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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

The crazy uncle opened the freezer for all.
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Getting wintry precip east of the apps seems like an impossible task. Good thing GFS is mostly too progressive
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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So it looks like this is the first Op run of any model to bring at least a period of snow east of the mountains. I haven’t looked at the individual panels of the EPS but jt still appears there is some signals for CAD. I honestly wouldn’t write anything off with this one yet.
 
From the looks of it, all the models just shuffled the look of this system. The CMC and Euro sank the cold way further east and the GFS backed off some at 6Z. The Euro rarely changes that much in that short of a time especially at H5. Too many changes too quickly to know what is a trend or a blip.
 
Yea this one has a longways to go. I just looked at 500 vort on every op and they all are very different with the energy. The Euro Op got close. The GFs is so progressive. If Euro is right and gets tweeked a little here an there, it could be a nice hit.

500hv.conus.png
 
Think the biggest problem with this setup is the initial Cutter not escaping east to Atlantic Canada but rather towards Hudson Bay, if this was to exit or at least a big piece of it was able to exit towards Atlantic Canada, you could slow down the pattern even more and amplify the upstream pattern, along with confluence, and a better cold feed. But instead we get a messier, frontal look, because the progression of the cutter isn’t favorable. It could work out west of the mountains, but east we would need a trailing northern steam wave that digs favorably after the Arctic front moves through 2DC60915-4063-465C-974D-ECA26C91D84B.jpeg
 
Y’all know how that 3-5 window gets really floppy.. and hence my avatar.. the storm that looks like a hit and then.. poof!
 
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