Storm5
Member
it's all about location in a pattern like this were the front will battle ridging .Cary_Snow95 link said:
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
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VegasEagle
Member
Check please! :snowingchristmas: :snowflake:Stormlover link said:GFS says fun times ahead
This is a situation where my area around Columbia, SC or Atlanta, GA could see rain while Newberry, SC or Cherokee, GA could get rocked with Wintry precipitation. 
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
there are some insane individual 00z gefs member, too bad it's all a dream at this point
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there are some insane individual 00z gefs member, too bad it's all a dream at this point
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Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
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we are getting excited over a gfs op run and a gefs run we are all at a disadvantage doing that lolStarburst link said:This is a situation where my area around Columbia, SC or Atlanta, GA could see rain while Newberry, SC or Cherokee, GA could get rocked with Wintry precipitation.
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
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we are getting excited over a gfs op run and a gefs run we are all at a disadvantage doing that lolStorm5 link said:[quote author=Starburst link=topic=60.msg3427#msg3427 date=1482730968]
This is a situation where my area around Columbia, SC or Atlanta, GA could see rain while Newberry, SC or Cherokee, GA could get rocked with Wintry precipitation.
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
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[/quote]
If we can get to 5 or 6 days out with the Euro & GFS (and ensembles) on board.. we will finally get to see what this site can handle. I'm looking forward to it!
The last big snow we got here in my area, was forecast about 5 or 6 days out. The bigger systems will usually get sniffed out a bit early. As long as we have the cold shot, anything is possible!
Cary_Snow95
Member
Well I'm in central nc so cad is hopeful
Storm5
Member
we are getting excited over a gfs op run and a gefs run we are all at a disadvantage doing that lolStarburst link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3429#msg3429 date=1482731244]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=60.msg3427#msg3427 date=1482730968]
This is a situation where my area around Columbia, SC or Atlanta, GA could see rain while Newberry, SC or Cherokee, GA could get rocked with Wintry precipitation.
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
If we can get to 5 or 6 days out with the Euro & GFS (and ensembles) on board.. we will finally get to see what this site can handle. I'm looking forward to it!
The last big snow we got here in my area, was forecast about 5 or 6 days out. The bigger systems will usually get sniffed out a bit early. As long as we have the cold shot, anything is possible!
[/quote]
agreed. the good news is at least we have something to watch. thing about it is the blocking and PV piece getting trapped starts to get rolling late this week into the weekend. so we will know in a couple days if this idea really has legs or not
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we are getting excited over a gfs op run and a gefs run we are all at a disadvantage doing that lolStorm5 link said:[quote author=Starburst link=topic=60.msg3430#msg3430 date=1482731389]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3429#msg3429 date=1482731244]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=60.msg3427#msg3427 date=1482730968]
This is a situation where my area around Columbia, SC or Atlanta, GA could see rain while Newberry, SC or Cherokee, GA could get rocked with Wintry precipitation.
Those of us to the further South and East are at quite a disadvantage. Storm summed it up great a few posts back.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
If we can get to 5 or 6 days out with the Euro & GFS (and ensembles) on board.. we will finally get to see what this site can handle. I'm looking forward to it!
The last big snow we got here in my area, was forecast about 5 or 6 days out. The bigger systems will usually get sniffed out a bit early. As long as we have the cold shot, anything is possible!
[/quote]
agreed. the good news is at least we have something to watch. thing about it is the blocking and PV piece getting trapped starts to get rolling late this week into the weekend. so we will know in a couple days if this idea really has legs or not
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[/quote]
I've been a bit busy as of late. Do we have the Euro/Eps showing some blocking (pv pushed/locked in?) along with the GFS?
Only thing everyone needs to keep a eye on is how much this system drifts back to the NW as we get closer. Now it may stay where it is but there is still time for it to trend nw then back more southeast. I'm just saying I would bet even if this system verifies which I think it has a chance the real deal is going to be in the details of just how far the front gets south and east. I can see some tense modeling swings the next 3-4 days trying to pin it down. :snowflake:
Between 216 and 240 something odd happens with the Euro with 500mb heights. I'll just ignore it. Maybe someone else can figure out what is going on off the coast of Florida. Looks like a coastal / noreaster happening to me.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Starburst link said:
It's just a piece of a cut-off ULL that is currently sitting off the coast of CA that merges with an oncoming trough, and it eventually gets stuck as the initial trough lifts out & a rex block forms over New England, traps it underneath, and then it begins to go bonkers as it starts to phase & negatively tilt wrt the next oncoming trough. Yea I wouldnt pay it much mind atm, but holy crap that's a huge west based -NAO by day 8-8.5...
Webberweather53 link said:
It's just a piece of a cut-off ULL that is currently sitting off the coast of CA that merges with an oncoming trough, and it eventually gets stuck as the initial trough lifts out & a rex block forms over New England, traps it underneath, and then it begins to go bonkers as it starts to phase & negatively tilt wrt the next oncoming trough. Yea I wouldnt pay it much mind atm, but holy crap that's a huge west based -NAO by day 8-8.5...
[/quote]
Whew, I'm not as crazy as I thought. That could definitely help SE Winter fans out.
For N GA: Mainly for entertainment since it is still 10-12 days out on a GFS run but also for documentation, the 0Z GFS gives Atlanta just about down to the airport and ENE to Athens a significant ZR, a significant Tony storm (sleet) in the Marietta-Cumming-Gainesville-GSP corridor, and a major snow to Rome, GA, northward. This year does favor a major ZR/IP over major SN for Atlanta-Athens per ENSO analogs if there is going to be a major winter storm there at some point this winter.
The 0Z Euro shows nothing like that setting up for then per its 240 hour map, which doesn't at all look like the 0Z GFS.
The 0Z Euro shows nothing like that setting up for then per its 240 hour map, which doesn't at all look like the 0Z GFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GaWx link said:
Yeah, I'm personally getting tired of seeing the EPS produce a semi-permanent trough over the Rockies and SE US ridge which fails to materialize. The GEFS has been doing this as well to an extent although it's been considerably better wrt recognizing when the SER breaks down and the trough over the west comes east.
whatalife
Moderator
Things look like they may be heating up...
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Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
yeah the 00z eps completely flipped colder towards the gefs
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yeah the 00z eps completely flipped colder towards the gefs
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Storm5
Member
Webberweather53 link said:
Yeah, I'm personally getting tired of seeing the EPS produce a semi-permanent trough over the Rockies and SE US ridge which fails to materialize. The GEFS has been doing this as well to an extent although it's been considerably better wrt recognizing when the SER breaks down and the trough over the west comes east.
[/quote]
that was big shift in the EPS. As you have been mentioning , the 10-12 day eps seems to have been on repeat with the trough over the rockies and holding onto the the SER. The question for me becomes , how stable will the pattern be IF it pays out as advertised. The EPO looks like it's going to at least hang on for a few weeks. The -NAO seems kinda transient which we have become numb to at this point .
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