Massive improvement over the prior run. Far more wintry east of the apps. Lots of IP/ZR showing up 
Also improvement across the western SE
Also improvement across the western SE
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
NWMSGuy
Member
Any decent hits for us back west?
This definitely has been a trend on the EPS the last few runs.
olhausen
Member
Things look solid for at least some snow. Still too early to say it’s worth driving here for though.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Getting some sleet and freezing rain for my corner of the south with the 12z Euro. Less cold post front though. Need the trough to dig more.
Looks good for 7 days out. Have plenty of time to take baby steps each day to get even better.
Mahomeless
Member
Can you go further west please?
I noticed that same thing...there was a lot more "noise"/lower height arguing btwn the members with that area over BC. 00z run had a lot more higher heights...WE ALL need that to be true and drop that down the west coast and let it tumble deep SE and that could be the caboose if you will before Canada gets flooded with pac air again.
Itryatgolf
Member
More of a s/w further west if I can actually maintain its self.
Not a great trend generally for most on the SE.
Brent
Member
Feeling like this one might be legit here. And it's gonna be 11 degrees gonna stick to everything and ratios will probably be higher than the maps
For the guy responding with a question mark, this isn't a simple run to run trend comment, this is a comment about runs over the past three days and is a longer trend of much less QPF, especially across TN, MS, and AL, and far N GA.
Triplephase93
Member
Is it the low transferring the cause for lack of QPF or is it just sheared out for these areas?
W
WSW
Guest
Yeah seems to be consolidating toward more of a KY,WV/VA event.
NWMSGuy
Member
Could be wrong here but looks like the Canadian has been increasing totals with each recent runs. Around Memphis anyways.
GoDuke
Member
Yes, but…
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Need that thing to have more buckle.
That’s a lot of ice storm members. Sheesh 
packfan98
Moderator
I always hold out hope that sleet can save me from a true freezing rain Ice storm. Over half the members have something wintery. Best chance so far, especially with the cold temperatures afterwards for some staying power that will make any storm more impactful.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Do you have a shot of the 138hr west in the deep south
JLL1973
Member
people in the midsouth is losing this one quickly. gfs is pretty dry
JLL1973
Member
its still going to be cold but not as cold as modeled with no snow on the ground
NWMSGuy
Member
Guess I’m going to hold out hope until Friday mid-day runs. The cold is there we just need the moisture.
18z gfs gives hope for something frozen on the Gulf coast. My area is shown getting IP and ZR early Tuesday morning.
JLL1973
Member
unfortunatley living in the south its just hard having both the same time
Fountainguy97
Member
This is dangerously close to a big east coast storm. Initial Arctic front dries up but euro and gfs are leaving more energy behind. This trailing piece needs to dig and go neg tilt a bit sooner and you have a big one.
I hope we don't end up with this weird washed out scenario. It's possible but this is one step from a major event.
I hope we don't end up with this weird washed out scenario. It's possible but this is one step from a major event.
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Flotown
Member
dont think this is even close to being over...but who knows
This a step to the euro dig the initial northern stream trough more for areas east of the apps 
Flotown
Member
overrunning known to overperform
This is a just a few adjustments away from something big 
I have a feeling that more GEFS members are going to be showing a CAD set up this run.
Flotown
Member
think we will do better than that but hey still bout an inch especially for ypu
Natedogg25
Member
From a local met in the Birmingham market.. 
ICE NEXT WEEK? Lots of questions about the First Alert Weather Day we declared for next week regarding possible winter mischief. Both GFS/Euro guidance shows a shallow layer of frigid arctic air settling in on Monday. As this happens, moisture will start overrunning the state, as a low pressure system takes shape over the Gulf. This could bring a period of winter precipitation and the types would primarily be freezing rain or sleet. There are some big differences in data regarding timing and amount of precipitation. The highly reliable ensemble data keeps the heaviest precipitation south. I wouldn’t cancel any big plans until we get a better handle on the amount of precipitation and timing. However, know we could have impacts and it’s one of the reasons why we’ve declared another First Alert Weather day.
ICE NEXT WEEK? Lots of questions about the First Alert Weather Day we declared for next week regarding possible winter mischief. Both GFS/Euro guidance shows a shallow layer of frigid arctic air settling in on Monday. As this happens, moisture will start overrunning the state, as a low pressure system takes shape over the Gulf. This could bring a period of winter precipitation and the types would primarily be freezing rain or sleet. There are some big differences in data regarding timing and amount of precipitation. The highly reliable ensemble data keeps the heaviest precipitation south. I wouldn’t cancel any big plans until we get a better handle on the amount of precipitation and timing. However, know we could have impacts and it’s one of the reasons why we’ve declared another First Alert Weather day.Attachments
packfan98
Moderator
Pease limit the banter in this storm thread. Don’t be surprised if posts disappear occasionally that don’t add positively to the discussion. Thank you!
While western areas of the south remain favored for wintery weather, we are all still in the game at this point. If one looks at the 500mb vorticity details, it's clear that in the 4-8 day range, the big closed low associated with the impending Midwest blizzard is the main driver once it reaches eastern Canada. The vortices orbiting that newly formed TPV are driving the bulk of the run-to-run changes we're seeing and nothing can be remotely trusted until the storm passes.
Lots of shearing out on gefs members. But we’re trending the right way with the initial trough resulting in more high pressure and the front penetrating east of the apps. Just need to tweak the wave timing on it