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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

caveat: it's the gd (gosh darn) canadian

but finally, an ops run showed us i think is the best option for us east of the apps... not a impulse streaming along the pv but moreso a longwave trough frontal thing.

notice how the pv is further north which allows this spoke to actually gain some separation. we get better lift, better tilt...

not discussing the validity of this setup. do not get excited. just happy that a model is finally showing something to work with

gem_z500_vort_us_25.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think this is pretty concerning. The UKMET goes full on western trough and gets the southeast ridge going View attachment 141130View attachment 141131
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Yes, it is very concerning. It's not moving east, either. Upper level winds are running due west to east from CA to MD at 120 hours and it's about the same at 144 hours with a slight dip over Nevada. Very weird.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Remember when the icon and UK was the outlier models in February 2021…
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Sure, it could be onto something. If the Euro moves in that direction, which it often does, then it would be more concerning to me. Otherwise, as I and others have pointed out, the models are all struggling with the mid-range and the Ukie is just another solution.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Sure, it could be onto something. If the Euro moves in that direction, which it often does, then it would be more concerning to me. Otherwise, as I and others have pointed out, the models are all struggling with the mid-range and the Ukie is just another solution.
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Wonder if will need to wait for this energy to come ashore before we know how this really plays out?
 
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