Stormlover
Member
Just go to 10 1/2 or 11 days and it is here in BamaCary_Snow95 link said:
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95 link said:
I just wish they would trim the model down to 240 hours at the very most. It's a waste of hard-disk, bandwidth, and processing power. A weekly system might suite them better on the new model they are coming out with in the next year or two.
I remember when I was first learning to look at models, I would take anything past 300 as gospel and wonder why everyone always laughed at me. It's very bad for new weather fans to have it public!
Stormlover
Member
Shawn link said:
I just wish they would trim the model down to 240 hours at the very most. It's a waste of hard-disk, bandwidth, and processing power. A weekly system might suite them better on the new model they are coming out with in the next year or two.
I remember when I was first learning to look at models, I would take anything past 300 as gospel and wonder why everyone always laughed at me. It's very bad for new weather fans to have it public!
[/quote]If you don't like it, don't look at it. But many of us do like to look past 240. Nothing magical about 240 hours as the limit to look at.
Stormlover link said:
I just wish they would trim the model down to 240 hours at the very most. It's a waste of hard-disk, bandwidth, and processing power. A weekly system might suite them better on the new model they are coming out with in the next year or two.
I remember when I was first learning to look at models, I would take anything past 300 as gospel and wonder why everyone always laughed at me. It's very bad for new weather fans to have it public!
[/quote]If you don't like it, don't look at it. But many of us do like to look past 240. Nothing magical about 240 hours as the limit to look at.
[/quote]
Imagery starts spreading across social media as gospel along with fake weather services forecasting blizzards based on shoddy accumulation maps from one run. In the Winter I get asked quite a few times a week if we are still on for a snow storm in 2 weeks from older people.
Most of us on forums can look at it and know it's "lala land", but there are many out there that take advantage of it to get website traffic.
Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
Are you talking about the initialization date of 1/17 that Jon mentioned or something else? Do you think they look good for the SE?
[/quote]
I was referring to the time stamp issue but the re-run looked good to me through mid January with blocking overtop then things start to move again ( assuming they move over the next 10 days lol)
looks like a pattern we can score in but again it's a pattern that IMO would leave some cashing in and others pissed off . You know how fickle arctic fronts stalling in the region with overrunning can be .......heartbreak
I'm with Eric on February going to heck . So I would like to see someone score before mid January. Could end up being the best window we have all winter
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GaWx link said:
Are you talking about the initialization date of 1/17 that Jon mentioned or something else? Do you think they look good for the SE?
[/quote]
I was referring to the time stamp issue but the re-run looked good to me through mid January with blocking overtop then things start to move again ( assuming they move over the next 10 days lol)
looks like a pattern we can score in but again it's a pattern that IMO would leave some cashing in and others pissed off . You know how fickle arctic fronts stalling in the region with overrunning can be .......heartbreak
I'm with Eric on February going to heck . So I would like to see someone score before mid January. Could end up being the best window we have all winter
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Shawn link said:
I just wish they would trim the model down to 240 hours at the very most. It's a waste of hard-disk, bandwidth, and processing power. A weekly system might suite them better on the new model they are coming out with in the next year or two.
I remember when I was first learning to look at models, I would take anything past 300 as gospel and wonder why everyone always laughed at me. It's very bad for new weather fans to have it public!
[/quote]If you don't like it, don't look at it. But many of us do like to look past 240. Nothing magical about 240 hours as the limit to look at.
[/quote]
Imagery starts spreading across social media as gospel along with fake weather services forecasting blizzards based on shoddy accumulation maps from one run. In the Winter I get asked quite a few times a week if we are still on for a snow storm in 2 weeks from older people.
Most of us on forums can look at it and know it's "lala land", but there are many out there that take advantage of it to get website traffic.
[/quote]
Ahhh man, I can't stand click bait forecasts or outlooks. The media hypes things up, even when it comes to a storm that is being forecasted. This is why I became an amateur, that way I won't depend on the media.
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Jon
Member
GaWx link said:
Are you talking about the initialization date of 1/17 that Jon mentioned or something else? Do you think they look good for the SE?
