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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

packfan98 said:
@metwannabe might get the deform band...
1705449600-Ekn0hNELgXs.png
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A really nice snow for DC metro.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Generally what you want to see here. As others said, this is close to a good one even for some east of the mountains.View attachment 141167
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All we want to see on modeling is a slower system/more northern stream confluence, this allows penetration of the Arctic boundary further east along with a slower storm. Just sucks though because the euro is the most favorable than most models, and this could just be it waffling to something more favorable for 1 run
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is clearly the trend we need east of the apps. We need to trend to a deeper, digging trough in the NE which turns into confluence as it lifts up. Really close call for CAD areas View attachment 141161View attachment 141156View attachment 141159View attachment 141162View attachment 141158
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Looked like the euro warmed the surface air too quickly (for the CAD areas) as the precip came in. If this look was to verify, I would expect the CAD (look) to strengthen as we get closer.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All we want to see on modeling is a slower system/more northern stream confluence, this allows penetration of the Arctic boundary further east along with a slower storm. Just sucks though because the euro is the most favorable than most models, and this could just be it waffling to something more favorable for 1 run
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Agreed. That ridging to our east off the Atlantic gives me pause. That usually takes a favorable track off the table regardless of all the other things we may have going for us.IMG_6003.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Agreed. That ridging to our east off the Atlantic gives me pause. That usually takes a favorable track off the table regardless of all the other things we may have going for us.View attachment 141168
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be careful what you wish for

the SE ridge is also what's sharpening the trough enough to get us some lift in the first place

i'm generally rooting for a taller ridge in the west so the trough has more potential to dig
 
I don't want to get caught up in the "well this model does this too fast or that model doesn't handle that thing well and so on" because that stuff gets thrown out like candy. But like I mentioned yesterday, it is true that when you have a big block, there is often a propensity for it to hang around a bit longer than models think it should. That can have downstream effects (out in time) in that it can make things appear to shift south as you close in on the event. We don't see this very much, as most of our events trend north over time. But we don't usually have big blocks up there either.

Now, I don't want to suggest that there's going to be some magical massive shift that magically makes a snowstorm occur, but if things are marginal and you only need a few slight tweaks to make it a solid wintry event, then that is probably within the realm of possibility when you have a block like this.
 
olhausen said:
For the Nashville folks.
looks like the snow would start falling late Sunday night with temps in the lower 20s and dropping quickly. snow continues to fall into late Monday afternoon making this a long duration snow event.

Gfs without kuchera
Gfs with kuchera
View attachment 141146
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I’m thinking of driving up from Birmingham with the kids Sunday afternoon since they’re out of school Monday and I’m off work. Do you think staying somewhere around Nashville would be good, @olhausen? Thanks!!
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't want to get caught up in the "well this model does this too fast or that model doesn't handle that thing well and so on" because that stuff gets thrown out like candy. But like I mentioned yesterday, it is true that when you have a big block, there is often a propensity for it to hang around a bit longer than models think it should. That can have downstream effects (out in time) in that it can make things appear to shift south as you close in on the event. We don't see this very much, as most of our events trend north over time. But we don't usually have big blocks up there either.

Now, I don't want to suggest that there's going to be some magical massive shift that magically makes a snowstorm occur, but if things are marginal and you only need a few slight tweaks to make it a solid wintry event, then that is probably within the realm of possibility when you have a block like this.
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Tldr
 
SD said:
Tldr
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Rain Cold said:

Misc - Winter Weather Support Group

Cad isn't cold enough Model x doesn't handle cad well BINGO!!!
southernwx.com

thx
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Health and Well Being

Gonna use my knowledge for good in this one. I want to help people be their best physically and mentally and encourage others to add their thoughts..... Cold water stimulus Going to start my first tip with my morning ritual. I get asked all the time by prospective SEALS if they should take cold...
southernwx.com
Thnx
 
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