• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg4680#msg4680 date=1483073633]
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I'll take a more suppressed look at this point . of course the cmc is garbage but always fun to look at

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Tony would love to see that over his house...LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
 
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg4680#msg4680 date=1483073633]
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That looks like it's close to Accu35's neck of the woods
[/quote] yeah it's close lol, heck I'll take snow, ice , sleet, freezing rain at this point. Love it all
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
Click to expand...
Actually I believe the strung out, longer overrunning scenario is better for you. A more consolidated system will wrap up and try to cut, messing you up with A lot more WAA

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
Click to expand...
We don't want consolidated that would be a cutter

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4675#msg4675 date=1483073285]
Well, have fun anyone outside ATL or CAE.  I retire from this threat.
Click to expand...
Lol...I wouldn't yet.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk


[/quote]

I've been following this stuff long enough to know when it's time to close the curtain down here.
 
weatherfide link said:
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
Click to expand...
18z has 14/21 members with snowfall in Atlanta...that's pretty good 8-10 days out

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
weatherfide link said:
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
Click to expand...
I disagree. there have been plenty of ensemble members that show wintry weather around atlanta .it's way to early for all you georgia folks to be throwing in the Towel

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough. 
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4682#msg4682 date=1483073725]
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
still trying to figure out why anyone would want a true low in this setup vs a prolonged overrunning event . we saw great examples at 12z today of the issues caused by a true low . give me a 24 hour overrunning event over a gulf low all day everyday

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Shawn link said:
ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough.
Click to expand...
Are you including all of North GA ?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4702#msg4702 date=1483074849]
ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough.
Click to expand...
Are you including all of North GA ?
[/quote]

Is ATL North GA?  I consider them about the same when it comes to CAE SC... but I don't live around there or whatever.  Just notice they generally get screwed like we do over this way with overruning/;low tracks :p
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
00z gefs says

5dfa99ff43ff2f70aaefb528a2157cc3.gif


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
wow, give me that run all day
 
i must be looking at the wrong GEFS...mine look more like a turd in a punch bowl...majority are an Apps runner

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
If ANYTHING, I would think North Carolina folks would want the first wave to get sheared out (as long as there is a second wave). It would allow for the second wave to come in clean with cold in place and for there to be a better chance at winter weather.

Normally an actual low forming would be GOOD...but in this transient pattern there's too much risk of it being too strong and there being WAA. An overrunning event is the best chance here at something.
 
Frogge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4708#msg4708 date=1483075442]
00z gefs says

5dfa99ff43ff2f70aaefb528a2157cc3.gif


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Bi-polar and will flip with the next run
[/quote]
it's been as consistent as anything . what's it gonna flip to?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
If the first wave comes in just a bit weak and the second wave is torn up, which is most likely to happen, this is much more of an Alabama/Mississippi/Tennessee/maybe far north Georgia event and west from there.

There needs to be better blocking for us to want a low pressure and the better blocking isn't there.
 
tellicowx link said:
i must be looking at the wrong GEFS...mine look more like a turd in a punch bowl...majority are an Apps runner

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
your in carolina right?
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Frogge link=topic=60.msg4710#msg4710 date=1483075887]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4708#msg4708 date=1483075442]
00z gefs says

5dfa99ff43ff2f70aaefb528a2157cc3.gif


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Bi-polar and will flip with the next run
[/quote]
it's been as consistent as anything . what's it gonna flip to?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4696#msg4696 date=1483074307]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4682#msg4682 date=1483073725]
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
still trying to figure out why anyone would want a true low in this setup vs a prolonged overrunning event . we saw great examples at 12z today of the issues caused by a true low . give me a 24 hour overrunning event over a gulf low all day everyday

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
If there will be a true low, it may just be a southern slider and not a true Miller A. If it was going to be a Miller A there would be stronger WAA if that's what you're worried about. I like Gulf lows cause they can bring thunder snow and a lot more moisture. The low may not even go into the Gulf, it may just slide along the Gulf coast keeping the warm nose far enough away to were WAA will not take over.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
I'm guessing a lot of the individual members are more hits for areas west of the Apps than the eastern areas.  :eyeroll:
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

1475ed2463ae93e2f54622646ce9df2f.jpg


e55e80f25b1d611f0010b8d53ec05e73.jpg


.71 right over my house...I give that a great chance to verify

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
SimeonNC link said:
I'm guessing a lot of the individual members are more hits for areas west of the Apps than the eastern areas.  :eyeroll:
Click to expand...
yes lots of hits west of the apps

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
tellicowx link said:
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top