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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Well if its 96 or 93 mountains and foothills in NC. SC. and VA and just east of there to I-85 will get a lot of snow BUT no run shows the mountains or foothills getting in on the fun. Closer to 85 then yes. maybe a semi -Carolina Crusher
 
Pilotwx said:
Well if its 96 or 93 mountains and foothills in NC. SC. and VA and just east of there to I-85 will get a lot of snow BUT no run shows the mountains or foothills getting in on the fun. Closer to 85 then yes. maybe a semi -Carolina Crusher
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Ohh I don't know I'm just going off a post earlier that said 96 was a top analog on chips. This is a west of apps storm imo. Except for areas further east who may see redevelopment. Even then it will be very light little to no accumulation.
 
1300m said:
00z GEFS definitely trending like the op the past couple runs.

View attachment 141327

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Have you also noticed at H5 that the models are retro-grading the features a bit. As you, and others have pointed out, things are not as progressive as the progressive models want them to be...this is FAR from set in stone IMO
 
hky1894 said:
Gfs and gefs clearly trended toward the euro soulution. Still massive changes happening at 500mb even with the euro. I think cad favored areas have a chance at a winter storm

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Welcome sir. First message I see. Here’s to hoping there’s plenty more
 
I am honestly hedging my bets on this....but, new UKIE shows it very well...GFS tries, and the
EURO and EPS and somewhat the GEFS is also seeing this...I "think" this is our "caboose" and should end the pattern (temp) after driving down the west and rolling into the east. I think this one will be the one to really watch for as the pattern starts to breakdown after that.


Screenshot 2024-01-10 at 11.50.54 PM.pngScreenshot 2024-01-10 at 11.51.03 PM.png
 
deltadog03 said:
Have you also noticed at H5 that the models are retro-grading the features a bit. As you, and others have pointed out, things are not as progressive as the progressive models want them to be...this is FAR from set in stone IMO
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Yes. There are some pretty drastic changes occurring as energy is moving onshore. There are a ton of moving parts with this one - highly possible we still see a drastic change one way or another.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh78_trend.gif
 
SnowwxAtl said:
So we need it to phrase early...gotcha...late bloomers
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Yeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.

The 18z Euro Control did that, the 00z Euro unfortunately said it was a blip.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, once the NW ridge gets replaced with a pesky low, the wave can't tilt negative and and mature. The models want to sharpen the wave around the Ohio Valley and form a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic, leaving the energy in the south to shear out. If we can get more ridging out west, the energy-centered by the Gulf can mature, and more quickly develop a coastal low.

The 18z Euro Control did that, the 00z Euro unfortunately said it was a blip.
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We needed the Euro to pull a CMC by digging out west
 
Yeah. We’re improving the northern stream for cold out ahead, but stuff out west is getting discombobulated by the shortwave entering B.C.
 
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