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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Rooting for the euro solution. It is single digits as the last flakes fall here. Pretty wild. We don't need a massive amount of qpf. Just a couple tenths. Gfs heading that way. Let's keep it up! I'm tired of the 33-35 with light snow that doesn't stick until the last flakes. I've had 6 events of that this winter.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Think the biggest problem with this setup is the initial Cutter not escaping east to Atlantic Canada but rather towards Hudson Bay, if this was to exit or at least a big piece of it was able to exit towards Atlantic Canada, you could slow down the pattern even more and amplify the upstream pattern, along with confluence, and a better cold feed. But instead we get a messier, frontal look, because the progression of the cutter isn’t favorable. It could work out west of the mountains, but east we would need a trailing northern steam wave that digs favorably after the Arctic front moves through View attachment 141091
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I have what I’m sure is a stupid question but I keep hearing west of the mountains and east of the mountains. I’m in Atlanta. Where do we fall? I feel like it always snows west or east of us.
 
If you are in NW Atlanta, your chances of snow go up. South of metro, not so good chances usually. It really depends on the setup as it always does.

In general we get fewer chances of snow in northern-ish Georgia. With ongoing climate change and increased temps (our growing zone was recently changed to a warmer band), it becomes even harder for snow.
 
Snowgirl67 said:
I have what I’m sure is a stupid question but I keep hearing west of the mountains and east of the mountains. I’m in Atlanta. Where do we fall? I feel like it always snows west or east of us.
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Neither really, the continental divide runs right down peachtree street. We can benefit from cold from either direction, our issue is we are the furthest from the source of both directions. If it’s a CAD fueled storm, we are the last in line. If it’s cold funneled from the northwest, we are also the last in line. The only benefit we have, specifically northwest burbs is the fact that we can get some northwest flow flurries or snowshowers with some elevation increase. The east side of the metro is 600-800’ while the northwest is 900-1200’, which makes a huge difference when your temps are always marginal.
 
Less push into Texas, a little flatter, but is trying mightily to expand eastward! Changes are not done on this one. At. All.
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icon is a no go. we will see how the gfs goes but i have a bad feeling about this one. still going to be frigid tho
 
J.C. said:
Well the Icon finally brought the cold air east after holding back every run.
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It develops a gulf low, throws moisture back to the NW, but the cold is not far enough east to catch it...like Bob Uecker would say, "just a bit outside" as the pitch sails 30 feet behind the batter.
 
JLL1973 said:
looking like a good 1-2 inch storm for all of us. Luckily we will have good rates in those cold temps
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Given the cold during and after, even an inch of snow, and in all likelihood, ice, and sleet before, the impacts will be substantial and long-lasting.
 
caveat: it's the gd (gosh darn) canadian

but finally, an ops run showed us i think is the best option for us east of the apps... not a impulse streaming along the pv but moreso a longwave trough frontal thing.

notice how the pv is further north which allows this spoke to actually gain some separation. we get better lift, better tilt...

not discussing the validity of this setup. do not get excited. just happy that a model is finally showing something to work with

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Myfrotho704_ said:
I think this is pretty concerning. The UKMET goes full on western trough and gets the southeast ridge going View attachment 141130View attachment 141131
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Yes, it is very concerning. It's not moving east, either. Upper level winds are running due west to east from CA to MD at 120 hours and it's about the same at 144 hours with a slight dip over Nevada. Very weird.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Remember when the icon and UK was the outlier models in February 2021…
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Sure, it could be onto something. If the Euro moves in that direction, which it often does, then it would be more concerning to me. Otherwise, as I and others have pointed out, the models are all struggling with the mid-range and the Ukie is just another solution.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Sure, it could be onto something. If the Euro moves in that direction, which it often does, then it would be more concerning to me. Otherwise, as I and others have pointed out, the models are all struggling with the mid-range and the Ukie is just another solution.
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Wonder if will need to wait for this energy to come ashore before we know how this really plays out?
 
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