Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

shoot give me an arctic front stretched across the region with energy around and I'll run like hell

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$alt · Dec 28, 2016

Storm5 link said:
shoot give me an arctic front stretched across the region with energy around and I'll run like hell

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Definitely. Regardless of where this run goes with a specific storm threat, it isn't a crapshoot or anything like that. Colder isn't bad and energy all over.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

lol we have the euro and it's ensembles on the same page why do we care what the 18z gfs says ???

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Tarheel1 · Dec 28, 2016

Storm5 link said:
lol we have the euro and it's ensembles on the same page why do we care what the 18z gfs says ???

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Lol! I bet if you switched that Euro run to this run of the GFS and the GFS spit out what the Euro showed, it be a different story!

Webberweather53 · Dec 28, 2016

GaWx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3968#msg3968 date=1482961469]
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

Atlanta got a severe ZR from this 12/28-9/1935 storm and a second one just 3-4 days later!
[/quote]

Thanks for the input Larry! Wow, that sucks lol. Yeah, I've noticed a lot of great NC winter storms have ended up as significant ZR events in Atlanta, I'm curious what the proportions are?

DopplerWx · Dec 28, 2016

yea, euro with the first wave is a hit and gfs has it suppressed but plenty cold, an ideal look ~190hrs out imo.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

DopplerWx link said:
yea, euro with the first wave is a hit and gfs has it suppressed but plenty cold, an ideal look ~190hrs out imo.

I agree it's the gfs with its happy northern stream domination

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$alt · Dec 28, 2016

yeah not quite sure much will get going for the deep south on the second wave here.. energy out west not digging anything like the 12z did with it out there.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

18z gfs is yet again pushing the block out faster vs all other guidance

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SnowHusky · Dec 28, 2016

Cold air is there, 18z GFS waits till the high pushes off to the east and then the energy gets kicked up at 228. CAD setting up so far with a strong high...1041 at 240

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$alt · Dec 28, 2016

and there goes the crap icy storm for SC, South-Central GA. :/ 1041HP holdong on and precip blossoming by hour 240. snowy/icy around TN. could be quite icy if the high stays in place on future frames.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

can't wait for the gefs . no doubt it will look nothing like this op run

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$alt · Dec 28, 2016

Yep icy into NC/Upstate SC after an initial burst into Central/South GA & SC . Low pops off the SC coast.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs

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packfan98 · Dec 28, 2016

Great signs with today's runs. There will always be variations from run-to-run. Model biases are starting to show themselves a bit I believe. GFS seems to be too strong squashing energy with the northern stream. I am curious about one thing with the ensembles. What is causing the misses on the individual members? Is it squashing the energy too? If so, it's a great look to have at this lead time. Climo is working for us...cold air appears to be there...some blocking...overrunning is classic with no worries about cutters or miller A's that are too wrapped up...maybe not as much of a NW trend as the days approach because of the setup???

whatalife · Dec 28, 2016

Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs

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Take it and run w/it this far out...

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Arcc · Dec 28, 2016

Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs

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Hmmm, What is January 2014?

whatalife · Dec 28, 2016

packfan98 link said:
Great signs with today's runs. There will always be variations from run-to-run. Model biases are starting to show themselves a bit I believe. GFS seems to be too strong squashing energy with the northern stream. I am curious about one thing with the ensembles. What is causing the misses on the individual members? Is it squashing the energy too? If so, it's a great look to have at this lead time. Climo is working for us...cold air appears to be there...some blocking...overrunning is classic with no worries about cutters or miller A's that are too wrapped up...maybe not as much of a NW trend as the days approach because of the setup???

Setup looks good...Not to worried at this pt about a NW trend...

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GeorgiaGirl · Dec 28, 2016

Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs

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Seen this story plenty of times, and I know how it ends if there is precip at all from it.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2016

ARCC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4006#msg4006 date=1482965311]
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs

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Hmmm, What is January 2014?
[/quote]
Winner winner

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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

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