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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3529#msg3529 date=1482794376]
[quote author=Jon link=topic=60.msg3518#msg3518 date=1482793589]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3505#msg3505 date=1482792239]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Blocking.


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[/quote]

It's hard to put to much stock in 10 day modeled blocking, which will likely end up being the 3rd false start of the season.
[/quote]
based on what?

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[/quote]

I base it on the following:

1) Seasonal tendency for a -PNA
2) Seasonal tendency for a +NAO
3) Seasonal tendency for a SER
4) Annual, recurring tendency of models to overdo blocking and the subsequent cold push in the LR
5) Several false starts at blocking so far this season
6) Unfavorable background state

I'd stack those chips up against an 8-10 day model prog any day of the week.

But don't get me wrong, I hope it's right this time.  But until it works into shorter leads, the wise course is to be skeptical, IMO.
 
accu35 link said:
To good to be true, next.
Click to expand...

It's just one run, there's always gonna be ups and downs regarding a "storm" down the road, so it's not gonna show widespread SN/IP/ZR every run. The idea of a pattern change is still there.
 
Hey, at least the NAO is starting to trend neg. it should be slightly neg. on the 29th-30th. PNA not so good, we need that jet to buckle for the big snows. AO is starting to trend neg. as well which is good news if we want snow. Where's the polar vortex when you need it. Lol.

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Weeklies look good but issue is they initialized with a date of 1/17...have a feeling data may be a issue, very odd, but assuming only the dates are incorrect:

Weeklies say forget about the 12z EPS

Day 7-14: blocking over the top, ridinging in central us, cold east.

Day 11-18: -EPO ridge forms, good signal for east coast nor'easter

Day 14-21: repeat of day 11-18, except stout -EPO/+PNA.

Day 18-25: repeat day 14-21



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The run-to-run variability in the operational models just depicts how fickle the current and upcoming pattern is. Verbatim, the GEFS isn't horrible for something beyond January 5th, but with a big trough centered near the midwest &/or Rockies, they'll probably be a Great Lakes cutter or two before anything meaningful winter wx wise happens here...
 
Still can't figure out why some people wanna see the Barney colours over the southeast = dry cold, suppression city. We just need the cold to be nearby for either a wave to tap into or over running when the relaxation happens. The 18z Gefs actually looks a little better in the LR and the mean snowfall is progressively getting better each run so far, especially for the upper and western regions. The initial push was a little farther west, but the timeframe still moved forward...so I see no reason to panic lol.

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who blew up the weeklies?????

Hopefully they will be re-run . Something went to hell

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SD link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3505#msg3505 date=1482792239]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
I somewhat agree but there is enough reason to believe something like what's showing up will happen. Obviously all blocking is questionable past day 0

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[/quote]past day 0?  :eek: ;)
 
Storm5 link said:
who blew up the weeklies?????

Hopefully they will be re-run . Something went to hell

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Click to expand...

Ryan is re-running them.
 
Relatively speaking our issue wrt missing out on wintry wx is rarely due to too much suppression, especially in a NINA winter... Perhaps during NINO winters this is the case esp closer to the TN valley, but then again although our temperatures are BN in NINOs, most of the air masses are continental polar leading to a plethora of marginal chances of wintry wx. Our problems during NINA are usually due to a lack of cold air coupled with a storm track directed well to our northwest, extreme suppression (as was observed during 2013-14) superimposed onto a cold ENSO event (particularly later in the winter when the SE US ridge tends to intensify & gain latitude) &/or favorable sub-seasonal forcing (MJO event, CCKW instigating the subtropical jet in W hem) is the only way we really have a fighting chance to get much of anything... I just hope we score sometime in January because most of the large-scale signaling points to a warm or even very warm February in the SE US with a very active storm track across the TN and OH valley. Given the general setup, severe wx may also become a major concern across Dixie Alley during Feb...
 
tellicowx link said:
Still can't figure out why some people wanna see the Barney colours over the southeast = dry cold, suppression city. We just need the cold to be nearby for either a wave to tap into or over running when the relaxation happens. The 18z Gefs actually looks a little better in the LR and the mean snowfall is progressively getting better each run so far, especially for the upper and western regions. The initial push was a little farther west, but the timeframe still moved forward...so I see no reason to panic lol.

