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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

GaWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3351#msg3351 date=1482688714]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg3348#msg3348 date=1482685614]
Per the generally cold biased GFS (the just released 12Z run), the only time on the entire run most of the ATL area gets down to near or just below 30F is 12/31. This is nothing like the 0Z run, which gave them 18F for the coldest. The coldest on the 6Z run was similar to the 12Z at 28. The warmest day of the run is 1/3 for many in the SE. Of course, any details past about day 7-8 are largely just for entertainment as we know.
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it's hard not to get excited about what the models keep showing . the 12z gfs is a perfect example of what is most likely to happen with a big front moving into the region and stalling out with a huge gradient from NW to SE with overrunning precip . So this while atlanta didn't see any huge changes in regards to temps this run verbatim,  the  areas NW of the front saw
55b15fbc523851a005a95bd47cd092f6.jpg
a major winter storm over the course of a two day period .

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[/quote]

Good point about areas to the NW although I think the GFS is rushing things even for there, especially considering its recent bad cold bias. I have no reason to buy into what it is showing even for areas to the NW. The 12Z EPS, the still King of the 11-15, is warmer and is near normal for those areas for January 5th-8th vs the colder than normal 12Z GFS. I'm at least waiting for the EPS to join the GFS and also go colder than normal for those areas to the NW of ATL to get excited about the chance for the overrunning based winter storms for those areas that the GFS shows.

I keep hoping for a 2013-14 type of turnaround for the bulk of January and that hope certainly remains. I'm keeping in mind the sudden shift in the models that ironically started with that 18Z GEFS run one day last week that had near normal instead of warmer than normal for the first four days of January. Unfortunately for that prediction, the SE ridge has fought back once again and the model consensus again, including the 12Z GFS/GEFS has the SE warmer than normal for those first four days of January. The models, especially GFS suite, keep teasing the SE with cold only to have to backaway as we get closer. The GFS suite has been having a clearly significant cold bias of late and I think that shouldn't be taken lightly. Regardless, I am keeping in mind that the neutral negative ENSO raises ATL and vicinity's chance for a major ZR and/or IP sometime this winter to about three times the chance of other ENSO.
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the eps has cooled a good bit in the 8-15 day period over the last few days. Obviously that time period rolls forward each run a little. the thing to me is just last week the ensembles including the eps were showing a horrible pattern. now all of a sudden , the are going crazy with blocking. Today's eps goes nuts with blocking. Obviously it's not perfect but it's a far cry from just 5 days ago.

I for sure don't believe the crazy cold the gfs is dumping . but I do believe we will be closer to normal with periodic cold blasts . Nothing sustained but with the the blocking over top IF it verifies will trap a piece of the PV and send a few cold shots here and there.

could be MUCH worse like we were thinking last week

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Storm5,
Indeed, things no longer look bleak like they did about a week ago! What you're saying sounds reasonable. Right now, I'd take a near normal January and run. The odds of a 2013-4 complete turnaround to cold January that are too low to expect anything like that.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=60.msg3363#msg3363 date=1482700296]
12z euro= MEH... PRETTY MUCH :(
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Of course it's meh, it only goes out to 240! You need the models that go out to 10-15 days! That's where all our winter storms and cold resides! The Euro only went out to the 3rd or 4th! The money shots in the 5-8th timeframe!
[/quote] look for it to get pushed out further on later runs... still think we have more work to do even at the h5 pattern... though were taking baby steps....
 
Omg 2 winter storms within a day apart on 18 GFS. Loving the 5th  onward.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
only if ......
6be224bf07be306d5b5d28b806ee1343.jpg


hahah holy hell
1bbe4628edcd736b3095352972a2239f.jpg


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Click to expand...

When is that for and what are the chances of something even close to that happening?
 
January 2017 Discussion

CummingWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3383#msg3383 date=1482708945]
only if ......
6be224bf07be306d5b5d28b806ee1343.jpg


hahah holy hell
1bbe4628edcd736b3095352972a2239f.jpg


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When is that for and what are the chances of something even close to that happening?
[/quote]
b4aca66823ecd4f28dfad86e21dfbb1d.jpg

Still a little out there but it's fun to look at...



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And just like that things look up again. Which is why I really don't get the doom and gloom from a couple of folks. It's worse at the other board, though. People don't seem to get we can get warm here one week and have snow the next. That's a typical winter here. We don't get frigid temps for days and a great pattern that lasts all month. We have ups and downs, and wiindows of opportunities. The first week or so of January looks like a good opportunity.  But it seems like some think we need temps in the teens and a great pattern that lasts all winter or there's no chance at getting anything.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

CummingWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3383#msg3383 date=1482708945]
only if ......
6be224bf07be306d5b5d28b806ee1343.jpg


hahah holy hell
1bbe4628edcd736b3095352972a2239f.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

When is that for and what are the chances of something even close to that happening?
[/quote]

The 18Z GFS has a major snow at ATL 1/4-5 (near 4"), the kind of snow they get on average about every four years. This is way, way out there and is mainly for entertainment. Besides, the GFS has had a bad cold bias recently. Regardless, at some point this winter, the odds favor a ZR/IP to at least threaten your area based on neutral negative ENSO and there is about a 50% chance of an actual major ZR or IP at ATL, itself.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
And just like that things look up again. Which is why I really don't get the doom and gloom from a couple of folks. It's worse at the other board, though. People don't seem to get we can get warm here one week and have snow the next. That's a typical winter here. We don't get frigid temps for days and a great pattern that lasts all month. We have ups and downs, and wiindows of opportunities. The first week or so of January looks like a good opportunity.  But it seems like some think we need temps in the teens and a great pattern that lasts all winter or there's no chance at getting anything.
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I agree with you brick, what good is it going to do getting all doom and gloom. The excitement of just having a chance of snow is enough to keep me optimistic.
 
I'm personally getting sick & tired of the Day 10-12+ EPS being treated as gospel by some esp over North America. I'm getting pretty sick & tired of seeing a quasi-permanent trough over the Rockies & NW Canada that fails to materialize.
 
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