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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

eps is all in between day 8-10. that's when 90 percebt of the mean falls this run

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With overrunning, one thing that can always help CAD areas of North GA is the development of an in-situ wedge, which keeps us colder longer, so we don't have to worry about a changeover to rain as much as those to our west.
 
Shawn link said:
control of eps is a devastating ice storm for areas like mine.  not quite cold enough for snow.. but that 32F is right through here.
Click to expand...

Can you post a map of where the 32F line is?
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

CummingWx link said:
With overrunning, one thing that can always help CAD areas of North GA is the development of an in-situ wedge, which keeps us colder longer, so we don't have to worry about a changeover to rain as much as those to our west.
Click to expand...
with this setup the changeover will be from rain to something frozen . as Shane mentioned with the cold push many would change to snow for a few hours regardless of what happens prior . since we are not dealing with a big low changing over to rain wouldn't  be that big of a concern

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CummingWx link said:
With overrunning, one thing that can always help CAD areas of North GA is the development of an in-situ wedge, which keeps us colder longer, so we don't have to worry about a changeover to rain as much as those to our west.
Click to expand...

Don't think this will have much CAD, in situ or True CAD.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3940#msg3940 date=1482957288]
control of eps is a devastating ice storm for areas like mine.  not quite cold enough for snow.. but that 32F is right through here.
Click to expand...

Can you post a map of where the 32F line is?
[/quote]

It dances all around.
 
CummingWx link said:
With overrunning, one thing that can always help CAD areas of North GA is the development of an in-situ wedge, which keeps us colder longer, so we don't have to worry about a changeover to rain as much as those to our west.
Click to expand...
True, it also depends on how strong the WAA is and the CAD. If that 2nd wave verifies per 12z GFS far northwestern  GA would remain all frozen. ATL, north of ATL and northeast of ATL would change over to rain then changing to snow as the deeper colder air settles in. Ice, then snow on top is bad news for roadways. 

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there is so much that can wrong between now and next Thursday when this starts back in texas. Makes me sick thinking of all the ways we can screw this up while watching the mid Atlantic cash in .

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Storm5 link said:
there is so much that can wrong between now and next Thursday when this starts back in texas. Makes me sick thinking of all the ways we can screw this up while watching the mid Atlantic cash in .

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LOL! What could possibly go wrong


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Worked all night just woke up, and missed about 7pages of fun lol. I'm really interested in the first wave, has overrunning written all over it. Prob setting up good for second wave
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3956#msg3956 date=1482959194]
there is so much that can wrong between now and next Thursday when this starts back in texas. Makes me sick thinking of all the ways we can screw this up while watching the mid Atlantic cash in .

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Click to expand...
LOL! What could possibly go wrong


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[/quote]
for starters , waking up next weekend and realizing that we live in the SE with a wet brown ground

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I know the GFS shows 2 waves, CMC shows a wave and Euro shows one, all could turn into one big wave as we get closer. I seen that happen many times before, not saying this will happen that way.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg3957#msg3957 date=1482959420]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3956#msg3956 date=1482959194]
there is so much that can wrong between now and next Thursday when this starts back in texas. Makes me sick thinking of all the ways we can screw this up while watching the mid Atlantic cash in .

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Click to expand...
LOL! What could possibly go wrong


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[/quote]
for starters , waking up next weekend and realizing that we live in the SE with a wet brown ground

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[/quote]
Can't say I've ever had that happen to me...Oh wait never mind...Happens all to often RRRRR.


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e171715d940b89be79ec14494bc719e6.jpg


coast to coast

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The Euro control goes below freezing at RDU on Jan 8th and doesn't get back above freezing the rest of the run. It would also be close to breaking some of the records for the 9th and 10th but probably a little too warm.
 
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

December 29 1935 US surface maps NOAA 20CRV2
1935122912.gif

1935123000.gif


December 26-29 1935 Northern hemisphere z500
compday.65.191.40.95.362.14.38.47.gif


December-28-29-1935-NC-Snowmap.png



December 22-23 1935 US surface maps NOAA 20CRV2
1935122218.gif

1935122306.gif


December 21-23 Northern Hemisphere z500 NOAA 20CRV2c
compday.65.191.40.95.362.14.37.23.gif


December-22-23-1935-NC-Snowmap.png
 
JLL1973 link said:
how did the euro look for the northern mississippi and midsouth region
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Decent hit 3-4 for the northern quarter of the state....a 1-3 stripe about 50 miles south of that then a trace to 1 about 75 miles south of that. Looks like there are some mixing issues across most of Ms as total QPF is .5-.6 but max snow is only 4 inches.
 
Here we gooo! 18z GFS is starting to roll off the hot press

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Webberweather53 link said:
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)
Click to expand...

Lord have mercy this would be amazing
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3968#msg3968 date=1482961469]
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)
Click to expand...

Lord have mercy this would be amazing
[/quote]
Ikr! It would be like having December 2010 & then other storm a week later to go w/ it. Having only those 2 storms in a winter would be amazing, but the winter of 1935-36 was a loooonnnggg ways from being over even after December lol
 
Hey storm5 what paid site you getting your euro maps from. Thinking about signing up for the winter.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

HartselleWeather link said:
Hey storm5 what paid site you getting your euro maps from. Thinking about signing up for the winter.
Click to expand...
wxbell . Can't be beat . They a free trial period as well

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Well 18z should be interesting here on future frames.
 
Shawn link said:
Well 18z should be interesting here on future frames.
Click to expand...
Let me guess, nothing like 12z , or warmer!? :(
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3977#msg3977 date=1482963582]
Well 18z should be interesting here on future frames.
Click to expand...
Let me guess, nothing like 12z , or warmer!? :(
[/quote]
Cant tell yet but the cold push might be stronger.. energy dropping in on the West.. Guess we'll see soon enough.

snowing in mexico and texas by 186.
 
Looks like I missed out on some real "fun" on the 12z GFS while I was out and about. Too bad that run is close to 10 days out...
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3978#msg3978 date=1482963881]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3977#msg3977 date=1482963582]
Well 18z should be interesting here on future frames.
Click to expand...
Let me guess, nothing like 12z , or warmer!? :(
[/quote]
Cant tell yet but the cold push might be stronger.. energy dropping in on the West.. Guess we'll see soon enough.

snowing in mexico and texas by 186.
[/quote]
Always a good start! Might end up a CAE special!
 
Webberweather53 link said:
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

December-28-29-1935-NC-Snowmap.png
Click to expand...

Atlanta got a severe ZR from this 12/28-9/1935 storm and a second one just 3-4 days later!
 
yeah cold push is stronger so far, system trying to get going back in texas.  might not be a fail run by any means.
 
Shawn link said:
yeah cold push is stronger so far, system trying to get going back in texas.  might not be a fail run by any means.
Click to expand...
Yeah should be another day 11 storm

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Shawn link said:
yeah cold push is stronger so far, system trying to get going back in texas.  might not be a fail run by any means.
Click to expand...

Suppression wouldn't be a bad thing this early.
 
yep wave 1 squashed worse than the 12z... energy looks diff on the second wave, may be slower.  still might have something.. we'll see.
 
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