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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Remember, we are now entering our better months for Wintry weather.  Anything we could have gotten in December would have been a good bonus.  Happy to see a bit of support for blocking going into January.  Just wish we could get a good look within 3 days.  This 192 Hour + thing isn't working too well.
 
one day the para will be right and we will score one of these winter storms it keeps throwing out
# 12z para

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18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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if your looking for a wintry threat the first week of January seems to be a window as all guidance has shown a wintry threat that week in some for or fashion

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The 18z 7-9th threat looks legit! Been showing up for awhile! Just a few tweaks, and we are Rollin
 
Storm5 link said:
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...

Fine with me. A lot of times we have had good snow storms just a few days after a big warm up. It was like that in January 2000. I actually think the big swings can be good for bigger storms.
 
Storm5 link said:
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
That bathtub is gonna slosh so hard!
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
Trash it! #GFSismeaningless


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR
9c8b56fc28e9233c904aaf0b7d774e8c.jpg


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Click to expand...
What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
That would be a negative

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Brick Tamland link said:
You can't depend on the models past five days. All the indicies and patterns that people looked at from the past to give us a good chance at winter storms don't seem to apply here anymore. As long as temps stay normal and we still get some shots of below normal then we still have a chance at getting a winter storm. That's about all you can say for winter here. As long as we don't go way above normal and things stay active, we should have just as good of a chance as any other time to get a storm here. I think we score at least one good one in January.
Click to expand...
I will say that I didn't think we'd torch on Xmas when the models hinted at it last week. They backed off a bit and we thought CAD would be more robust. Now we are back to full on torch. I'm not sure what to believe but the models may have had this right. So maybe in turn the GFS goes toward the colder solution again. Who knows.


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Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3301#msg3301 date=1482634452]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
Click to expand...
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.
[/quote]
You may flirt with 70° on Tuesday but probably nothing prolonged.


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I'm really getting hyped up around the first week of January, GFS has been honking at possible storm, and very cold air. Oz GFS tonight was amazing with storm signal and very cold temps. Even tho it's 288 and beyond it been advertising for a while now. :wreath:
 
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