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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

This could be a decent sledding type event for north Al. Not a ton of snow, but enough sleet freeze rain to get some good sledding in. All I know is. School will canceled for the cold next week at some point. Wish I went to school these days ?
 
The Chatt area deserves some luck. In the past I remember these setups where the cold never got over monteagle mountain until the moisture was all but gone. Euro kind of depicts this and the WAA.
 
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The euro isn't as good as it once was! That is a fact. Back years ago, if you saw a system on the euro 5-7 days, almost guaranteed that was final solution, providing a few mile shifts. All other models trend towards it lol. 0z will be interesting
 
Itryatgolf said:
The euro isn't as good as it once was! That is a fact. Back years ago, if you saw a system on the euro 5-7 days, almost guaranteed that was final solution, providing a few mile shifts. All other models trend towards it lol. 0z will be interesting
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Yes, but if the Euro showed 30 inches for your backyard, you would love it.
 
Itryatgolf said:
The euro isn't as good as it once was! That is a fact. Back years ago, if you saw a system on the euro 5-7 days, almost guaranteed that was final solution, providing a few mile shifts. All other models trend towards it lol. 0z will be interesting
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Thumb through the Model Archive pages and see how many snowstorms from the EURO model output are in there versus the other models, mainly the GFS. :)
 
Don’t know why a lot of the western folks freaking out. You don’t want to powerful of a storm because, your end up with another cutter like what is going happen Friday. This is a nice 1-3 or 2-4 inch type of storm for many. With maybe a few people in a jackpot area getting 6 inches.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Thanks for this detail! Seems like the majors are not aligned at all.
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One thing that is a sure bet, Mississippi is going to get cold, really cold.

But to add some detail, here are the 5-day 500 mb vorticity products from the ICON, GFS, JMA, CMC, and EURO:

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

jma_z500_vort_us_6.png

gem_z500_vort_us_22.png

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_43.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
One thing that is a sure bet, Mississippi is going to get cold, really cold.

But to add some detail, here are the 5-day 500 mb vorticity products from the ICON, GFS, JMA, CMC, and EURO:

icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

jma_z500_vort_us_6.png

gem_z500_vort_us_22.png

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_43.png
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Really great stuff! Thanks for posting for us folks back West. Any opinion on which you think may eventually verify?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Really great stuff! Thanks for posting for us folks back West. Any opinion on which you think may eventually verify?
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I'd normally say the EMCF like most would. But, I'll go a little rogue and side with the ICON only because I like its potential for mischief beyond day five that closed ULL over the Great Lakes and the next vort max entering the Pacific NW poised to drop down the front range it seems.
 
PARSONBROWN said:
This could be a decent sledding type event for north Al. Not a ton of snow, but enough sleet freeze rain to get some good sledding in. All I know is. School will canceled for the cold next week at some point. Wish I went to school these days ?
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Yep, if you want good street sledding, you need sleet, and zr mixed in, then snow on top is ok, lol. But for the road hills you need sleet.
 
Getting wintry precip east of the apps seems like an impossible task. Good thing GFS is mostly too progressive
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 141084
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So it looks like this is the first Op run of any model to bring at least a period of snow east of the mountains. I haven’t looked at the individual panels of the EPS but jt still appears there is some signals for CAD. I honestly wouldn’t write anything off with this one yet.
 
From the looks of it, all the models just shuffled the look of this system. The CMC and Euro sank the cold way further east and the GFS backed off some at 6Z. The Euro rarely changes that much in that short of a time especially at H5. Too many changes too quickly to know what is a trend or a blip.
 
Think the biggest problem with this setup is the initial Cutter not escaping east to Atlantic Canada but rather towards Hudson Bay, if this was to exit or at least a big piece of it was able to exit towards Atlantic Canada, you could slow down the pattern even more and amplify the upstream pattern, along with confluence, and a better cold feed. But instead we get a messier, frontal look, because the progression of the cutter isn’t favorable. It could work out west of the mountains, but east we would need a trailing northern steam wave that digs favorably after the Arctic front moves through 2DC60915-4063-465C-974D-ECA26C91D84B.jpeg
 
Y’all know how that 3-5 window gets really floppy.. and hence my avatar.. the storm that looks like a hit and then.. poof!
 
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