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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Re: January 2017 Discussion

Jon link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3579#msg3579 date=1482836082]
00z eps was much improved vs 12z

06z gfs has back to back threats . nice set of overnight runs between ops and ensembles

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Many ensembles show two chances within that time period as well. May be the same wave but seems like the Jan 7-11 period is looking good


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[/quote]
I agree . We a finally starting to zero in on a time frame that holds potential. I'll be surprised if someone in the SE doesn't deal with some sort of wintry weather around then. As you mentioned there are a couple of threats showing on the ensembles . With the nornal timing differences i figured it would be  the same wave however if you dig in , there are many members that support two waves similar to the 06z gfs

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Not a bad look

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png
 
meteorologist brian peters believes that there will be no chance of wintry weather in the next 16 days for the southeast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYWfe5ynWBo
 
Whoever this guy is, presumably a local tv met in your area, will be proven wrong by the end of this week. Unless he doesn't count the mountains of NC and TN part of the southeast.
 
NCSNOW link said:
Whoever this guy is, presumably a local tv met in your area, will be proven wrong by the end of this week. Unless he doesn't count the mountains of NC and TN part of the southeast.
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Looks to me even parts of Tennessee that aren't in the mountains are in play.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Lol, yeah you can't say that there won't be a chance of wintry weather in the next 16 days. There may not be wintry weather for Birmingham but that will probably change. By the way, I'll be taking a look at the 0z Euro and the 12z GFS here in a bit.

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Louis link said:
meteorologist brian peters believes that there will be no chance of wintry weather in the next 16 days for the southeast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYWfe5ynWBo
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lost some respect for him by him saying that...stupid comment
 
Storm5 link said:
uhm yeah sign me up , I'll take my chances
85ae251157d17aabddae1ad663ed5acd.jpg


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The hounds of winter are coming...LOL


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The first wave looks like it could turn out to be an I-20 snow event. The 0z Euro has something similar and colder. 540 line coming close down to I-20 with moisture just below it. Also, the 0z Euro does have the 2nd wave like the 12z GFS but it's not a cutter. The 2nd wave could have potential for winter weather as well. I hope it stays active like this all winter.

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there is a constant threat showing for next week in the guidance so why is anyone worrying about a cutter that's 12 days away. if it showed a damn blizzard it would be just as wrong .

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Not worried about a cutter storm, the run had winter storm potential and it cut. I'm excited about the potential
 
Storm5 link said:
there is a constant threat showing for next week in the guidance so why is anyone worrying about a cutter that's 12 days away. if it showed a damn blizzard it would be just as wrong .

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No worries on my side...All options are on the table...10-12 days I'm fine with that...


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So, maybe by this weekend a new threat will be open for the potential of winter weather between the 4th-6th? We've had enough constant runs showing us that somewhere in the SE there will be some type of wintry wx. If not, each southeastern state will get something during that time  (except FL). I don't think there should be a thread on it quite yet.

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I am getting a little excited now, but can't go all-in, until SD is all in! Where's he at? Dusting off the drums?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
I am getting a little excited now, but can't go all-in, until SD is all in! Where's he at? Dusting off the drums?
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trust me , he is around . you won't see him break out the drums till late week or the weekend IF things still look up

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Many members of the GEFS have Wintry weather.  In fact, few don't through day 16.  Problem is, majority of the good hits are after day 10.
 
Well if you look at the Carolinas in the pic posted by olhausen, the guy could be right about no wintry precip  (outside the mountains) for the next 16 days. Fact is I don't trust any prediction or model outside 3-5 days anyway, but it is fun to see the fantasy storms in different areas. Of course they will probably change 5 times before the date depicted
 
Every GEFS member has snow in RDU by January 10th, with half by the 6th, and although most of the wintry wx is in the fantasy range that's still impressive.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Every GEFS member has snow in RDU by January 10th, with half by the 6th, and although most of the wintry wx is in the fantasy range that's still impressive.
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Yeah the control drops 10-12" at RDU. Check please
 
I guess Peter's and the Spann gang  forgot how bad they got burned in 2014.
 
Here's the mean through day 12, not too shabby...

839ba98b52d58875d224b58c48ed590f.gif


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Webberweather53 link said:
Every GEFS member has snow in RDU by January 10th, with half by the 6th, and although most of the wintry wx is in the fantasy range that's still impressive.
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that is impressive . would like to see more eps members get on board

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