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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

For those wanting a consolidated system, then the GEFS are for you

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

I'm going to go to bed dreaming of E6

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tellicowx, was you looking at the 850mb temps? Sometimes the model counts snow that is falling at 850mb but it's not actually on the ground lol.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4728#msg4728 date=1483076818]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

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[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

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[/quote]

I think euro might have had actual ZR removed from total snowfall maps.  As usual, sleet likely still counts as snow though.  I am not quite sure all the other details with ensembles etc.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
tellicowx, was you looking at the 850mb temps? Sometimes the model counts snow that is falling at 850mb but it's not actually on the ground lol.

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No I was following the ensemble members

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Shawn link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4730#msg4730 date=1483076946]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4728#msg4728 date=1483076818]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

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[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

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[/quote]

I think euro might have had actual ZR removed from total snowfall maps.  As usual, sleet likely still counts as snow though.  I am not quite sure all the other details with ensembles etc.
[/quote]
Thanks Shawn

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I would like to point out I just saw a GFS Para chart and it's very close if not down-right tied with Euro.  Outperforming the OP GFS at 500mb from Oct. through late Nov.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=60.msg4743#msg4743 date=1483080016]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4742#msg4742 date=1483079746]
lol this euro run

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It's dry here...what gives lol
[/quote]
way too much northern stream. really suppressed everything

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[/quote]

Isn't suppression good at this stage?
 
SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4746#msg4746 date=1483080556]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=60.msg4743#msg4743 date=1483080016]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4742#msg4742 date=1483079746]
lol this euro run

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It's dry here...what gives lol
[/quote]
way too much northern stream. really suppressed everything

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[/quote]

Isn't suppression good at this stage?
[/quote]
Yeah it's not bad. the euro had a colder push no doubt. it was close to being a huge overrunning event . just need to tweak a few things here and there. wasn't horrible, and was vastly improved vs 12z

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euro can't make up its mind on what to do with the northern stream energy. Even so , that run was close to a big oveerunning event

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Storm5 link said:
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I would take this all day long. :)

Btw. Just registered glad I found this site. I was missing TW.

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The EPS was much slower with the shortwave energy emerging out of the western US @ 0z last night, hence the cold air and associated arctic front has more time to penetrate further SE once the disturbance emerges out of the south-central Rockies, therefore its track also shifted SEward.... The slower this disturbance is, the further SE the eventual wave of low pressure will track & vis versa.
 
The Weather Channel just talked about the pattern change and how winter weather is possible for the South/Southeast with Arkansas, TN Valley and Western NC highlighted in a pink area.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

06Z GFS is better organized than the 0z. It's looking like it's becoming a consolidated system. (Possibly a Gulf low, or a Gulf coastal low pushing off to the Atlantic). That high is in the right place at 198 and it's still a cold run just like the 0z was. Less ZR I see as well on the 06z than the 0z, that's also another indication that this system could turn out to be an all snow event.

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Webberweather53 link said:
The EPS was much slower with the shortwave energy emerging out of the western US @ 0z last night, hence the cold air and associated arctic front has more time to penetrate further SE once the disturbance emerges out of the south-central Rockies, therefore its track also shifted SEward.... The slower this disturbance is, the further SE the eventual wave of low pressure will track & vis versa.
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sweet, it's what you discussed yesterday. Yeah there was a clear SE trend on the eps

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0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low poping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kickes out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low popping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kicks out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
e6b82cb89ced4a318b1afcdc45df164c.jpg


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Nice, if trends keep this the combination should make for some awesome totals assuming the cold stays.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
00z para
9be6004936db0755bcb153e18dff9f6f.jpg


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That looks more like it, there should be more snow in central NC on that para.

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SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4764#msg4764 date=1483102379]
0z Euro, (the 06z GFS has this as well) a low popping up along the stationary front over in the Atlantic then another one should come up along that stationary front (some where in the red circle) that low will be the more consolidated low that would produce more snow than the overrunning. Yes, there looks like there will be overrunning at first but when that low kicks out (some where in the red circle approximately) there won't be anymore overrunning cause the stationary front won't be there anymore.
e6b82cb89ced4a318b1afcdc45df164c.jpg


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Click to expand...

Nice, if trends keep this the combination should make for some awesome totals assuming the cold stays.
[/quote]
Yes, some places will turn out to have high totals if everything goes the way I'm seeing it.

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That would be the ideal scenario. Some overrunning at first to lock in the cold, then a more consolidated system with more precip coming afterwards.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

I think there would be more overrunning west of the apps rather than along the apps or east of the apps. That's why we see higher totals west of the apps on the models. Because west of the apps will be in that colder sector while east of the apps, the SER would still be hanging on.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I think there would be more overrunning west of the apps rather than along the apps or east of the apps. That's why we see higher totals west of the apps on the models.

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Would a more consolidated system give more opportunity for I-20 and I-85 folks to get some accumulation?


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The whole thing needs to slow up some and move a little further south, then pretty much everyone on the board would get the higher totals of snow. As it stands right now I think people like me across the upstate would see more IP/ ZR due to it being warmer.
 
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