[/quote]
They were re-run by Ryan at wxbell and reposted.
They look good for the SE, blocking is there that the 12z EPS lost, so we would consider the 12z EPS the outlier wrt the "ridge bridge" and blocking days 10-15. A ridge moves in mid month but no one is really cold (ie. Out west having all the fun), it just looks meh across the entire conus. Then a +PNA/-EPO combo starts back end of Jan and a look at a true +PNA.
We stay cold thru Jan 15, possibly the best run this winter. We'll see what it says on Thursday....but the most important thing to see is the 12z EPS getting proved wrong trying to pump negative heights and ruin our block.
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Brent
Member
is it spring yet after looking at the GFS... Lol
I'm throwing out the 0z GFS run, it just doesn't look reasonable and with no consistent runs, there ain't no way I'm buying the 0z run from today. Strong blocking sure enough with that LP amplification.
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Loop the anomalies, it's like a bloodbath on that map, with all the red on it!
yeah I'm not buying the oz GFS tonight. I think tomorrow our winter storm will show back upaccu35 link said:
[/quote]
By the looks of the 0z, yes our winter weather event could show up again. The rain does change over to heavy snow for the MNTS of GA and probably TN/NC boarder. I still believe that there will be some type of winter weather between the 5th-7th cause the consistency of winter weather is there, the consistency of a storm is there. The track of the LP is what is being complicated right now.
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yeah I'm not buying the oz GFS tonight. I think tomorrow our winter storm will show back upNorthGAWinterWx link said:
[/quote]
By the looks of the 0z, yes our winter weather event could show up again. The rain does change over to heavy snow for the MNTS of GA and probably TN/NC boarder. I still believe that there will be some type of winter weather between the 5th-7th cause the consistency of winter weather is there, the consistency of a storm is there. The track of the LP is what is being complicated right now.
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[/quote]
I told a family member earlier I like the 5-8th time-frame for a first real shot even here in SC. I think something is being sniffed out to an extent. I also think too many are putting too much stock into a light red "se ridge" and thinking it means gloom and doom. I want the -NAO to hang on as long as it can and a little blocking over the top and we all from Texas to NC have a chance to get something Wintry. Likely in my area, sleet/mix/ZR is the most likely scenario, but who knows. Your area of GA is much more likely to get some snow.
yeah I'm not buying the oz GFS tonight. I think tomorrow our winter storm will show back upShawn link said:
[/quote]
By the looks of the 0z, yes our winter weather event could show up again. The rain does change over to heavy snow for the MNTS of GA and probably TN/NC boarder. I still believe that there will be some type of winter weather between the 5th-7th cause the consistency of winter weather is there, the consistency of a storm is there. The track of the LP is what is being complicated right now.
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[/quote]
I told a family member earlier I like the 5-8th time-frame for a first real shot even here in SC. I think something is being sniffed out to an extent. I also think too many are putting too much stock into a light red "se ridge" and thinking it means gloom and doom. I want the -NAO to hang on as long as it can and a little blocking over the top and we all from Texas to NC have a chance to get something Wintry. Likely in my area, sleet/mix/ZR is the most likely scenario, but who knows. Your area of GA is much more likely to get some snow.
[/quote]
The southeastern ridge actually can be good for snow. The LP just needs to be in the right area (just along the coast) and there needs to be an Arctic high to the north to allow deep cold air to be filtered in. What I mean by the southeastern ridge can be good for snow? Cause it will allow warm rich moist air to be pulled up to the low. This would mean good snow for the NW and western side of low of where the deep cold air will be. I agree, I think we do have a shot a winter weather during that time period. Will it be a major winter event? Too early to tell but it's possible.
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Storm5
Member
00z eps was much improved vs 12z
06z gfs has back to back threats . nice set of overnight runs between ops and ensembles
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06z gfs has back to back threats . nice set of overnight runs between ops and ensembles
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Jon
Member
Many ensembles show two chances within that time period as well. May be the same wave but seems like the Jan 7-11 period is looking goodStorm5 link said:
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whatalife
Moderator
I also like what I see w/the runs last night. Blocking looks good w/two possible waves.Storm5 link said:
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