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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

That’s a lot of ice storm members. Sheesh View attachment 141196View attachment 141197
I always hold out hope that sleet can save me from a true freezing rain Ice storm. Over half the members have something wintery. Best chance so far, especially with the cold temperatures afterwards for some staying power that will make any storm more impactful.
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This is dangerously close to a big east coast storm. Initial Arctic front dries up but euro and gfs are leaving more energy behind. This trailing piece needs to dig and go neg tilt a bit sooner and you have a big one.

I hope we don't end up with this weird washed out scenario. It's possible but this is one step from a major event.

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From a local met in the Birmingham market.. ❄️ ICE NEXT WEEK? Lots of questions about the First Alert Weather Day we declared for next week regarding possible winter mischief. Both GFS/Euro guidance shows a shallow layer of frigid arctic air settling in on Monday. As this happens, moisture will start overrunning the state, as a low pressure system takes shape over the Gulf. This could bring a period of winter precipitation and the types would primarily be freezing rain or sleet. There are some big differences in data regarding timing and amount of precipitation. The highly reliable ensemble data keeps the heaviest precipitation south. I wouldn’t cancel any big plans until we get a better handle on the amount of precipitation and timing. However, know we could have impacts and it’s one of the reasons why we’ve declared another First Alert Weather day.
 

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While western areas of the south remain favored for wintery weather, we are all still in the game at this point. If one looks at the 500mb vorticity details, it's clear that in the 4-8 day range, the big closed low associated with the impending Midwest blizzard is the main driver once it reaches eastern Canada. The vortices orbiting that newly formed TPV are driving the bulk of the run-to-run changes we're seeing and nothing can be remotely trusted until the storm passes.
 
Lots of shearing out on gefs members. But we’re trending the right way with the initial trough resulting in more high pressure and the front penetrating east of the apps. Just need to tweak the wave timing on it
 
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