I'll gladly take a 93 dumped 19in here. 96 was good too had a lot of sleet on top of a good foot of snow best sleding of my life but hurt like hell lol93, ATL folks would be happy
I'll gladly take a 93 dumped 19in here. 96 was good too had a lot of sleet on top of a good foot of snow best sleding of my life but hurt like hell lol93, ATL folks would be happy
Ohh I don't know I'm just going off a post earlier that said 96 was a top analog on chips. This is a west of apps storm imo. Except for areas further east who may see redevelopment. Even then it will be very light little to no accumulation.Well if its 96 or 93 mountains and foothills in NC. SC. and VA and just east of there to I-85 will get a lot of snow BUT no run shows the mountains or foothills getting in on the fun. Closer to 85 then yes. maybe a semi -Carolina Crusher
Have you also noticed at H5 that the models are retro-grading the features a bit. As you, and others have pointed out, things are not as progressive as the progressive models want them to be...this is FAR from set in stone IMO00z GEFS definitely trending like the op the past couple runs.
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Welcome sir. First message I see. Here’s to hoping there’s plenty moreGfs and gefs clearly trended toward the euro soulution. Still massive changes happening at 500mb even with the euro. I think cad favored areas have a chance at a winter storm
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Yes. There are some pretty drastic changes occurring as energy is moving onshore. There are a ton of moving parts with this one - highly possible we still see a drastic change one way or another.Have you also noticed at H5 that the models are retro-grading the features a bit. As you, and others have pointed out, things are not as progressive as the progressive models want them to be...this is FAR from set in stone IMO
You can see the wedgeThis is a woof trend. View attachment 141346
Not necessarily the wedge, but we’re strengthening the prior northern stream trough and sinking it south, which is allowing the antecedent airmass to become much colder and drier prior to the stormYou can see the wedge
Fro, weenie question and mods move to other thread if need be, but why the hole over ATL?Euro was so close to something bigger wrt the energy
Because the Apps are blocking the original northern stream energy, the coastal low doesn't phase/mature until it gets further in latitude around NC.Fro, weenie question and mods move to other thread if need be, but why the hole over ATL?
So we need it to phrase early...gotcha...late bloomersBecause the Apps are blocking the original northern stream energy, the coastal low doesn't phase/mature until it gets further in latitude around NC.
Yeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.So we need it to phrase early...gotcha...late bloomers
We needed the Euro to pull a CMC by digging out westYeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.
The 18z Euro Control did that, the 00z Euro unfortunately said it was a blip.
The CMC runs into the same problem the Euro does. It doesn't matter how much the wave digs if the low in the NW stops the wave from maturing.We needed the Euro to pull a CMC by digging out west
Gotcha...thank youThe CMC runs into the same problem the Euro does. It doesn't matter how much the wave digs if the low in the NW stops the wave from maturing.
Looks like all models have increased snow amounts overnightSnow Totals on the 06Z GFS have increased since the 0Z run. View attachment 141355
Trending more south and east?Looks like all models have increased snow amounts overnight