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Click to expand...
The SER that people freak out over don't realize that we can actually get snow in that pattern...no overwhelming cold, just right and perfect for overrunning.


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Jon link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg3541#msg3541 date=1482797162]
Still can't figure out why some people wanna see the Barney colours over the southeast = dry cold, suppression city. We just need the cold to be nearby for either a wave to tap into or over running when the relaxation happens. The 18z Gefs actually looks a little better in the LR and the mean snowfall is progressively getting better each run so far, especially for the upper and western regions. The initial push was a little farther west, but the timeframe still moved forward...so I see no reason to panic lol.

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Click to expand...
The SER that people freak out over don't realize that we can actually get snow in that pattern...no overwhelming cold, just right and perfect for overrunning.


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[/quote]

But, but, its not purple, green, and blue.  It must be a "torch!"
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Relatively speaking our issue wrt missing out on wintry wx is rarely due to too much suppression, especially in a NINA winter... Perhaps during NINO winters this is the case esp closer to the TN valley, but then again although our temperatures are BN in NINOs, most of the air masses are continental polar leading to a plethora of marginal chances of wintry wx. Our problems during NINA are usually due to a lack of cold air coupled with a storm track directed well to our northwest, extreme suppression (as was observed during 2013-14) superimposed onto a cold ENSO event (particularly later in the winter when the SE US ridge tends to intensify & gain latitude) &/or favorable sub-seasonal forcing (MJO event, CCKW instigating the subtropical jet in W hem) is the only way we really have a fighting chance to get much of anything... I just hope we score sometime in January because most of the large-scale signaling points to a warm or even very warm February in the SE US with a very active storm track across the TN and OH valley. Given the general setup, severe wx may also become a major concern across Dixie Alley during Feb...
Click to expand...
The storm track so far this winter has definitely been an issue here, even the highest peaks of the Smokies have seen little in the way of wintry wx. So far I'm running +3.1 temp wise for the month and figure to end up in the +5 range.

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packfan98 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3543#msg3543 date=1482797472]
who blew up the weeklies?????

Hopefully they will be re-run . Something went to hell

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Click to expand...

Ryan is re-running them.
[/quote]
Haha nice , unless they come in worse than the previous run

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=60.msg3545#msg3545 date=1482797668]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3543#msg3543 date=1482797472]
who blew up the weeklies?????

Hopefully they will be re-run . Something went to hell

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Ryan is re-running them.
[/quote]
Haha nice , unless they come in worse than the previous run

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[/quote]
SMH!


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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3548#msg3548 date=1482797849]
Relatively speaking our issue wrt missing out on wintry wx is rarely due to too much suppression, especially in a NINA winter... Perhaps during NINO winters this is the case esp closer to the TN valley, but then again although our temperatures are BN in NINOs, most of the air masses are continental polar leading to a plethora of marginal chances of wintry wx. Our problems during NINA are usually due to a lack of cold air coupled with a storm track directed well to our northwest, extreme suppression (as was observed during 2013-14) superimposed onto a cold ENSO event (particularly later in the winter when the SE US ridge tends to intensify & gain latitude) &/or favorable sub-seasonal forcing (MJO event, CCKW instigating the subtropical jet in W hem) is the only way we really have a fighting chance to get much of anything... I just hope we score sometime in January because most of the large-scale signaling points to a warm or even very warm February in the SE US with a very active storm track across the TN and OH valley. Given the general setup, severe wx may also become a major concern across Dixie Alley during Feb...
Click to expand...
The storm track so far this winter has definitely been an issue here, even the highest peaks of the Smokies have seen little in the way of wintry wx. So far I'm running +3.1 temp wise for the month and figure to end up in the +5 range.

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[/quote]

Yeah that doesn't surprise me, this month will end up above average in much of the southeastern US... Even if Jan & Feb end up busting, at least the climo in the mtns is still ok thru most of March... Again, I also wouldn't be shocked to see the canonical lower MS-TN-OH valley storm track to become more prevalent in February & March, there's typically a lot more variance in low pressure tracks earlier in the winter during NINAs w/ more storms passing to the north over the midwest & upper great lakes thru December and January.
 
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