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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.
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I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South! :(
[/quote]

I've got a forecast high of 70 the next two days and my average high is 46 so I'm definitely torching the next few days.
 
Storm5 link said:
18z para has single digit lows  January 2nd

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WOW, agreement with those two ? Lol.
 
Storm5 link said:
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
 
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3314#msg3314 date=1482643319]
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Click to expand...

Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
[/quote]
Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg3321#msg3321 date=1482651444]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3314#msg3314 date=1482643319]
merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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Click to expand...

Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F). Yeah, not as cold but cold.

This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
[/quote]
Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
[/quote] yeah, not as cold but still cold. Models will shuffle around because it's the LR. I still feel pretty good for second week of January
 
Webberweather53 link said:
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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[/quote]
Lol! He saw the 0z and jumped all over the cold!! Now it's like, sike!!
 
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
 
And as long as it's below freezing and there is a chance of winter storms, then why does it matter if it's not in the teens or single digits?
 
Brick Tamland link said:
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
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I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who  knows.. may torch ; some longer... just saying
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

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[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...


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tennessee storm link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3332#msg3332 date=1482675163]
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
Click to expand...
I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who  knows.. may torch ; some longer... just saying
[/quote]

One or two days doesn't make it a torch. That's a typical winter here. And we can have a couple of days at 70 and next week have a snow storm. That also happens quite often here.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

six years ago today I experienced my first white Christmas in alabama  .....it was amazing .

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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3330#msg3330 date=1482674388]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...

Screen-Shot-2016-12-25-at-8.34.44-AM.png
Click to expand...
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...


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[/quote]
All he wants for Christmas is a forecast that's right, or a new bathtub, his is broken!
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3343#msg3343 date=1482684503]
merry Christmas from the 12z gfs

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Click to expand...
Holy SMH!


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[/quote]
Classic track there! 2 waves! Felize Navidad Amigos!!
That 5-7th threat has been around for quite a few runs now!!!
 
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