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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Re: January 2017 Discussion

12z gefs
d0244cca2aa843759dd62c9e4d6071cc.jpg



coast to coast cold . the bathtub is sloshing !
79de056a28c484a1cd26fa34376ec275.jpg

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Jon link said:
Back to back storms on the 00z and 6z. Fantasy range but it should make some believers in the pattern. This is all it's going to take to generate 100 posts on the other board, smh. I may start posting here more!

Agree Webber, my thoughts were the same hat the EPS would correct.


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Nice to see you here Jon!
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z gefs
d0244cca2aa843759dd62c9e4d6071cc.jpg



coast to coast cold . the bathtub is sloshing !
79de056a28c484a1cd26fa34376ec275.jpg

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Click to expand...
God, if that could only be right!!!!! I'll get in the bathtub too!
 
Nice to see the GFS attempting to bridge the ridge over the far N Atlantic going into early January, in concert with the NE Pacific blocking, the US and much of south-central Canada would be absolutely frigid as a huge PV gets stuck on our side of the world... Of course like many here, although we have favorable antecedent tropical forcing signals for a -NAO (w/ tropical pacific forcing preceding -NAO surge ~ 1-2 weeks in advance), I don't quite yet trust it given how fickle this pattern is and unfavorable ENSO/QBO/Solar & AMO/THC bgd in addition to interannual-interdecadal persistence. Of course, with the Northeastern Pacific blocking alone, even with a transitory -NAO, we would still get at least a few transient arctic/continental polar air masses with an opportunity or two for an overrunning event. Considering that the current ENSO/QBO base state is usually about as unfavorable as it gets wrt the probability of BN temperatures in the SE US in mid-late winter, I'll take what I can get.
 
Not far off from a wintry mix for New Years Day across western NC and into the foothills. Verbatim, goes to all rain but worth watching temps and precip timing over the next few days. Maybe some Piedmont counties too.
 
Jon link said:
Back to back storms on the 00z and 6z. Fantasy range but it should make some believers in the pattern. This is all it's going to take to generate 100 posts on the other board, smh. I may start posting here more!

Agree Webber, my thoughts were the same hat the EPS would correct.


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Is this Mr. Wall or an imposter?
 
Certainly can't remember too many times where I've seen every major model suite go for the rare coast-to-coast cold look during the 10-15...
 
12z Canadian with cold pouring into the USA at the run's end.  Would continue South and East likely:

gem_T2m_namer_41.png
 
Shawn link said:
12z Canadian with cold pouring into the USA at the run's end.  Would continue South and East likely:

gem_T2m_namer_41.png
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yep the cmc jumped in with two feet . it's been waffling back and back forth trying to decide what to do . that run it decided

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I took a look at the 0z Euro and it has a newly formed LP at the tail end of the frontal boundary at hr. 192 but there is no cold air. The latest GFS has an app runner with cold air coming down from the NW and the rain ending as SHSN/flurries across the southern apps. To come up with my predictions, I like to use a blend of the GFS and the Euro. There will be a storm at some point in early Jan. Will it be a rain to a snow event, will it just be all rain or will there just be light SNSH/flurries as the LP pushes off to the NE? It's too early in time to determine that. But, I like what I'm seeing for early Jan.         
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=Jon link=topic=60.msg3449#msg3449 date=1482763124]
Back to back storms on the 00z and 6z. Fantasy range but it should make some believers in the pattern. This is all it's going to take to generate 100 posts on the other board, smh. I may start posting here more!

Agree Webber, my thoughts were the same hat the EPS would correct.


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Is this Mr. Wall or an imposter?
[/quote]
Dr. Wall**** just kidding. Tis I Shawn!

Thanks for all the warm welcome folks.


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The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
 
JHS link said:
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
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And we have our Debbie Downer.
 
Storm5 link said:
12z euro is all in

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Yeah, I'd call the 12Z Euro a very good run, especially compared to the 0Z Euro, which was so different from the 0Z GFS and despite the fact that the coldest 850's are not nearly as cold as the 12Z GFS' back in the northern Rockies/Plains (-28 C for Euro vs -38 C for GFS). Also, note that if one were to project from the day 10 map, one could assume that the SE's last widespread complete warmer than normal day would be January 4th with Jan 5th being a transition day cooler. That's the timeframe I'm now concentrating on because that's there the GFS has been for several runs now . Will Jan 5th hold as the start of the transition or will it slip once again? With the MJO projected to be supportive and the 0Z EPS 11-15 now colder, I'm thinking it may just hold this time.
 
JHS link said:
The Euro keeps the cold air well away from AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN right through day 10. Our turn will come in Feb if it does at all.
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You sure about that? Looks to me like RDU is below normal 12/30-1/1 then next shot of cold is moving into the region on 1/5
 
GaWx link said:
For N GA: Mainly for entertainment since it is still 10-12 days out on a GFS run but also for documentation, the 0Z GFS gives Atlanta just about down to the airport and ENE to Athens a significant ZR, a significant Tony storm (sleet) in the Marietta-Cumming-Gainesville-GSP corridor, and a major snow to Rome, GA, northward. This year does favor a major ZR/IP over major SN for Atlanta-Athens per ENSO analogs if there is going to be a major winter storm there at some point this winter.

The 0Z Euro shows nothing like that setting up for then per its 240 hour map, which doesn't at all look like the 0Z GFS.
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You know what, I generally tend to dislike sleet mainly because it doesn't accumulate fast, but I've grown to cherish any kind of winter precip I can get, even if it's sleet. BTW, my city is never mentioned. Thanks, Larry! lol
 
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