia mountains, & southern plains are sitting pretty atm. This will obviously change at least somewhat over the next few days but interesting nonetheless.

Screen-Shot-2016-12-30-at-10.58.18-AM.png
 
jgee322 link said:
Hi!  I have just joined from Tunnel Hill, Ga (Catoosa county just south of Chattanooga, TN).  I don't know much about the science of the weather, but I am fascinated with it.  Thanks for providing a place that people can go to learn more about how weather works!

One quick question... what is SER?

I just signed up as well... I live in High Point, NC (but originally from north of Atlanta).  This site is awesome!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
This could be a beginning trend of how the GFS looked at one point about a week ago which I still have an image saved. I don't know if I should post it cause it may confuse people.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
What is an overrunning event and why is this a good thing? I see this mentioned a lot.
 
Remember the idea from the models a few days ago of 1/4 being the last warm day and 1/5 being the trasnsition to a sustained cold period? Well, per the 12Z Euro, that chill doesn't hold and it warms back up for much of the SE for 1/6 into early 1/7. Now, 1/7 has become a transition day prior to a cold 1/8-9. A pretty serious cold bias that we had in December seems to still be in play in the SE US per the model consensus, especially the GFS. Until this ends, be wary of the modeled timing of cold moving into the SE!
 
FLO link said:
What is an overrunning event and why is this a good thing? I see this mentioned a lot.
Click to expand...

It's a solution frequently seen winter after winter in model land but never shows up in real life anymore.  I think the last one was in 1888 or something.  ;D

If you can get an arctic front to stall across the SE, you can get waves (often disorganized) of low pressure to move along the front, which enhances lift, creating a prolonged precipitation event.  Relatively warmer, moister air riding up over the dense arctic boundary will produce wintry precip on the cold side of the boundary.  The other thing that's cool about these weak waves is that you don't get a ton of warm air injected into the mid-levels.  This means more snow and less ice.  In a nutshell, overrunning events tend to be favored, as they tend to produce a longer duration, mostly snow event over a wide area.  I hope that helps!
 
SD link said:
Good to see metwannabe is cashing in again today

d445ca24d43212707d0ae513057d8090.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well if it makes you feel any better here at the office nothing but I did hear rumors of flurries up my way.  If this is cashing in I'm screwed Lol

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4923#msg4923 date=1483120425]
Good to see metwannabe is cashing in again today

d445ca24d43212707d0ae513057d8090.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

He's definitely been in the sweet spot the last few winters.
[/quote]
Don't hate

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Well, if next weekend doesn't work out, it could just be setting us up for something better down the road. I always look at the last 10 days of January for something special to happen around here.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=bhs1975 link=topic=60.msg4924#msg4924 date=1483120525]
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4923#msg4923 date=1483120425]
Good to see metwannabe is cashing in again today

d445ca24d43212707d0ae513057d8090.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

He's definitely been in the sweet spot the last few winters.
[/quote]
Don't hate

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Lol  ;D
 
Neo link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg5081#msg5081 date=1483139673]
f0f67370635a62a2d2033f8fce83a45f.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Is this why models are predicting a -NAO with a cold in the west?
[/quote]
It doesn't help. It's good that it's disturbing the PV but I would love to keep the coldest anomalies in the strat close to us. If they are displaced

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
haven't even looked at the LR . But that would be interesting . I guess the good news is the PV looked like it was gonna wrap up and strengthen into February. Any kind of disruption would be a win

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
The 11 Alive Stormtrackers are showing models depicting snow flurries across north ga tomorrow evening...Elijah north.  Anyone seen this?  Temps have def trended colder all week for tomorrow. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MBell link said:
The 11 Alive Stormtrackers are showing models depicting snow flurries across north ga tomorrow evening...Elijah north.  Anyone seen this?  Temps have def trended colder all week for tomorrow. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I haven't seen those, but right now there is some all over the north GA area, not sure if it is reaching the ground.
 
Hopefully you can cash in next weekend. After the 10th it looks like the pattern at least relaxes if not totally breaks down. January will be much above normal temperature wise for most of the east coast
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Neo link=topic=60.msg5108#msg5108 date=1483147764]
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg5081#msg5081 date=1483139673]
f0f67370635a62a2d2033f8fce83a45f.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Is this why models are predicting a -NAO with a cold in the west?
[/quote]
It doesn't help. It's good that it's disturbing the PV but I would love to keep the coldest anomalies in the strat close to us. If they are displaced

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Although we have an unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, east-based -NAOs are usually conducive for wave 2 activity (i.e. splitting) on the polar vortex, it's not out of the question that happens here...
 
Just saw Alan tweet that we might make a run at record highs here Monday.  Which was set in 2000...3 weeks later....yep I'm grasping at straws...no I'm not ashamed

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
Just saw Alan tweet that we might make a run at record highs here Monday.  Which was set in 2000...3 weeks later....yep I'm grasping at straws...no I'm not ashamed

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glad to see I'm not only one thinking that and truth be told that's what Alan is thinking too, that's why he tweeted it.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
It is sleeting and spitting the random snowflake around the Chattanooga area right now. Should change over to rain before too long, but it is nice to hear hitting the ground...

Edit: More of a snow flurry IMBY at the moment...
 
chattagirl link said:
Light snow and sleet falling in Hixson- northern suburb of Chattanooga.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

LOL! I should have looked before posting  :)
 
HixsonWX link said:
[quote author=chattagirl link=topic=60.msg5484#msg5484 date=1483202076]
Light snow and sleet falling in Hixson- northern suburb of Chattanooga.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

LOL! I should have looked before posting  :)
[/quote]
It was a nice surprise... I'm all sleet now.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
 
That's the beauty of East TN...weather is so variable over short distances. It's 53, here in the Mtns right now lol.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
Visiting family in Paulding Co, GA and there is a rain/sleet mix falling right now. Temp on my car says 40.
 
I have rain/sleet falling here NE ATL...some snow falling as well

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top