Cary_Snow95
Member
:dancingsanta:
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Per the generally cold biased GFS (the just released 12Z run), the only time on the entire run most of the ATL area gets down to near or just below 30F is 12/31 when it gets down to 29F. This is nothing like the 0Z run, which gave them 18F for the coldest. The coldest on the 6Z run was similar to the 12Z at 28. The warmest day of the run is 1/3 for many in the SE. Of course, any details past about day 7-8 are largely just for entertainment as we know.
Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
a major winter storm over the course of a two day period .
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it's hard not to get excited about what the models keep showing . the 12z gfs is a perfect example of what is most likely to happen with a big front moving into the region and stalling out with a huge gradient from NW to SE with overrunning precip . So this while atlanta didn't see any huge changes in regards to temps this run verbatim, the areas NW of the front sawGaWx link said:
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Storm5
Member
12z gefs supports a much colder pattern
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From nyd onward? Or I think there is a big warm up before the possible wintry system 6-8th?Storm5 link said:
whatalife
Moderator
Save the date 5th-8th...LOL
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Ok! Pool party booked!whatalife link said:
tennessee storm
Member
Ok! Pool party booked!Tarheel1 link said:
[/quote]wouldn't doubt it... I bring my Bermuda shorts to the party... lol we see when this time frame draws closer
olhausen
Member
January 2017 Discussion
Hit 72 at lunch today which is 2 degrees below the all time daily high record for my area.
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Hit 72 at lunch today which is 2 degrees below the all time daily high record for my area.
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-16 in December in TN is pretty impressive. Especially in a low elevation area. Olhausen, it looks like your area will be around 35 degrees AN tonight !
Brent
Member
SoutheastRidge link said:
1989 is the last time Dallas went below zero. 3 historic cold snaps in a 6 year stretch(Dec 1983 Jan 1985 Dec 1989). It was a simplier time lol. Just doesn't happen anymore. :-[
tennessee storm
Member
12z euro= MEH... PRETTY MUCH 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
What's more impressive about that chart is the warm year of 1952... Jan, May, June, and July all set monthly records for warmth as well as an all-time record high. That year must have been down-right unbearable.olhausen link said:Hit 72 at lunch today which is 2 degrees below the all time daily high record for my area.
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Of course it's meh, it only goes out to 240! You need the models that go out to 10-15 days! That's where all our winter storms and cold resides! The Euro only went out to the 3rd or 4th! The money shots in the 5-8th timeframe!tennessee storm link said:12z euro= MEH... PRETTY MUCH
Storm5
Member
I'll take the H5 look the 12z euro all day. it's MUCH improvedtennessee storm link said:12z euro= MEH... PRETTY MUCH
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Storm5
Member
damn, I see the 12z eps I really starting to get on the blocking train. Another model set that's much improved over the last 3-4 days
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Re: January 2017 Discussion
a major winter storm over the course of a two day period .
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[/quote]
Good point about areas to the NW although I think the GFS is rushing things even for there, especially considering its recent bad cold bias. I have no reason to buy into what it is showing even for areas to the NW. The 12Z EPS, the still King of the 11-15, is warmer and is near normal for those areas for January 5th-8th vs the colder than normal 12Z GFS. I'm at least waiting for the EPS to join the GFS and also go colder than normal for those areas to the NW of ATL to get excited about the chance for the overrunning based winter storms for those areas that the GFS shows.
I keep hoping for a 2013-14 type of turnaround for the bulk of January and that hope certainly remains. I'm keeping in mind the sudden shift in the models that ironically started with that 18Z GEFS run one day last week that had near normal instead of warmer than normal for the first four days of January. Unfortunately for that prediction, the SE ridge has fought back once again and the model consensus again, including the 12Z GFS/GEFS has the SE warmer than normal for those first four days of January. The models, especially GFS suite, keep teasing the SE with cold only to have to backaway as we get closer. The GFS suite has been having a clearly significant cold bias of late and I think that shouldn't be taken lightly. Regardless, I am keeping in mind that the neutral negative ENSO raises ATL and vicinity's chance for a major ZR and/or IP sometime this winter to about three times the chance of other ENSO.
