• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2017 Discussion

18z GFS run is a race against the high and the low. If the low comes in while the high moves east we're in business for snow. Yes, we've seen this plenty of times before. The frontal boundary is still there and the potential of a low coming up at the end of the FB.
28c2362081e6453927c4459f7a3a0260.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
This is the 18z DGEX, looks similar as the 18z GFS. It also has the FB with energy coming up. This is an indication that a low could form at the end of the FB in the northwestern Gulf. Also, the cold air is being pushed to the southeast.
33220742cb6204b184762aa9f280282b.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=60.msg4009#msg4009 date=1482965766]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4006#msg4006 date=1482965311]
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hmmm, What is January 2014?
[/quote]
Winner winner

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

That's the look your probably want from the gfs right now. At that time period. I think everything looking good at the moment.
 
this is a great look this far out...i can think of several events that started out in the beginning looking just like this.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg3984#msg3984 date=1482964280]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3968#msg3968 date=1482961469]
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

December-28-29-1935-NC-Snowmap.png
Click to expand...

Atlanta got a severe ZR from this 12/28-9/1935 storm and a second one just 3-4 days later!
[/quote]

Thanks for the input Larry! Wow, that sucks lol. Yeah, I've noticed a lot of great NC winter storms have ended up as significant ZR events in Atlanta, I'm curious what the proportions are?
[/quote]

YW. Yeah, a decent % of major NC winter storms were either major IP or major ZR in the ATL-AHN corridor including 1/1988 (4" of mainly IP), 1/2000 (major ZR), 2/1979 (4" of mainly IP), 3/25/1971 (major ZR in spring), 12/28-9/1935 (major ZR).
 
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
 
This is the forecast for Decatur I just got from the weather channel. I would cash out for winter if it came true.
c5774bcc3ad4a51b3c9f4d820fefd310.png
4c41c43c7f2852808798e7b45b3e11cd.png
7af1e681c6b1c8e8fc59b972dabe26fe.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
HartselleWeather link said:
This is the forecast for Decatur I just got from the weather channel. I would cash out for winter if it came true.
c5774bcc3ad4a51b3c9f4d820fefd310.png
4c41c43c7f2852808798e7b45b3e11cd.png
7af1e681c6b1c8e8fc59b972dabe26fe.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
HAHA!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Man if that first wave moves a little east, then we in business. I'll be in a sweet spot
 
gefs is slower moving the block out which is good as the Op has been rushing it

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Mmm Northern Stream dominant progressive GFS.  How I love it so.
 
15 / 20 GEFS members from 18z with Wintry weather into this area.. so if I were in Upstate SC or NC I would be feeling a bit optimistic about now.
 
Been out of the loop the last couple of days, but looks like there is still potential for a winter storm late next week.
 
For the umpteenth time, the EPS squashes a fantasy land SE US ridge as we get inside day 10... Take the EPS & GEFS @ your own risk beyond Day 11-12... Wash, rinse, repeat.

output_KcoQRo.gif


The -PNA & -NAO bias has been nothing to sneeze at even on the ECMWF. We've essentially trended closer to 2013/14-2014/15, but you won't hear any complaints out of me. Granted, the north pacific blocking isn't quite as poleward as it was during those years & at least for this threat we'll have a modest amount of North Atlantic blocking, which may be enough to allow this to become more of a hybrid miller A-B event...

ecmwf_pna_bias-1024x512.png


ecmwf_nao_bias-1024x512.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top