Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[CNCsnwfan1210]

GFS with the bloomer again

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[BullCityWx]

That’s probably a high ratio snow on Wednesday

 

[Carolina Sky]

GFS with the bloomer again

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So that's from the low off the coast?

 

[ynot]

Thats about as far south as it will get.. now look for north adjustments on the globals tonight.. but how far north is the question

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I am almost 100% sure the reason that finger of snow is trending south is related to models being to weak with the TPV over the northern plains/Montana until go time, and it’s starting to translate. Remember, that moves east and suppresses the height field. So it makes sense things are going south, because it’s stronger at go time then what models have

 

[Chattownsnow]

This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol

 

[tucker]

This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol

We just need the NAM to get on board.


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[AlabamaWxWatcher]

GFS is further south in GA
View attachment 141987

I-20 corridor in Alabama could be caught off guard if this thing shifts south at the last minute. What a close call..

 

[SD]

Looks like a dud for NC. At least it will be dry if we don't get any snow. Rather have that than more rain.

Ok

 

[BullCityWx]

Roughly the footprint of the late bloomer

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

So that's from the low off the coast?

Combination of the tilted trough and the offshore low that developed st the last minute is my guess.

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[ynot]

This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol

This is true... overrunning events always do good for us.. just getting in the band is key

 

[RoddyPiper]

I am almost 100% sure the reason that finger of snow is trending south is related to models being to weak with the TPV over the northern plains/Montana until go time, and it’s starting to translate. Remember, that moves east and suppresses the height field. So it makes sense things are going south, because it’s stronger at go time then what models have View attachment 141996

What are your thoughts on this continued suppression south of the snow band over TN/AL?

 

[Arcc]

BHM and on east and south east if you want to grasp here is about the only way how we do it. Need more tilt.

 

[Storm5]

Gfs for the first time in a while tried to bring the second round of precip up through central Alabama

12z cmc steady as she goes with sleet and freezing rain

 

[Storm5]

 

[RollTide18]

Recent model trends makes me think we could have more freezing rain than I thought down this way

 

[jrips27]

CMC ticked north lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What are your thoughts on this continued suppression south of the snow band over TN/AL?

Globals have been struggling with this the last 2 days. Initializing to weak. Id say if it continues, it’s possible it continues to trend south, but the jumps overall probably slow down Quickly soon

 

[Carolina Sky]

Ok

I spoke too soon.