it's hard not to get excited about what the models keep showing . the 12z gfs is a perfect example of what is most likely to happen with a big front moving into the region and stalling out with a huge gradient from NW to SE with overrunning precip . So this while atlanta didn't see any huge changes in regards to temps this run verbatim, the areas NW of the front sawStorm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Good point about areas to the NW although I think the GFS is rushing things even for there, especially considering its recent bad cold bias. I have no reason to buy into what it is showing even for areas to the NW. The 12Z EPS, the still King of the 11-15, is warmer and is near normal for those areas for January 5th-8th vs the colder than normal 12Z GFS. I'm at least waiting for the EPS to join the GFS and also go colder than normal for those areas to the NW of ATL to get excited about the chance for the overrunning based winter storms for those areas that the GFS shows.
I keep hoping for a 2013-14 type of turnaround for the bulk of January and that hope certainly remains. I'm keeping in mind the sudden shift in the models that ironically started with that 18Z GEFS run one day last week that had near normal instead of warmer than normal for the first four days of January. Unfortunately for that prediction, the SE ridge has fought back once again and the model consensus again, including the 12Z GFS/GEFS has the SE warmer than normal for those first four days of January. The models, especially GFS suite, keep teasing the SE with cold only to have to backaway as we get closer. The GFS suite has been having a clearly significant cold bias of late and I think that shouldn't be taken lightly. Regardless, I am keeping in mind that the neutral negative ENSO raises ATL and vicinity's chance for a major ZR and/or IP sometime this winter to about three times the chance of other ENSO.
Re: January 2017 Discussion
a major winter storm over the course of a two day period .
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Good point about areas to the NW although I think the GFS is rushing things even for there, especially considering its recent bad cold bias. I have no reason to buy into what it is showing even for areas to the NW. The 12Z EPS, the still King of the 11-15, is warmer and is near normal for those areas for January 5th-8th vs the colder than normal 12Z GFS. I'm at least waiting for the EPS to join the GFS and also go colder than normal for those areas to the NW of ATL to get excited about the chance for the overrunning based winter storms for those areas that the GFS shows.
I keep hoping for a 2013-14 type of turnaround for the bulk of January and that hope certainly remains. I'm keeping in mind the sudden shift in the models that ironically started with that 18Z GEFS run one day last week that had near normal instead of warmer than normal for the first four days of January. Unfortunately for that prediction, the SE ridge has fought back once again and the model consensus again, including the 12Z GFS/GEFS has the SE warmer than normal for those first four days of January. The models, especially GFS suite, keep teasing the SE with cold only to have to backaway as we get closer.
[/quote]
Yep look at last week, the CAD region was supposed to escape the torch with 50s and wedge, well I'm at 65 after high of 68! The overblown cold, is the way of this winter so far!
it's hard not to get excited about what the models keep showing . the 12z gfs is a perfect example of what is most likely to happen with a big front moving into the region and stalling out with a huge gradient from NW to SE with overrunning precip . So this while atlanta didn't see any huge changes in regards to temps this run verbatim, the areas NW of the front sawGaWx link said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Good point about areas to the NW although I think the GFS is rushing things even for there, especially considering its recent bad cold bias. I have no reason to buy into what it is showing even for areas to the NW. The 12Z EPS, the still King of the 11-15, is warmer and is near normal for those areas for January 5th-8th vs the colder than normal 12Z GFS. I'm at least waiting for the EPS to join the GFS and also go colder than normal for those areas to the NW of ATL to get excited about the chance for the overrunning based winter storms for those areas that the GFS shows.
I keep hoping for a 2013-14 type of turnaround for the bulk of January and that hope certainly remains. I'm keeping in mind the sudden shift in the models that ironically started with that 18Z GEFS run one day last week that had near normal instead of warmer than normal for the first four days of January. Unfortunately for that prediction, the SE ridge has fought back once again and the model consensus again, including the 12Z GFS/GEFS has the SE warmer than normal for those first four days of January. The models, especially GFS suite, keep teasing the SE with cold only to have to backaway as we get closer.
[/quote]
Yep look at last week, the CAD region was supposed to escape the torch with 50s and wedge, well I'm at 65 after high of 68! The overblown cold, is the way of this winter so far!