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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg3484#msg3484 date=1482780586]
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
Click to expand...

You sure about that? Looks to me like RDU is below normal 12/30-1/1 then next shot of cold is moving into the region on 1/5
[/quote]
Don't feed the trolls! He also said it wouldn't rain before January, back in November!
 
I agree GaWx, the GFS has been consistent with that, showing the ideal time frame.

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SD link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg3484#msg3484 date=1482780586]
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
Click to expand...

You sure about that? Looks to me like RDU is below normal 12/30-1/1 then next shot of cold is moving into the region on 1/5
[/quote]

We do get a small colder shot on the Euro, but the really cold air does stay back in the plains into the upper midwest and great lakes through day 10.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Just going over the 12z Euro, at hr. 240 it looks similar as today's 12z GFS. The Euro doesn't have a LP at hr 240 while the GFS does over northern AL at hr 216.  Definitely timing issues between the two models. (That's normal with it being more than 5-7 days out). What I'm seeing, we could be dealing with two LPs, one will bring all rain, that low could just be the app runner or a lake cutter and another low coming out from the Plains or possibly coming up from the panhandle of FL. The time frame I'd think this could occur is from 4th-7th. 

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JHS link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3487#msg3487 date=1482781640]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg3484#msg3484 date=1482780586]
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
Click to expand...

You sure about that? Looks to me like RDU is below normal 12/30-1/1 then next shot of cold is moving into the region on 1/5
[/quote]

We do get a small colder shot on the Euro, but the really cold air does stay back in the plains into the upper midwest and great lakes through day 10.
[/quote]

I was under the impression that the cold would settle in towards the East Coast with blocking over top. 
 
Comparison of the 12z GFS and Euro. GFS hr 216, Euro hr 240.
1818754dc700fb272d5ee3e6659866c0.jpg


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JHS link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3487#msg3487 date=1482781640]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg3484#msg3484 date=1482780586]
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
Click to expand...

You sure about that? Looks to me like RDU is below normal 12/30-1/1 then next shot of cold is moving into the region on 1/5
[/quote]

We do get a small colder shot on the Euro, but the really cold air does stay back in the plains into the upper midwest and great lakes through day 10.
[/quote]
and is moving southeast

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c5475081d4eb7fdbfe2d5ae8bfca8f54.jpg


12z EPS mean for day 12, only the areas along the gulf see a moderation thru day 15

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Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
 
Cary_Snow95 link said:
If you guys want a laugh go on the other forum. You could give them all a billion dollars and they would still somehow complain
Click to expand...

LOL are they seeing the same models we're seeing?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
 
Cary_Snow95 link said:
If you guys want a laugh go on the other forum. You could give them all a billion dollars and they would still somehow complain
Click to expand...
What other forum? American Wx?

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Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I think uncle Mack is here, too, but not as Uncle Mack.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=60.msg3498#msg3498 date=1482788311]
If you guys want a laugh go on the other forum. You could give them all a billion dollars and they would still somehow complain
Click to expand...
What other forum? American Wx?

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[/quote]

yes
 
January 2017 Discussion

Nothing too exciting till after day 9 right?


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Looks like 18z likely won't be as good with respect to 500mb. ;/
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I think uncle Mack is here, too, but not as Uncle Mack.
[/quote]

Tarheel -1, I believe!
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Preach!!! Time out!?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=60.msg3500#msg3500 date=1482789866]
there comes the change
814temp.new.gif
Click to expand...
Goodness, is it ever going to get cold in FL this winter ? I have a feeling South FL won't get below 50 all winter !
[/quote]
Well it is Florida


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Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Blocking.


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My god at the 18z GFS! If you want cold and snow, don't even look! The SE ridge is like JB on juice!! There's like 1 day under 50 for the ATL, and it's about day 13! The pushback on the cold arriving, it's happening! Luckily, it's the 18z, so we toss
 
There's gonna be pushback.  Think back to Jan '14.  The cold tried coming several times in December and tried more in Jan.  Finally, mid Jan it broke in and all hell broke loose.  It's coming...just when is the question. 


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I'm paying attention to the LP that comes in over the four corners at hr 192. Yes, the GFS does show it weakening, but that LP will be important to keep an eye on.

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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3505#msg3505 date=1482792239]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Preach!!! Time out!?
[/quote]

Time in. :)
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
I somewhat agree but there is enough reason to believe something like what's showing up will happen. Obviously all blocking is questionable past day 0

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Tarheel1 link said:
My god at the 18z GFS! If you want cold and snow, don't even look! The SE ridge is like JB on juice!! There's like 1 day under 50 for the ATL, and it's about day 13! The pushback on the cold arriving, it's happening! Luckily, it's the 18z, so we toss
Click to expand...
It seems like the 0z GFS runs are the best

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How about precip guys? Although we have had twin we are still in a serious drought. (At least in N GA)
 
IMO, the upper portions of the southeast and western sections look to stand the best chances during this period. The orientation of the western ridge dumps the cold more out west this time and the 500mb flow along the southern portions originates off the  warmer pacific, moderating the cold push.

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Jon link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3505#msg3505 date=1482792239]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Blocking.


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[/quote]

It's hard to put to much stock in 10 day modeled blocking, which will likely end up being the 3rd false start of the season.
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Jon link=topic=60.msg3518#msg3518 date=1482793589]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3505#msg3505 date=1482792239]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=60.msg3504#msg3504 date=1482792066]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3501#msg3501 date=1482790369]
Bless their heart on the other forum! It's like a dysfunctional family over there!
Click to expand...

It really gets nuts when crazy uncle Mack shows up! :)
[/quote]

I'm still trying to figure out why this D10 cold pattern is so much more credible than the usual D10+ cold patterns we see winter after winter that either don't pan out or greatly moderate by D0. But the only evidence that anyone has been able to show so far is the latest couple of D10 runs.
[/quote]
Blocking.


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[/quote]

It's hard to put to much stock in 10 day modeled blocking, which will likely end up being the 3rd false start of the season.
[/quote]
based on what?

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GainesvilleWX link said:
How about precip guys? Although we have had twin we are still in a serious drought. (At least in N GA)
Click to expand...
If there will be any winter wx 5th-7th it would most likely be ZR cause of the southeastern ridge. Not unless a LP comes up from the east of the southeastern states (Miller A) and allows the colder air to come in on the NW and western side of low and we need a cold high to allow deep cold air to be filtered in.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=60.msg3526#msg3526 date=1482794182]
How about precip guys? Although we have had twin we are still in a serious drought. (At least in N GA)
Click to expand...
If there will be any winter wx 5th-7th it would most likely be ZR cause of the southeastern ridge. Not unless a LP comes up from the east of the southeastern states (Miller A) and allows the colder air to come in on the NW and western side of low and we need a cold high to allow deep cold air to be filtered in.

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[/quote] Yeah i think if we get anything this winter it will be ice and not snow, unless the pattern changes.
 
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